Far north and northeast of England - regional chat

[doctor32]

21 minutes ago, J-Man said:

Yeah but the uppers are colder so the difference between that and sea temp should be close to 2010. Also stronger sun = more convection and the fetch from Norway to our area or say Netherlands is neither here nor there.  Maybe im being over positive time will tell.

Bang on, not all about the actual temp of sst. It is the difference in temps and uppers are colder this time so in theory the diff is pretty much the same.

Lots of experienced guys on netweather and professionals highlighting the north east to get alot of sea affect snow next week

[Summer Sun]

13 minutes ago, J-Man said:

I really think that figure is massively underestimated. 15cm totals over a 4/5 day period? The latest BBC forecast was warning people to be prepared, stock up etc due to the snow potential. 15cm over that period wouldn't cause that much disruption, councils would be able to keep on top of it.

Place your bets. I'll go double that as minimum.

Ian F asked about the chart and if it was right: "This is the snow depth from the GFS 25km model. Temperatures will be very cold meaning light snow showers build up over the week rather than melting away"

[Snowmaggedon]

46 minutes ago, LeeSnowFan said:

The 06z ARPEGE has the snow tracking through Yorkshire around 3am Tuesday, forming into a large band of snow a little later, stretching from Scotland, all the way to North Midlands. The weather front itself gives 2-5cm widely by 6am, Suppose 5cm possible widely

 

[Airedalejoe]

2 hours ago, damianslaw said:

I'm normally in the NW thread, but given the expected weather in the days ahead, it seems apt that I stick to this thread, far north includes Cumbria anyway.

The long drawn nature of the easterly and the strength of the wind should help to drive precipitation across the Pennines deep into Cumbria. Last time we had a snowy easterly was late March 2013, but on this occasion air temps will be lower, less solar energy as well, so snow should fall down to sea level and stick despite the sunshine trying its best to thaw.

Already today, the ground is hard still out of the sun, and we have temps nudging 5 degrees. 

I'm hoping for a 26 Jan/27 Jan 1996 event when we managed 5 inches as a frontal/trough feature moved east-west. The synoptical build up mirrors late Jan 96 in many respects, but I think this one will be even colder!

Lots to look forward too, could be a memorable spell, that is talked about for a long time to come, held in similiar regard to March 2013 -but that was very exceptional, given the depth of cold that occurred at such a stage in the year, late Feb and early March has produced some notably very cold weather even in recent years, and sometimes the coldest weather of the year, a bit like early Sept delivering very warm heatwave type conditions. It also reemphasises the point that easterlies and northerlies become far more likely from mid Feb through until May, than at any other time of the year.

Everyone talks about March 13 but I cant remember anything about it being unusual, not sure if that's my age or the fact it missed my area!

The worst conditions I have ever seen here is a couple of weeks later than now in I think March 1979, huge drifts and many places cut off. 

I think that this is heading for a once in a lifetime event, eclipsing the ones you quote as well as '09 and '10!

[J-Man]

25 minutes ago, gordonm said:

where about are you on coast J-man? im about 4 miles in from druridge bay, yea 2010 was last time we had decent snow. we totally missed march 2013!

 

Amble, you must be Widdrington or maybe Acklington?

[Snowmaggedon]

6 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

The north east looks quite snowy mon night 

 

[Dahonis]

8 minutes ago, Snowmaggedon said:

 

We are getting closer in timescales ?

[4wd]

Has anyone else noticed intemittent pig slurry smell today?
I think they are stirring the storage in Holland as spreading is allowed again next week.

[NickR]

North York rather than NE favoured??

[North East Blizzard]

Looking at the latest models, I'd imagine we'll both do well out of this. Don't see any change from earlier runs tbh. GFS hangs the cold around a little longer too

[NickR]

Does anyone have any thoughts on the end of week blizzard? MO thread is so south-focused it's hard to get a sense of whether our accumulations up to that point would be anything similar to what the south/wales would get from that. They make it sound as though that will eclipse anything we get by some distance.

[garylaverick]

I think due to the sheer persistence of the snow in the NE during the week we'll have greater totals. I don't think we'll see the same level of intensity as they will from that low, but we'll be snowed in by the time the low arrives.

Also remember that the low will tighten the isobars and pep up convection from the NSSM even further, win win!

[J-Man]

Noticeably colder wind chill this evening.

[snowmackem]

Pretty sure we'll beat the Softies by next weekend?

If my sense check is right, and knowledge of how things relate to the models at ground level after watching them for years, I would say that some parts of the region will have accumulated a metre of snow by next Saturday ( normal suspects), lower areas around Tyneside up to 80cm, and places like Blyth, Sunderland and Teesside, 40cm+. Same for Whitby? etc, NYmoors 60-100 +, Lakes around 20-40.All depends of course on whether any streamers set up locally, what do all think? 

Also, hope you have all told your kids that when they are off school this week, it will be hard to make a snowman/snowballs - wrong type of snow, but the sledging will be great.

Snow shovel update - none left B and Q Scotswood yesterday, or local supermarkets etc. Went to Homebase Kingston Park last night, they had 15 in stock ( 7 quid extendable handle). When I left they only had 13 left. I bought 2 and the two sales staff at the till said " oh, we don't normally sell two together" I just said " I've got two kids" They laughed and I just added "Oh, and I know what's coming", winked, paid and walked out???

 

Edited February 24, 2018 by snowmackem

[Stozzy]

Yep it's feeling cold now nothing compared too what it's gonna be like .

[garylaverick]

Simply an incredible setup, certainly the best I've seen since I joined here 14 years ago as a 15 year old school kid!

Have you even seen precipitation charts with snow over us for such a prolonged period of time?!

First showers looking to hit around early hours of Monday.

Edited February 24, 2018 by garylaverick
Correction

[NickR]

22 minutes ago, snowmackem said:

Pretty sure we'll beat the Softies by next weekend?

If my sense check is right, and knowledge of how things relate to the models at ground level after watching them for years, I would say that some parts of the region will have accumulated a metre of snow by next Saturday ( normal suspects), lower areas around Tyneside up to 80cm, and places like Blyth, Sunderland and Teesside, 40cm+. Same for Whitby? etc, NYmoors 60-100 +, Lakes around 20-40.All depends of course on whether any streamers set up locally, what do all think? 

Also, hope you have all told your kids that when they are off school this week, it will be hard to make a snowman/snowballs - wrong type of snow, but the sledging will be great.

Snow shovel update - none left B and Q Scotswood yesterday, or local supermarkets etc. Went to Homebase Kingston Park last night, they had 15 in stock ( 7 quid extendable handle). When I left they only had 13 left. I bought 2 and the two sales staff at the till said " oh, we don't normally sell two together" I just said " I've got two kids" They laughed and I just added "Oh, and I know what's coming", winked, paid and walked out???

 

I've located mine in my shed and ordered a foldable AA one for the car that has just arrived - looks great! It's not very wide, but it means I don't have to carry a shovel around with me when I go into the Pennines.

Not bothering with rock salt as I'm in Gilesgate and, to be honest, when there's loads of snow I prefer it to build up!

[NickR]

To add: new thermal gloves and socks for the family arrived today too! Snowboots for the kids to arrive Monday.

[gordonm]

3 hours ago, J-Man said:

Amble, you must be Widdrington or maybe Acklington?

Ulgham, so about 4 mile as the crow flies!!

[Hagler]

I think people have been panic buying bread in Consett today! ?

[snowmackem]

Just now, NickR said:

To add: new thermal gloves and socks for the family arrived today too! Snowboots for the kids to arrive Monday.

Ha, so you agree with my accumulation guesses?

I imagine that come Mon eve, there could be a run on bread, milk etc in the local shops, best be prepared, could be chaos when it finally dawns on the Wuggles!❄❄

Haha, beaten to it, cheers Hagler

If

Edited February 24, 2018 by snowmackem

[Stozzy]

3 minutes ago, Hagler said:

I think people have been panic buying bread in Consett today! ?

I've panicked Aswell and stocked up on the gin n tonics 

[Hagler]

The milk aisle wasn’t in a much healthier state either! 

[doctor32]

Been away from here this afternoon, checked mod thread and thought it was all over lol.

Any how, on checking models atm... This low from the south the biggest headache now, not sure how this will pan out... However, the further north the better for keeping the cold air and snow in my opinion.

Will be back later with my thoughts on next week.

[Dahonis]

It's only going to snow down south ?.I can't wait, work will be a pain in the rear. Folks travelling when they don't really need to.....