Jump to content
Holidays
Local
Radar
Windy?
Paul

Model output discussion - here comes the beast!

Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

We also have a special post SSW cold spell discussion open here:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89358-ssw-related-cold-spell-will-it-wont-it/

Thank you!

Message added by Paul

Recommended Posts

1 minute ago, Nick123 said:

Silly question alert. If that was to verify.... it looks very snowy for the north? Or am I reading it wrong?

Later in the run perhaps as the low heads north. Not a lot of difference compared to the 6z, though as @beng notes the cold pool over E Europe is more favourable I think (to hopefully stop the milder air progressing too far north and prolonging/renewing the cold).

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

UKMO 12z keeping the core of any frontal snowfall on Thursday south of the M4;

UN120-21.thumb.gif.3abc1c1ae9db47d37209c6c4a083b1a3.gif

Frequent snow showers for Scotland and NE England.

On Friday, the 12z UKMO intensifies the LP, probably due to an ever increasingly tight thermal gradient, giving it more "oomph" to make headway into SW England.

UN144-21.thumb.gif.b196d6c897f654dcc2688ff9b539ca24.gif

I will await the upper air temp charts but I would guess "squeaky bum" time the further south you are.  Low thickness values might help those in the SW though?

 

Edited by AWD
  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

By that time the uk will be paralysed by snow, ice and severe penetrating frosts..Here comes the Beast on the Gfs 12z and it's very hungry!:D:cold-emoji::shok:

I still don’t buy these over progressive options. I think the low will pass through France, keeping us all on the colder side.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, AWD said:

UKMO 12z keeping the core of any frontal snowfall on Thursday south of the M4;

UN120-21.thumb.gif.3abc1c1ae9db47d37209c6c4a083b1a3.gif

Frequent snow showers for Scotland and NE England.

On Friday, the 12z UKMO intensifies the LP, probably due to an ever increasingly tight thermal gradient, giving it more "oomph" to make headway into SW England.

UN144-21.thumb.gif.b196d6c897f654dcc2688ff9b539ca24.gif

I will await the upper air temp charts but I would guess "squeaky bum" time the further south you are.

 

Squeaky.

UW144-7.GIF

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GFS seems very consistent in bringing the low straight up towards the UK. Almost no change on the 6z

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

In the end when we reach Wednesday then the coldest air is over us, so the quicker the the progress of retrograding core heights to Greenland and dropping low heights into Scandinavia the better in keeping that low near the Azores further south as it moves into Europe.

GFS/UKMO/GEM at day 5

gfs-0-120.png?12   UW120-21.GIF?24-17   gem-0-120.png?12

Once low heights move towards the NE, this will reinvigorate the Euro trough and parent low to our south will tend to move on a more easterly vector rather than towards the UK to bring milder air. We don't want the heights moving too far west of course as this is a classic west based -NAO which will allow pressure to rise over parts of Europe, a cold north easterly could become a very wet south westerly if the jet gets too far north.

I know snow is our main excitement but has anyone noticed the winds?? 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Stuie W said:

Squeaky.

UW144-7.GIF

An all snow event I would suggest looking at those uppers?

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

In the end when we reach Wednesday then the coldest air is over us, so the quicker the the progress of retrograding core heights to Greenland and dropping low heights into Scandinavia the better in keeping that low near the Azores further south as it moves into Europe.

GFS/UKMO/GEM at day 5

gfs-0-120.png?12   UW120-21.GIF?24-17   gem-0-120.png?12

Once low heights move towards the NE, this will reinvigorate the Euro trough and parent low to our south will tend to move on a more easterly vector rather than towards the UK to bring milder air. We don't want the heights moving too far west of course as this is a classic west based -NAO which will allow pressure to rise over parts of Europe, a cold north easterly could become a very wet south westerly if the jet gets too far north.

I think that looks good on UKMO and GEM.  LP to move ENE over northern France to eventually centre over Benelux region....continued NE/ ENE flow for UK

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, clactongaz said:

Here she comes

image.png

Apologies for my ignorance but what does that show?

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The low looks like it loses intensity as it moves north. I guess that’s a good thing. The 6z I thought looked stronger

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, snowstorm445 said:

GFS seems very consistent in bringing the low straight up towards the UK. Almost no change on the 6z

Quite a notable difference in regards to the 850hPa temperatures, higher uppers stall along southern coastal areas with gradual mixing out. 

Edited by MattTarrant
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Stuie W said:

Squeaky.

UW144-7.GIF

Actually, to be fair, that is not as bad as I thought it would look for the south.

Those 850hpa temps plus low thickness values progged might keep parts of Wales & SW England white rather than wet.  Shame we can't see the forecast Dp's for those charts.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Kentish Snowman said:

An all snow event I would suggest looking at those uppers?

Given we had snow about 3 weeks ago from that cold front which stalled and died over us I’d say yes. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Kentish Snowman said:

An all snow event I would suggest looking at those uppers?

Agreed and that's not even factoring in the surface cold.

Strengthening agreement on some serious snowy disruption for the southern half of the UK on Friday given the GFS/UKMO and GEM updates.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

UKMO wouldn’t be marginal.

GFS a bit less progressive and the low is less deep. Too marginal in the far south for a time before cold uppers move back in.

Edited by MattStoke
  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, MattTarrant said:

Quite a notable difference in regards to the 850hPa temperatures, hihers uppers stall along southern coastal areas with gradual mixing out. 

True that actually, was just looking at the pressure charts. Also very cold uppers still holding on in most across the northern half of the British Isles.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

120z UKMO looks okay and surprised from that it moves that far north but as said uppers have been mixed out BUT not that much...just wish we had a different trend which doesn't seem to be going the way of keeping the low to our south (for locked in cold).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Very close run thing for the south on the 12z GFS, probably another 20-30 miles south and an all snow event for everyone.

As it happens, GFS goes for a big snow event west of say a line from Portsmouth north and a freezing rain event further east in the SE. Back to snow later.

BETTER run than the 06z GFS for sure but still mighty close either way!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Great chart viewing

GFs 156 takes a big move to the ECM with easterlies ahead of the low now - still marginal for the south - but working into a better pattern with each run-

6ED33E0A-EAF7-4BA3-98F4-70B9D9CB1E0B.thumb.png.4ddd95e74d01d05d330ead4375a8c9a4.png

  • Like 7
  • Thanks 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Whilst a more prolonged spell of snow sets in across Southern Britain, heavy snow showers still pile into the North East.

gfs-0-150.png?12

  • Like 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

  • Similar Content

    • By Paul
      Here we go with a fresh hunt for cold thread as we move into a colder spell of weather and towards the end of Autumn.
      As this is a new thread for this season, there's perhaps been a bit of confusion over what does or doesn't fit in here. So to help out, and be transparent in terms of our moderation of the thread, these are the guidelines we're working to, so if everyone can aim to stay within them, happy days!
      This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:
      Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location. Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok. Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others) Hopefully this helps, if in doubt please ask a member of the team, and if you see a post you think may fall outside of these guidelines, please report it. 
      If you'd prefer a slower paced, more general (not cold slanted) model discussion, please head over to the general thread here.
      Model Output And Charts On Netweather:
      GFS
      GEFS Ensembles
      ECMWF
      ECMWF EPS
      NetWx-SR
      NetWx-MR
      Met-Office
      Fax
      GEM
      GFS Hourly
      Model Comparison
      Global Jet Stream
      Stratosphere
    • By Paul
      A new thread as we move past the mid-point of Autumn..
      This thread is for more general model discussion - eg without the specific focus on the hunt for cold weather, which can be found in the hunt for cold model thread. As ever, please keep it to the models in here.
      Want to view the model outputs?
      You can get all the major ones here on Netweather:
      GFS
      GEFS Ensembles
      ECMWF
      ECMWF EPS
      NetWx-SR
      NetWx-MR
      Met-Office
      Fax
      GEM
      GFS Hourly
      Model Comparison
      Global Jet Stream
      Stratosphere
    • By Paul
      With winter approaching over the horizon, a lot of people's thoughts are turning to cold weather potential, but while that's fine, it's not everyone's cup of tea. So, we've started this thread for the cold hunting side of model discussion, with a general discussion thread also up and running for those who'd rather look at all other aspects of the model output.
      Despite the focus on cold weather potential in this thread, please do keep it to the model output. 
      Want to view the model outputs?
      You can get all the major ones here on Netweather:
      GFS
      GEFS Ensembles
      ECMWF
      ECMWF EPS
      NetWx-SR
      NetWx-MR
      Met-Office
      Fax
      GEM
      GFS Hourly
      Model Comparison
      Global Jet Stream
      Stratosphere
    • By DiagonalRedLine
      Greetings!
      A shiny new model thread for the new season to continue your discussions of the latest charts etc. 🍂🍁
      There looks to be a lot of wild weather to come in the next few days with further showers, heavy rain and blowy weather. As many have illustrated, some particular concerns about Sunday where models, such as the GFS, show a troublesome storm exploding over the U.K! However, since it’s still a few days away and with models showing varied solutions on the Low Pressure system’s track and power, there are still questions as to how bad it may actually be.

      Even before then, there’s a risk of gales at times with strong South-Westerly to Westerly winds.
      Please keep on topic in here sticking to the models and please keep things friendly. Rude and insulting behaviour is not tolerated! 🚫
      If your post contains moans, banter and ramps, expect it to either get deleted ❌ or moved into a more suitable thread. Would be ideal to keep any banter and moaning to a minimum, otherwise this would be a more suited thread for it (especially if it’s about Autumn): 
      But a bit of moans, banter and ramping is acceptable in here as longs as it still has a fair amount of sensible model chat and is not overdone.
      Additionally, we also have a Short Range Model Chat thread, which can be used to discuss charts within the short range (preferably around the 0 to 72 hour mark, but up to 5 days would still be okay).
      But you can still use this main model thread if you wish for short range discussions.
      Also, we have a Model Tweets thread for posting tweets about the models:
      ...and a Stratospheric Temperature watch thread for monitoring the temperatures and conditions within the Stratosphere:
      If you do post tweets about the models in this main model thread, then make sure you include some reasonable discussion of the models in your post as well, otherwise it may get moved to the Model Tweets thread.
      (Edit): Having said that, we have lots of different topics in this forum section you can take part in, not just the ones mentioned above. 🙂
      —————————
      Want to view the model outputs?
      You can get all the major ones here on Netweather:
      GFS
      GEFS Ensembles
      ECMWF
      ECMWF EPS
      NetWx-SR 
      NetWx-MR
      Met-Office
      Fax
      GEM
      GFS Hourly
      Model Comparison
      Global Jet Stream
      Stratosphere
      (Link to previous thread):
      ——————————
      Thanks all!  
    • By Paul
      Please continue with the model discussion here, as we perhaps head towards the hottest spell of what has already been a rare, very dry, very warm summer?
      Please keep on topic in this thread, by only discussing the model output. This isn't the place to be discussing (or arguing) over weather preferences and the like, so please don't be tempted to go there! And as ever, please also keep it friendly...
      Want to view the model outputs?
      You can get all the major ones here on Netweather:
      GFS
      GEFS Ensembles
      ECMWF
      ECMWF EPS
      NetWx-SR
      NetWx-MR
      Met-Office
      Fax
      GEM
      GFS Hourly
      Model Comparison
      Global Jet Stream
      Stratosphere
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×