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Model output discussion - here comes the beast!

Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

We also have a special post SSW cold spell discussion open here:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89358-ssw-related-cold-spell-will-it-wont-it/

Thank you!

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1 minute ago, Nick123 said:

Silly question alert. If that was to verify.... it looks very snowy for the north? Or am I reading it wrong?

Later in the run perhaps as the low heads north. Not a lot of difference compared to the 6z, though as @beng notes the cold pool over E Europe is more favourable I think (to hopefully stop the milder air progressing too far north and prolonging/renewing the cold).

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UKMO 12z keeping the core of any frontal snowfall on Thursday south of the M4;

UN120-21.thumb.gif.3abc1c1ae9db47d37209c6c4a083b1a3.gif

Frequent snow showers for Scotland and NE England.

On Friday, the 12z UKMO intensifies the LP, probably due to an ever increasingly tight thermal gradient, giving it more "oomph" to make headway into SW England.

UN144-21.thumb.gif.b196d6c897f654dcc2688ff9b539ca24.gif

I will await the upper air temp charts but I would guess "squeaky bum" time the further south you are.  Low thickness values might help those in the SW though?

 

Edited by AWD
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1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

By that time the uk will be paralysed by snow, ice and severe penetrating frosts..Here comes the Beast on the Gfs 12z and it's very hungry!:D:cold-emoji::shok:

I still don’t buy these over progressive options. I think the low will pass through France, keeping us all on the colder side.

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1 minute ago, AWD said:

UKMO 12z keeping the core of any frontal snowfall on Thursday south of the M4;

UN120-21.thumb.gif.3abc1c1ae9db47d37209c6c4a083b1a3.gif

Frequent snow showers for Scotland and NE England.

On Friday, the 12z UKMO intensifies the LP, probably due to an ever increasingly tight thermal gradient, giving it more "oomph" to make headway into SW England.

UN144-21.thumb.gif.b196d6c897f654dcc2688ff9b539ca24.gif

I will await the upper air temp charts but I would guess "squeaky bum" time the further south you are.

 

Squeaky.

UW144-7.GIF

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GFS seems very consistent in bringing the low straight up towards the UK. Almost no change on the 6z

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5 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

In the end when we reach Wednesday then the coldest air is over us, so the quicker the the progress of retrograding core heights to Greenland and dropping low heights into Scandinavia the better in keeping that low near the Azores further south as it moves into Europe.

GFS/UKMO/GEM at day 5

gfs-0-120.png?12   UW120-21.GIF?24-17   gem-0-120.png?12

Once low heights move towards the NE, this will reinvigorate the Euro trough and parent low to our south will tend to move on a more easterly vector rather than towards the UK to bring milder air. We don't want the heights moving too far west of course as this is a classic west based -NAO which will allow pressure to rise over parts of Europe, a cold north easterly could become a very wet south westerly if the jet gets too far north.

I know snow is our main excitement but has anyone noticed the winds?? 

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1 minute ago, Stuie W said:

Squeaky.

UW144-7.GIF

An all snow event I would suggest looking at those uppers?

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7 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

In the end when we reach Wednesday then the coldest air is over us, so the quicker the the progress of retrograding core heights to Greenland and dropping low heights into Scandinavia the better in keeping that low near the Azores further south as it moves into Europe.

GFS/UKMO/GEM at day 5

gfs-0-120.png?12   UW120-21.GIF?24-17   gem-0-120.png?12

Once low heights move towards the NE, this will reinvigorate the Euro trough and parent low to our south will tend to move on a more easterly vector rather than towards the UK to bring milder air. We don't want the heights moving too far west of course as this is a classic west based -NAO which will allow pressure to rise over parts of Europe, a cold north easterly could become a very wet south westerly if the jet gets too far north.

I think that looks good on UKMO and GEM.  LP to move ENE over northern France to eventually centre over Benelux region....continued NE/ ENE flow for UK

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Just now, clactongaz said:

Here she comes

image.png

Apologies for my ignorance but what does that show?

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The low looks like it loses intensity as it moves north. I guess that’s a good thing. The 6z I thought looked stronger

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3 minutes ago, snowstorm445 said:

GFS seems very consistent in bringing the low straight up towards the UK. Almost no change on the 6z

Quite a notable difference in regards to the 850hPa temperatures, higher uppers stall along southern coastal areas with gradual mixing out. 

Edited by MattTarrant
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1 minute ago, Stuie W said:

Squeaky.

UW144-7.GIF

Actually, to be fair, that is not as bad as I thought it would look for the south.

Those 850hpa temps plus low thickness values progged might keep parts of Wales & SW England white rather than wet.  Shame we can't see the forecast Dp's for those charts.

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Just now, Kentish Snowman said:

An all snow event I would suggest looking at those uppers?

Given we had snow about 3 weeks ago from that cold front which stalled and died over us I’d say yes. 

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Just now, Kentish Snowman said:

An all snow event I would suggest looking at those uppers?

Agreed and that's not even factoring in the surface cold.

Strengthening agreement on some serious snowy disruption for the southern half of the UK on Friday given the GFS/UKMO and GEM updates.

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UKMO wouldn’t be marginal.

GFS a bit less progressive and the low is less deep. Too marginal in the far south for a time before cold uppers move back in.

Edited by MattStoke
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1 minute ago, MattTarrant said:

Quite a notable difference in regards to the 850hPa temperatures, hihers uppers stall along southern coastal areas with gradual mixing out. 

True that actually, was just looking at the pressure charts. Also very cold uppers still holding on in most across the northern half of the British Isles.

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120z UKMO looks okay and surprised from that it moves that far north but as said uppers have been mixed out BUT not that much...just wish we had a different trend which doesn't seem to be going the way of keeping the low to our south (for locked in cold).

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Very close run thing for the south on the 12z GFS, probably another 20-30 miles south and an all snow event for everyone.

As it happens, GFS goes for a big snow event west of say a line from Portsmouth north and a freezing rain event further east in the SE. Back to snow later.

BETTER run than the 06z GFS for sure but still mighty close either way!!

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Great chart viewing

GFs 156 takes a big move to the ECM with easterlies ahead of the low now - still marginal for the south - but working into a better pattern with each run-

6ED33E0A-EAF7-4BA3-98F4-70B9D9CB1E0B.thumb.png.4ddd95e74d01d05d330ead4375a8c9a4.png

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Whilst a more prolonged spell of snow sets in across Southern Britain, heavy snow showers still pile into the North East.

gfs-0-150.png?12

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