Model output discussion - here comes the beast!

[pages]

right after looking through all the ops and ensembles over last few days plus the strat profile,  I am going to take a wild punt that come 1st April the T-0 charts will look  similar to below. Even thou this chart is from the worse model. To add I reckon both the part of vortex above Scandie and low over Spanish coast will be slightly further East -150 miles.

That's my guess on seeing trend last few runs to drop the vortex into Svalbard/scandie later and further East each time and also slowly models showing more energy going under block into the med.

[edo]

thank you @Bring Back1962-63an outstanding well put together very readable post for even a novice

[Bottled Snow]

20 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Clusters finally out but what's this! The numbers do not add up to 51!! Have ECM censored some of them for being too cold? Or too mild???

Anyway this is what we have at T168

3 insanely cold clusters and 1 cluster (the one with 9 runs) that sees the cold pool hitting the southeast but high pressure dominated for the NW. So the "spoiler" cluster of the morning isn't repeated on the clusters we can see tonight. But what of the missing clusters...

EDIT: Just seen that the T156 is complete:

And you can see that the missing cluster is the most ridge dominated for the UK, similar to cluster 2 this morning. But only 8 members in it - the numbers considerably less than this morning's similar cluster. The trend is towards a direct hit from the cold pool, not away from it.

Excellent post and very encouraging to hear. Based on your summary and on GEFS also going for a more direct hit, albeit  rather shortwave crazy, we should see UKMO revert back to snowier charts tomorrow, versus the more southerly based high pressure and drier scenario on current run. 

[Bottled Snow]

5 minutes ago, edo said:

thank you @Bring Back1962-63an outstanding well put together very readable post for even a novice

here here ...excellent analysis as always by @Bring Back1962-63 

Edited February 22, 2018 by Bottled Snow

[inghams85]

33 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Clusters finally out but what's this! The numbers do not add up to 51!! Have ECM censored some of them for being too cold? Or too mild???

Anyway this is what we have at T168

3 insanely cold clusters and 1 cluster (the one with 9 runs) that sees the cold pool hitting the southeast but high pressure dominated for the NW. So the "spoiler" cluster of the morning isn't repeated on the clusters we can see tonight. But what of the missing clusters...

EDIT: Just seen that the T156 is complete:

And you can see that the missing cluster is the most ridge dominated for the UK, similar to cluster 2 this morning. But only 8 members in it - the numbers considerably less than this morning's similar cluster. The trend is towards a direct hit from the cold pool, not away from it.

What's become more and more apparent is instead of one wave of cold easterlies Monday onwards there have been two waves and it's the second wave the models have had trouble with but it's actually the coldest period. 5 days ago I saw some ensemble members with very cold temps around 2nd/3rd and at the time could nt understand i thought it was a trough dropping into Scandi from a Northerly. Now i think we know

Edited February 22, 2018 by inghams85

[metaltron]

31 minutes ago, Bring Back1962-63 said:

WHY I BELIEVE THAT THE GFS OUTPUT FOR WEEK 2 WAS COMPLETELY WRONG

My post yesterday (now buried on page 2 of this thread) compared the run into to the predicted upcoming cold spell to some earlier severe spells dating back to 1947 and up to 2013. I will make further reference to the March 2013 spell towards the end of this post when I compare it to the current and predicted set up. I intend to demonstrate with plenty of evidence why I feel that the GFS is being far too progressive in bringing back the Atlantic after the turn of the month. In fact, I do not necessarily see this happening until well after mid-March, although one or two very brief less cold interludes can never be completely ruled out. This was based on the previous few runs up to today's 12z. I see that the 18z (which rolled out while I was writing up this post) has a slightly colder solution again but still ends with less cold uppers over the UK and is a long way from the 12z ECM and UKMO solutions.. 

 

Loved the analogue post the other day; another analogue which could be used would be the cold spell from the end of February 1962 to the end of March. Here are some archive charts from that period:

 

Looks like a very similar evolution to the current pattern, in fact the Met Office noted how similar March 1962 and March 2013 when they investigated the reasons for the cold spell of the March 2013 occurring. Some more details about that spell can be found here (and yes there was plenty of snow!):

https://wansteadmeteo.wordpress.com/2018/02/16/the-cold-spell-of-february-march-1962/

Strangely, there was no SSW that year, which I was a bit taken aback by; maybe some source/data issues? It certainly looks a similar evolution to the one we have now, which has been caused by an SSW (since that is how some people here managed to predict it!). 

[The Eagle]

00z ICON is amazing

 

 

[CanadaAl]

2 hours ago, metaltron said:

Loved the analogue post the other day; another analogue which could be used would be the cold spell from the end of February 1962 to the end of March. Here are some archive charts from that period:

 

Looks like a very similar evolution to the current pattern, in fact the Met Office noted how similar March 1962 and March 2013 when they investigated the reasons for the cold spell of the March 2013 occurring. Some more details about that spell can be found here (and yes there was plenty of snow!):

https://wansteadmeteo.wordpress.com/2018/02/16/the-cold-spell-of-february-march-1962/

Strangely, there was no SSW that year, which I was a bit taken aback by; maybe some source/data issues? It certainly looks a similar evolution to the one we have now, which has been caused by an SSW (since that is how some people here managed to predict it!). 

Also, the days fell on the same dates in 1962. An omen pehaps? lol 

Amazing analysis from @Bring Back1962-63! 

[Cal]

Some serious cold to the east. Looks better alignment on the 00gfs

[AWD]

UKMO 0z a little south again for many people's perfection, but I am sure most will be happy if we end up with this T144 chart;

[MattStoke]

UKMO and GFS both look a but further north to me?

Edit: UKMO is quite a bit further north. Much better! GFS is slightly quicker too!

UKMO - 

Edited February 22, 2018 by MattStoke

[CanadaAl]

Notice that low disappears in this run on the GFS, like the UKMO. I think this would result in lower snow chances but a more direct colder feed. (-14 uppers in east anglia). Very interesting! 

Edited February 22, 2018 by CanadaAl

[chicken soup]

3 minutes ago, CanadaAl said:

Notice that low disappears in this run on the GFS, like the UKMO. I think this would result in lower snow chances but a more direct colder feed. (-14 uppers in east anglia). Very interesting! 

Hasnt dissapeared its just further up over central norway...i think thats the same low anyway.

[Cheshire Freeze]

No-one awake?

UKMO is a peach

GEM is just plain weird

Edited February 22, 2018 by CreweCold

[MattStoke]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

No-one awake?

UKMO is a peach

Yep. Looks great. A vast improvement.

GFS looking great too.

Great start to the day! 

[Bricriu]

We are on the cusp of something special. We just have to hope the ECM doesn't lose the plot on its next run.

Edited February 22, 2018 by Bricriu

[Rayth]

4 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Yep. Looks great. A vast improvement.

GFS looking great too.

Great start to the day! 

Yep ! Just hope the attention seeking ECM carries this on , I’m semi-confident given it’s clusters last night ? 

[SMU]

yesss UKMO IS textbook beasterly -

Model allignment is great now - just need the ECM to complete the hatrick this morning-

[Nick L]

What in god's name is the GFS doing in FI?

[Smiler1709]

4 minutes ago, Nick L said:

What in god's name is the GFS doing in FI?

Losing the plot? ?

[Decemberof2010]

Good morning my fellow non sleepers. UKMO (thankfully) is very good this morning. Let's just hope ECM doesn't upset us later on

[Scandinavian High.]

Gfs upgrade whole of UK locked in cold..

[Rayth]

6 minutes ago, Nick L said:

What in god's name is the GFS doing in FI?

I was hoping you could tell me Nick ! Maybe telling us to go back to sleep 

[Radiating Dendrite]

7 minutes ago, Nick L said:

What in god's name is the GFS doing in FI?

God knows - just said the same in the regional thread.

The UKMO though is superb!

[Mucka]

Very nice output this morning all around. 

ICON a real Ch,ch, chiller!