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Paul

Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?

Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

Message added by Paul

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Well it was only a matter of time before the GFS produce a proper beast. The 00z ECM ensembles far less confirdent on deep than a few runs ago, with some never getting the high north enough meaning we drag in a SE/S flow instead, which could feel quite spring like and warm. Equally a decent number still go sub -14C in a monster easterly. 

Just a slight trend as well for a LP to try and push up from the south/SW as well.

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#Sleety ref lake effect snow off North Sea

 

2013

archives-2013-3-26-0-2.png

= Mega snow

 

 

 

2018 

gfs-1-234.png?6

= ???

 

March snow 016.JPG2013

March snow 018.JPG

Edited by winterof79

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for those in the west who say easterlies dont deliver for them-

prectypeuktopo-4.thumb.png.924c0788d6cf278461ce685b5376dd24.png

everyone is happy on that chart, even knocker!

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1 minute ago, bobbydog said:

for those in the west who say easterlies dont deliver for them-

prectypeuktopo-4.thumb.png.924c0788d6cf278461ce685b5376dd24.png

everyone is happy on that chart, even knocker!

unless you were one of the people living in aberystwyth or st ives :( rip

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2 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

for those in the west who say easterlies dont deliver for them-

prectypeuktopo-4.thumb.png.924c0788d6cf278461ce685b5376dd24.png

everyone is happy on that chart, even knocker!

Yes, this would be the perfect easterly. Nobody would miss out on the fun. 

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This 06z run is truely mad, as Chino said, any run is a downgrade from this! Monster easterly followed by a LP forming in the flow, basically ensuring snowfalls 1ft+ IF that ran came off as it shows...We actually develop our OWN shortwave in the cold polar flow, so rare to see that, yet alone basically in March!

Even a very downgraded version of that would be one of the best cold spells since Dec 10.l

gfs-1-264.png

Edited by kold weather
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UK looking very cold South East England looking Extreme cold weather..:cold:

4E6850B2-FF79-46B5-ABD7-50383F9ECDD4.png

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4 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

I think what you are seeing modelled is the perfect block. No other output will be as good as this! I'm reminded off the great late Ian McCaskill's famous forecast - Incredible run!

we said that about yesterday’s 12z ecm !

these stellar ops will appear, interspersed with less stellar ones and we will remain none the wiser re the detail of what lies ahead in week 2. 

@Steve Murr - you weren’t very vocal re the 00z suites. Are you stepping back awaiting the noon output ??

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Nice run. Based on recent runs from the main models, I would go with the real cold to arrive sometime next weekend but a downward trend in temperatures in an easterly flow from mid next week.

Edited by MattStoke
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worth saving these charts for posterity.

the GFS is showing a historical weather event

(or hysterical, depending how you look at it!)

gfsnh-0-276.thumb.png.b7dd588a4eed53ed91c5d1f5a3bf864b.png

prectypeuktopo-6.thumb.png.300768da20fea25f2fe926b01ae79159.png

prectypeuktopo-5.thumb.png.d5cbae2a272c5b70615568dc1079b60e.png

prectypeuktopo-7.thumb.png.188a085ba78b141519c6bc1a8f73784e.png

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Anyone who needs expectation management only has to look at the ECM. Not the best. UKMO, though better, is not that much better.

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1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

we said that about yesterday’s 12z ecm !

these stellar ops will appear, interspersed with less stellar ones and we will remain none the wiser re the detail of what lies ahead in week 2. 

@Steve Murr - you weren’t very vocal re the 00z suites. Are you stepping back awaiting the noon output ??

im stepping back into bed ( on a stag weekend ) - Im in bits lol

IKON 06z looked good all the way t120 as well

UKMO better today but ECM to far south :(

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 Nevermind uk for a minute, what about Eastern Europe  it would :cold::cold: be dangerously cold I would imagine if this run verify ,anyone checked out the 850 hpa for places like Finland and Russia yet,it’s insanely cold on the 00 run this run even colder 

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It finally seems like we are getting a form of stability now with something special being seen across models. 

I am still expecting the tail end of Feb to be the most likely time for the evolutions that the 6z and last nights ECM 12z to actually come off....

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This GFS 6z run just oozes epicicity!  Here's the T288 chart

gfs-0-288.png?6

And the uppers - wow!

gfs-1-288.png?6

First day of Spring, anyone?

Edited by Mike Poole
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