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Model output discussion - here comes the beast!


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Early guidance forewarning of next weeks weather was issued earlier on, and this has been further enhanced with extended outlooks in bulletins. AFAIK (comms not being my area) public agencies and majo

Come on those looking for the breadown before the major cold and snow has begun You will be very lucky if that is the correct word to see this in ANY winter in the rest of your lives I would sugg

Microscale detail absorbing an awful lot of attention on here, when in reality it is a waste of emotion. The macroscale pattern is now fixed - it will not change significantly now for the start of nex

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Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex

    I'm not surprised GFS is struggling. With those 850s over a relatively warm sea's there is scope for just about anything to happen. I'd imagine anything in the SE will stay as snow as long as uppers remain even fractionally below zero, so the precipitation charts might over estimate the 'rain' anyway.  

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
    27 minutes ago, Buzz said:

    I suggest reading the following excellent post for clarification on the above:

     

    I enjoy and respect BB62 posts as much as the next man but the reality is that some modelling (gfs mainly) has shown higher uppers pushing in from the south thereby bringing a degree of marginality to proceedings. 

    Personally I think the gfs is being a bit (as usual) progressive and everything will be a bit further south, however if something is being modelled it’s a little arrogant to shut down discussion on it just because it doesn’t fit with your particular agenda

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    Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing rain heat waves
  • Location: Orpington Kent
    8 minutes ago, BlastFromThePastbuzz said:

    Severe flooding possible across the south if that LP pushes further north. Anyway so far away at this stage. 

    If ukmo is correct South East England and southern England will need call army in to dig them out ..:rofl:

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    Posted
  • Location: Darwen (Near Blackburn) 210m ASL
  • Location: Darwen (Near Blackburn) 210m ASL
    7 minutes ago, chicken soup said:

    And me....I live in that hole ...very disturbing and it keeps showing up.

    Doesnt make sense does it lol

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    Posted
  • Location: Cricklewood, north London
  • Location: Cricklewood, north London

    I'm seeing the word 'marginality' for the south-east - forgive my ignorance but is that in reference to the low pressure system at the end of the week, as opposed to Monday-Wednesday?

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
    4 minutes ago, Stu_London said:

    I enjoy and respect BB62 posts as much as the next man but the reality is that some modelling (gfs mainly) has shown higher uppers pushing in from the south thereby bringing a degree of marginality to proceedings. 

    Personally I think the gfs is being a bit (as usual) progressive and everything will be a bit further south, however if something is being modelled it’s a little arrogant to shut down discussion on it just because it doesn’t fit with your particular agenda

    Yeah obviously its a possibility but if you know the historical bias of the model and also what normally happen when the GFS forecasts it you can throw doubt...just as you could when it attempted to almost erase the easterly as it was overdoing the northerly extent then as well.

    I think this evolution will happen..but not with this LP but with the next one.

     

    Edited by kold weather
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    Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl .
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl .

    Guys - 2400 people on here at 4:45 on a Friday afternoon including 1800 watching guests.

    What will it be like when it snows?

    The Netwweather forum record must go surely?

    MIA

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
    2 minutes ago, Big Snow said:

    I'm seeing the word 'marginality' for the south-east - forgive my ignorance but is that in reference to the low pressure system at the end of the week, as opposed to Monday-Wednesday?

    Yes it would be the end of the week, but the likelihood is, based on history that the gfs is being over progressive 

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    Posted
  • Location: South ockendon essex
  • Weather Preferences: thunderstorms and HEAVY snow
  • Location: South ockendon essex
    2 minutes ago, Big Snow said:

    I'm seeing the word 'marginality' for the south-east - forgive my ignorance but is that in reference to the low pressure system at the end of the week, as opposed to Monday-Wednesday?

    Yes. For Friday.  But dont think we need worry yet 

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
    Just now, Big Snow said:

    I'm seeing the word 'marginality' for the south-east - forgive my ignorance but is that in reference to the low pressure system at the end of the week, as opposed to Monday-Wednesday?

    Yes no marginality at all between Monday and Wednesday.

    As for the GFS it’s likely an outlier solution, historically even if you don’t take into account its bias of taking too much energy ne against a block  these set ups normally see southwards corrections nearer the time.

    Of course there’s always a first but in terms of odds the pattern is more likely to correct south than further north .

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    Posted
  • Location: Codicote, Hertfordshire
  • Location: Codicote, Hertfordshire
    2 minutes ago, Big Snow said:

    I'm seeing the word 'marginality' for the south-east - forgive my ignorance but is that in reference to the low pressure system at the end of the week, as opposed to Monday-Wednesday?

     

    I wouldn't worry about something that's years away as we speak for the charts.

    You're prime position for some serious cold.

    Enjoy the ride. Don't worry about what may or may not happen.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

    The GEM has gone off on one as early as T120, with most of the geopot heights deciding not to retrogress but instead to head for Moscow:

    gemnh-0-120.png?12

    Still cold and snowy though.

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    12z GFS has the cold peaking on Wednesday and Thursday where afternoon temps remain sub-zero

    120-778UK.thumb.GIF.ae52472718184a59c8249f01742f032a.GIF144-778UK.thumb.GIF.ac0057e9cc8e5feccc0a6073c90f8da9.GIF

    The end of next week and into the following GFS 12z shows temps recover slightly for some

    168-778UK.thumb.GIF.882534a3541b7d9ad0d5d54bad1af321.GIF192-778UK.thumb.GIF.a208d2ecb1689959a35bb4b52568675e.GIF

    216-778UK.thumb.GIF.624d6090dcbfd21a9a955538760a8b40.GIF240-778UK.thumb.GIF.0a00847945d7fc7137ccc7f6ff15690b.GIF

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    Also finally it needs to be said this is not a normal setup. Its super rare to get a LP to bump into -15c air...its not your typical southerly breakdown on the GFS.

    GEM is also throwing out interesting pattern with a LP exiting the SW at 120hrs.

    Edited by kold weather
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    Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland

    yet more output upgrades.....*yawn* change the record, it's boring now....what a boring climate we have, all it seems to want to do is snow all of the time and blow hoolies from the east.....I've heard about this mythical beast called a 'Pest from the West' influenced by a body of water called the 'Atlantic'  (no, I've never heard of it either)....Perhaps one day we'll get out of this boring rut of incoming weather and get to see one of these mythical beasts again?  :drunk::crazy:

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    Posted
  • Location: Haywards Heath
  • Location: Haywards Heath
    3 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

    Guys - 2400 people on here at 4:45 on a Friday afternoon including 1800 watching guests.

    What will it be like when it snows?

    The Netwweather forum record must go surely?

    MIA

     

    3100 is the current record at 11/01/2017 22:34 according to the counter on the home page. I think it will be smashed next week!

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level

    The snow depths by next weekend are looking very nice.  But I'd imagine they'd be much deeper than shown here :)

    snow depth.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Location: Cambridge

    Control - are you kidding me?!  wowza. 

    gens-0-1-144.png

    Edit: the actual "front" misses the UK in this scenario, but instead it injects lost of moisture over the north sea, funneling very heavy snow showers on a NE/SW track down the central swathe of the UK. Warmer uppers mind you, need to get those deck chairs out with uppers reaching a balmy -9. 

    Edit again: so disruptive in fact that it merges with a feature in the Atlantic. I'd be buried! Can't keep up with the potential!!! 
    gens-0-1-174.png

    Edited by ITSY
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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
    Just now, Youcan'tbecirrus said:

    It is consistent with what they showed on BBC at 9.55 last night though Nick so it seems to be a recurring trend.

    The trend to see a low head ne seems fine , but just going on past experience low pressure rarely makes as much northwards progress as initially forecast by the models in this type of set up.

    We’ll see over the next few days but there’s a lot to enjoy before even worrying about this low to the sw.

    PS your handle name is great ! :)

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    Posted
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands
    9 minutes ago, kold weather said:

    Also finally it needs to be said this is not a normal setup. Its super rare to get a LP to bump into -15c air...its not your typical southerly breakdown on the GFS.

    GEM is also throwing out interesting pattern with a LP exiting the SW at 120hrs.

    Think the 12Z GEM had too much jelly this afternoon as its Easterly for the U.K. next Wednesday looks very ‘wobbly’!

    F81E0447-5623-42EB-913B-ED2DAF067C96.thumb.png.004d0a38873167e1c444de5472186ad0.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Location: Cambridge
    1 minute ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

    Think the 12Z GEM had too much jelly this afternoon as its Easterly for the U.K. next Wednesday looks very ‘wobbly’!

    F81E0447-5623-42EB-913B-ED2DAF067C96.thumb.png.004d0a38873167e1c444de5472186ad0.png

     

    I'd take a wobbly flow with the amount of features it has running across the country!! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
    4 minutes ago, ITSY said:

    Control - are you kidding me?!  wowza. 

    gens-0-1-144.png

    Edit: the actual "front" misses the UK in this scenario, but instead it injects lost of moisture over the north sea, funneling very heavy snow showers on a NE/SW track down the central swathe of the UK. Warmer uppers mind you, need to get those deck chairs out with uppers reaching a balmy -9. 

    Interestingly the evolution is nearly identical to the12z GEM. That really is a bonkers run everyone! The angle of the low is more realistic though than the op due to it being further SE.

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    Message added by Paul

    Please only post model discussion in this thread 

    For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

    For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

    We also have a special post SSW cold spell discussion open here:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89358-ssw-related-cold-spell-will-it-wont-it/

    Thank you!

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