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Model output discussion - here comes the beast!


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Posted
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
    10 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

    Looks like the ICON has given up here, just a mass of nothingness over the near continent and British Isles.

    but wouldn't that be absolutely bitterly cold? under a slack low? possibly record breaking

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    Early guidance forewarning of next weeks weather was issued earlier on, and this has been further enhanced with extended outlooks in bulletins. AFAIK (comms not being my area) public agencies and majo

    Come on those looking for the breadown before the major cold and snow has begun You will be very lucky if that is the correct word to see this in ANY winter in the rest of your lives I would sugg

    Microscale detail absorbing an awful lot of attention on here, when in reality it is a waste of emotion. The macroscale pattern is now fixed - it will not change significantly now for the start of nex

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    Posted
  • Location: Nottingham
  • Location: Nottingham

    The ICON seems to get far too much attention on here! It wouldnt surprise me if it was mentioned more than the UKMO / gem

    If it weren't the first out the traps so to speak I doubt it would barely Register

    anyhow the models look insanely good if cold and snow are your things! Maybe a breakdown around next weekend  but given the depth of cold around by then it would surely be a snowy one!

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    Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
    4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    UKMO 144 much better with continued heavy snow across the UK

    8706B89E-9E5E-4AF6-9FBC-636EC0AC3E76.thumb.png.a83420f777f6188692dc3b4fb3cbc735.png

    Epic chart to be fair..... Got to be -17 or so in from the east...

     

    Won't the cold upper air start getting mixed out as any potential PPN hits southern counties though?

    Looks a risk that some Mediterranean air might get into some southern counties there.

    As ever, high risk but high reward if it comes off.  I'd rather have the risk of snowfall than no risk at all.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
    Just now, AWD said:

    Won't the cold upper air start getting mixed out as any potential PPN hits southern counties though?

    Looks a risk that some Mediterranean air might get into some southern counties there.

    As ever, high risk but high reward if it comes off.  I'd rather have the risk of snowfall than no risk at all.

    Not with an elongated low the general flow will still be east or south easterly. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

    The 500hpa temps are something to behold too:

    gfsnh-13-132.png?12

    -42C! 

    -27C or so required for snow as I recall, so I think we're safe with that parameter.

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    Posted
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales, Hot & Sunny or Cold & Sunny!
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland

    Stunning UKMO 120 charts! Seriously can’t take anymore of this - it is utterly phenomenal! :yahoo::yahoo::yahoo:

    Just look at these wee delights! 

    Now that’s the real deal!!!!!! 

     

    84B41040-DA81-4603-9469-E46999E66A29.png

    BC45777B-E890-405A-82E7-D9280623C5CD.png

    1D03AF14-CC11-414C-84B3-F7EDD36B1E89.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Carmarthenshire
  • Location: Carmarthenshire
    2 minutes ago, AWD said:

    Won't the cold upper air start getting mixed out as any potential PPN hits southern counties though?

    Looks a risk that some Mediterranean air might get into some southern counties there.

    As ever, high risk but high reward if it comes off.  I'd rather have the risk of snowfall than no risk at all.

    I suggest reading the following excellent post for clarification on the above:

     

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    Posted
  • Location: west yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: west yorkshire

    That ukmo should come with an adult warning. That’s just pure filth. :cold::cold:

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    Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

    12z Arpege shows snow showers pushing well inland on Tuesday;

    arpege-1-100-0.thumb.png.d3915494b0b36c9b2469fdcc24b75a01.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Maidstone ❄kent❄
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Snow & Snow.
  • Location: Maidstone ❄kent❄
    2 minutes ago, kev238 said:

    The ICON seems to get far too much attention on here! It wouldnt surprise me if it was mentioned more than the UKMO / gem

    If it weren't the first out the traps so to speak I doubt it would barely Register

    anyhow the models look insanely good if cold and snow are your things! Maybe a breakdown around next weekend  but given the depth of cold around by then it would surely be a snowy one!

    I would say maybe less cold but not a breakdown.... and even then just temporary less cold for a day maybe. That's one MEGA big cold pool that will not be pushed away anytime soon.. .

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

    Southern England is going to get buried,the met will go level 4 warning if this keeps showing wow ,country coming to a standstill

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    Posted
  • Location: Nottingham
  • Location: Nottingham

    1 in 3 GFS runs is bringing in this snow from the south risk- I think that is a fair estimate of the chance of it directly hitting the uk

    of course if it moves as shown on the most recent GFS there is a risk of some milder air getting into some southern / south western parts 

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

    Ukmo t144 & GFS Low further south on ukmo. Detail on this will take another 72 hours or so but very interesting.

    IMG_0617.PNG

    IMG_0618.PNG

    Edited by That ECM
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    Posted
  • Location: Home: Nr Malton, Howardian Hills 53m asl Work: North York Moors
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Home: Nr Malton, Howardian Hills 53m asl Work: North York Moors
    3 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

    Anyone got UKMO upper temps ? 

    UW120-7.GIF?23-17

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    Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

    h850t850eu.pngprectypeuktopo.png

    Hmm two runs in a row with the 'grazer' scenario.

    Now I really am thinking of that March 2013 let-down!

    h850t850eu.png prectypeuktopo.png

    Oh wait hang on I forgot, this is GFS; it's defying what the jet pattern dictates should occur and taking the low more N than E now:pardon:.

    I suppose it's not exactly out of the question that something like this could transpire. I can already hear the Londoners ranting :shok:.

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    Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (Central)
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (Central)

    GFS showing some potentially huge amounts of snowfall from the south later next week, but takes the low further north with less cold uppers for the south by Friday. 

     

    3257E0F9-4391-4880-B11F-176044697495-2835-0000031BE6DC173F.png

    Edited by danm
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    Message added by Paul

    Please only post model discussion in this thread 

    For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

    For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

    We also have a special post SSW cold spell discussion open here:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89358-ssw-related-cold-spell-will-it-wont-it/

    Thank you!

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