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Paul

Model output discussion - here comes the beast!

Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

We also have a special post SSW cold spell discussion open here:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89358-ssw-related-cold-spell-will-it-wont-it/

Thank you!

Message added by Paul

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ARPEGE officially on board. Fantastic position of HP. -12 uppers. Snow showers starting to pile in from North Sea in eastern areas at T72.

image.png

image.png

 

Edited by WalsallWeather123

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The UKMO is great , it starts off with an east ne flow and then round to the ese which means parts of the south and sw could also see some Lake effect snow .

This looks like a race later between more forcing pushing south from the Pacific and low pressure heading ne. This will likely flatten the low and get more trough disruption eastwards.

The GFS looks far too overblown and given its energy bias I expect that will edge south again in later outputs .

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I'm not surprised GFS is struggling. With those 850s over a relatively warm sea's there is scope for just about anything to happen. I'd imagine anything in the SE will stay as snow as long as uppers remain even fractionally below zero, so the precipitation charts might over estimate the 'rain' anyway.  

 

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27 minutes ago, Buzz said:

I suggest reading the following excellent post for clarification on the above:

 

I enjoy and respect BB62 posts as much as the next man but the reality is that some modelling (gfs mainly) has shown higher uppers pushing in from the south thereby bringing a degree of marginality to proceedings. 

Personally I think the gfs is being a bit (as usual) progressive and everything will be a bit further south, however if something is being modelled it’s a little arrogant to shut down discussion on it just because it doesn’t fit with your particular agenda

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8 minutes ago, BlastFromThePastbuzz said:

Severe flooding possible across the south if that LP pushes further north. Anyway so far away at this stage. 

If ukmo is correct South East England and southern England will need call army in to dig them out ..:rofl:

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7 minutes ago, chicken soup said:

And me....I live in that hole ...very disturbing and it keeps showing up.

Doesnt make sense does it lol

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I'm seeing the word 'marginality' for the south-east - forgive my ignorance but is that in reference to the low pressure system at the end of the week, as opposed to Monday-Wednesday?

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4 minutes ago, Stu_London said:

I enjoy and respect BB62 posts as much as the next man but the reality is that some modelling (gfs mainly) has shown higher uppers pushing in from the south thereby bringing a degree of marginality to proceedings. 

Personally I think the gfs is being a bit (as usual) progressive and everything will be a bit further south, however if something is being modelled it’s a little arrogant to shut down discussion on it just because it doesn’t fit with your particular agenda

Yeah obviously its a possibility but if you know the historical bias of the model and also what normally happen when the GFS forecasts it you can throw doubt...just as you could when it attempted to almost erase the easterly as it was overdoing the northerly extent then as well.

I think this evolution will happen..but not with this LP but with the next one.

 

Edited by kold weather

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Guys - 2400 people on here at 4:45 on a Friday afternoon including 1800 watching guests.

What will it be like when it snows?

The Netwweather forum record must go surely?

MIA

 

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2 minutes ago, Big Snow said:

I'm seeing the word 'marginality' for the south-east - forgive my ignorance but is that in reference to the low pressure system at the end of the week, as opposed to Monday-Wednesday?

Yes it would be the end of the week, but the likelihood is, based on history that the gfs is being over progressive 

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2 minutes ago, Big Snow said:

I'm seeing the word 'marginality' for the south-east - forgive my ignorance but is that in reference to the low pressure system at the end of the week, as opposed to Monday-Wednesday?

Yes. For Friday.  But dont think we need worry yet 

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Just now, Big Snow said:

I'm seeing the word 'marginality' for the south-east - forgive my ignorance but is that in reference to the low pressure system at the end of the week, as opposed to Monday-Wednesday?

Yes no marginality at all between Monday and Wednesday.

As for the GFS it’s likely an outlier solution, historically even if you don’t take into account its bias of taking too much energy ne against a block  these set ups normally see southwards corrections nearer the time.

Of course there’s always a first but in terms of odds the pattern is more likely to correct south than further north .

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2 minutes ago, Big Snow said:

I'm seeing the word 'marginality' for the south-east - forgive my ignorance but is that in reference to the low pressure system at the end of the week, as opposed to Monday-Wednesday?

 

I wouldn't worry about something that's years away as we speak for the charts.

You're prime position for some serious cold.

Enjoy the ride. Don't worry about what may or may not happen.

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The GEM has gone off on one as early as T120, with most of the geopot heights deciding not to retrogress but instead to head for Moscow:

gemnh-0-120.png?12

Still cold and snowy though.

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12z GFS has the cold peaking on Wednesday and Thursday where afternoon temps remain sub-zero

120-778UK.thumb.GIF.ae52472718184a59c8249f01742f032a.GIF144-778UK.thumb.GIF.ac0057e9cc8e5feccc0a6073c90f8da9.GIF

The end of next week and into the following GFS 12z shows temps recover slightly for some

168-778UK.thumb.GIF.882534a3541b7d9ad0d5d54bad1af321.GIF192-778UK.thumb.GIF.a208d2ecb1689959a35bb4b52568675e.GIF

216-778UK.thumb.GIF.624d6090dcbfd21a9a955538760a8b40.GIF240-778UK.thumb.GIF.0a00847945d7fc7137ccc7f6ff15690b.GIF

 

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Also finally it needs to be said this is not a normal setup. Its super rare to get a LP to bump into -15c air...its not your typical southerly breakdown on the GFS.

GEM is also throwing out interesting pattern with a LP exiting the SW at 120hrs.

Edited by kold weather

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yet more output upgrades.....*yawn* change the record, it's boring now....what a boring climate we have, all it seems to want to do is snow all of the time and blow hoolies from the east.....I've heard about this mythical beast called a 'Pest from the West' influenced by a body of water called the 'Atlantic'  (no, I've never heard of it either)....Perhaps one day we'll get out of this boring rut of incoming weather and get to see one of these mythical beasts again?  :drunk::crazy:

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3 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Guys - 2400 people on here at 4:45 on a Friday afternoon including 1800 watching guests.

What will it be like when it snows?

The Netwweather forum record must go surely?

MIA

 

3100 is the current record at 11/01/2017 22:34 according to the counter on the home page. I think it will be smashed next week!

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ARPEGE preciptiation charts vs HI RES ARPEGE precipitation chart at T120. Hi ris shows snow is more scattered and not widespread as the first chart shows.

image.png

image.png

Edited by WalsallWeather123

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The snow depths by next weekend are looking very nice.  But I'd imagine they'd be much deeper than shown here :)

snow depth.png

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Control - are you kidding me?!  wowza. 

gens-0-1-144.png

Edit: the actual "front" misses the UK in this scenario, but instead it injects lost of moisture over the north sea, funneling very heavy snow showers on a NE/SW track down the central swathe of the UK. Warmer uppers mind you, need to get those deck chairs out with uppers reaching a balmy -9. 

Edit again: so disruptive in fact that it merges with a feature in the Atlantic. I'd be buried! Can't keep up with the potential!!! 
gens-0-1-174.png

Edited by ITSY

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Just now, Youcan'tbecirrus said:

It is consistent with what they showed on BBC at 9.55 last night though Nick so it seems to be a recurring trend.

The trend to see a low head ne seems fine , but just going on past experience low pressure rarely makes as much northwards progress as initially forecast by the models in this type of set up.

We’ll see over the next few days but there’s a lot to enjoy before even worrying about this low to the sw.

PS your handle name is great ! :)

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9 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Also finally it needs to be said this is not a normal setup. Its super rare to get a LP to bump into -15c air...its not your typical southerly breakdown on the GFS.

GEM is also throwing out interesting pattern with a LP exiting the SW at 120hrs.

Think the 12Z GEM had too much jelly this afternoon as its Easterly for the U.K. next Wednesday looks very ‘wobbly’!

F81E0447-5623-42EB-913B-ED2DAF067C96.thumb.png.004d0a38873167e1c444de5472186ad0.png

 

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1 minute ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

Think the 12Z GEM had too much jelly this afternoon as its Easterly for the U.K. next Wednesday looks very ‘wobbly’!

F81E0447-5623-42EB-913B-ED2DAF067C96.thumb.png.004d0a38873167e1c444de5472186ad0.png

 

I'd take a wobbly flow with the amount of features it has running across the country!! 

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