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Paul

Model output discussion - here comes the beast!

Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

We also have a special post SSW cold spell discussion open here:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89358-ssw-related-cold-spell-will-it-wont-it/

Thank you!

Message added by Paul

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Just now, Snowy L said:

A lot of people, me included, dont care for temperatures of -10c if its going to be bone dry? Not taking any one individual run too seriously though, just pointing out why some would, justifiably imo, be concerned by the 12z were it to become a trend.

It's far from bone dry. Not that there is any point in even looking at snow detail this far out. Models are rubbish with shower distribution even at short range.

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How long till the pub run?

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By the end of all this let's just hope shortwaves become little snowmakers from the East and are re-named snowwaves.

Edited by Day 10

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4 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

The concentration of runs with -10C uppers suggests a transfer of the coldest weather to the north as we go into March

The coldest weather will inevitably transfer to the north though as the block moves into greenland 

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3 minutes ago, Dbarb said:

How long till the pub run?

Hold your horses, ECM 12z first!

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I don`t know which is better, these incredible uppers or the fact that the words `marginal` , `above 150m` and `the northern hills` will NOT be mentioned...

 

gfsnh-15-174.png?12

 

Edited by Stuie W

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My take on the GFS op run-

Should we take note of its output and look to see if it’s replicated in future runs? Absolutely.

Should we panic? Absolutely not. 

We have been spoiled with consecutive runs from all models showing a potentially historic cold/snowy spell, so a slightly different evolution was bound to show up. The 12z ensembles still look excellent. 

Even though I’m from London, I do understand the jitters from those up north. The high pressure developing too strongly and too far south could reduce the snow potential. However, it’s one run and currently we’re still on track for a notable cold spell. 

Edited by danm

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12 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Nope - Same starting data, same resolution. 

The control is run with the same lower resolution as the rest of the GEFS members, which is a lower resolution than the GFS.

If the control had the same starting data and same resolution then there wouldn't be any difference between the control and the operational. The reason why they deviate is because of the resolution difference between them.

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Looking great at T92 on ECM. High aligning lovely. No shortwaves. Better orientation than 6z. Cold should come in quicker here. Looking fantastic!

Screenshot_20180220-181541.png

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Center of the High at t96 is a good deal further North than on the GFS at the same time point.

UKMO and ECM: center of the high is east of Svalbard

GFS: center of the high is over North Scandinavia.

 

 

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Pretty pleased with the ECM so far, the Finnish low can be ruled out haha.

Looks quite tidy and the SLP over Scandi is a bit lower too, more beneficial for northern areas later?

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2 minutes ago, Decemberof2010 said:

ECM looking more like UKMO than GFS at 96h. Forgive me if I'm wrong here I'm still learning lol

I'd say you're bang on.

UE96-21.gif

ECE1-96.gif

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Wow t120 really highlights the difference in high pressure placement between ECM/UKMO and GFS even further. That is a massive difference at only 96-120hours.

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Not sure what to make of 120. Seems a shortwave has formed over Finland. Probs delay the proper cold again. Lets see how it progresses

Screenshot_20180220-182340.png

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1 minute ago, SizzlingHeat said:

Not sure what to make of 120. Seems a shortwave has formed over Finland. Probs delay the proper cold again. Lets see how it progresses

Screenshot_20180220-182340.png

I don't see any short wave over Finland though you probs see it (I have little experience)

Edited by parrotingfantasist

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Just now, SizzlingHeat said:

Not sure what to make of 120. Seems a shortwave has formed over Finland. Probs delay the proper cold again. Lets see how it progresses

Screenshot_20180220-182340.png

That little feature is present in the ECM, UKMO and GFS. Stop scaring us lol.

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1 minute ago, SizzlingHeat said:

Not sure what to make of 120. Seems a shortwave has formed over Finland. Probs delay the proper cold again. Lets see how it progresses

Screenshot_20180220-182340.png

The one next to Norway? Nah that one is fine as the Scandi high and Svalbard high have already linked up :)

Edited by Quicksilver1989

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The beast is in at 144 ecm . Good agreement on that now. 😁

IMG_1679.PNG

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