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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?


Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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Cold - Yes Instability - Yes Prolonged - Yes I just wet myself - Yes!

I quite often agree with your sort of sentiment, as I'm one who opts to look at the most likely solution to fit the signals rather than the preferred one But, equally impartially and with intended

Sorry, I just thought I’d walked into the moans threa.. oh wait. <passes around a big bag of grips> No sooner do we get a cold spell within sight it astonishes me that time and time again some p

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3 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

I will post one image this morning and I think it shows where we're heading no matter how many daily ups and downs.

Screenshot_20180217-081421.png

Not sure I’ve ever seen a chart like that before. It’s as is the ensembles have downed tools and refused to do their colouring in! 

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3 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

So gem and icon are the coldest runs  this morning in the earlier time frame,let’s s hope the other models show the same later on today.

I think it’s unlikely we will see the models all coming to agreement of the detail post +96 ish atm. I’m perfectly happy with them agreeing on the theme, we have plenty of time to get the detail sorted! This is going to require some more patience for a while yet I’m afraid! 

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14 minutes ago, pureasthedriven said:

Not sure I’ve ever seen a chart like that before. It’s as is the ensembles have downed tools and refused to do their colouring in! 

Crazy chart jet stream closure ahead ,which could only ocurr after a monumental SSW which is still creating havoc with the models and this thread:)  

Edited by winterof79
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There's an understandable desperation to get something really special out of all this, something that is talked about for years to come. These synoptics don't come along every year, once in a blue moon in fact. If we end up only in the fridge and not in the freezer, it will be an opportunity missed that may not come along again for years or even decades.

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Interested to see whether the mighty ICON can maintain its consitency this morning...06z rolling now. Hoping its 180hrs chart doesn’t change much (for the next 180hrs!). :rofl:

337AE06B-E463-4140-ABA3-A97A6F904B48.thumb.png.91f9feaeccf8d16732d1cc6bdfb627b7.png

Would be interested to see this model’s verification stats recently if anyone knows where to find them?

 

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Good to finally see agreement on an easterly developing later next week. The ECM is a bit slower than previous runs whereas the GFS has brought it forward a bit. The models gradually agreeing on the general theme and slowly converging on timing. No surprise. Unless you are one of those tiresome people who writes winter off after one run only to hype up snowmaggedon on the next, and vice versa 

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17 minutes ago, Purga said:

Good cross model concensus on the easterly next week.

Probably the coldest T2M forecast for a long, long time!

image.thumb.png.f06a8ecc2c7cb4b113c33f0b03f2e77f.png

I don`t see these charts very often but are we saying the sea temp is 2-4 degs higher than average?

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A little bit of balance please.  Just looking at the ECM Det and it's ensembles, things have downgraded as the below shows:

12z yesterday

Diagramme ECMWF/CEP

0z today

Diagramme ECMWF/CEP

 

However, on a positive note, the UKMO is now good at day 6.  So swings and roundabouts as ever. 

Edited by mulzy
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1 minute ago, mulzy said:

A little bit of balance please.  Just looking at the ECM Det and it's ensembles, things have downgraded as the below show:

12z yesterday

Diagramme ECMWF/CEP

0z today

Diagramme ECMWF/CEP

 

However, on a positive note, the UKMO is now good at day 6.  So swings and roundabouts as ever. 

So essentially, the eps are just as futile as the GEFS then?

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5 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

I don`t see these charts very often but are we saying the sea temp is 2-4 degs higher than average?

No Stuie, the top 2 charts are the actual forecast mean temps and the lower one is the anomaly which doesn't include the sea anomaly. :)

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16 minutes ago, supernova said:

Interested to see whether the mighty ICON can maintain its consitency this morning...06z rolling now. Hoping its 180hrs chart doesn’t change much (for the next 180hrs!). :rofl:

337AE06B-E463-4140-ABA3-A97A6F904B48.thumb.png.91f9feaeccf8d16732d1cc6bdfb627b7.png

Would be interested to see this model’s verification stats recently if anyone knows where to find them?

 

We will have to wait till the 12z to see the 180 chart. The 6z doesn't go that far.

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25 minutes ago, supernova said:

Interested to see whether the mighty ICON can maintain its consitency this morning...06z rolling now. Hoping its 180hrs chart doesn’t change much (for the next 180hrs!). :rofl:

337AE06B-E463-4140-ABA3-A97A6F904B48.thumb.png.91f9feaeccf8d16732d1cc6bdfb627b7.png

Would be interested to see this model’s verification stats recently if anyone knows where to find them?

 

It wil only go to T120 this run

the NWP giveth and the NWP taketh away!

a couple of positives this morning and a negative in the eps. Bit of a shame with the eps as I was thinking they might be doing a decent job re the downwelling compared to the other models but it simply seems they were in the short term but beyond that a good old middle ground solution becomes more favoured. 

What is pretty secure from the direction of the 00z runs is that a quick cold easterly later this week is v unlikely.  The preference in the 8/12 day period. 

Difficult to take too much from the eps mean as it seems a bit skewed to the op again. What we are seeing today is the upstream forcing from the nw prevents the ridge from gaining enough latitude with the flow remaining positive than more neutral/tending vertical to our nw. 

Some charts from the eps to show how different the 00z run isn’t from yesterday’s 12z

note how the upper ridge doesn’t separate on the latest run with the difference obvious by T156 and stark by T216

fri 12z                                                          Sat 00z

EB602D99-F701-4BFF-A69A-5994EA2E3731.thumb.jpeg.6db897411f1fed8713438de3d0e172f7.jpeg 8903AF70-AE19-42C1-9A31-B3B8B56C5DFD.thumb.jpeg.17a9245fb45b8158462c30ba0bb557e7.jpeg

 

 

B4284857-7B80-4249-96A3-F47761C40559.thumb.jpeg.0c16a545aca8ab587af5b50d986f935e.jpeg 8EF34A8E-2196-4104-B02C-7B5170764872.thumb.jpeg.8796eecea15403216c434b45aacb906c.jpeg

The spreads on the eps reveal more details - will post in a minute 

 

 

Edited by bluearmy
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18 minutes ago, mulzy said:

A little bit of balance please.  Just looking at the ECM Det and it's ensembles, things have downgraded as the below shows:

12z yesterday

Diagramme ECMWF/CEP

0z today

Diagramme ECMWF/CEP

 

However, on a positive note, the UKMO is now good at day 6.  So swings and roundabouts as ever. 

Or as I cautioned yesterday, the eps sometimes follow the op theme too closely 

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I dont understand why people are now stressing about the type of Easterly we are going to get this morning!

It wasn't even coming 36 hours ago!

The models will continue to chop and change over the coming days sometimes four times a day so let's just be thankful the overall pattern now looks to be agreed on and that given the background SSW that is still ongoing there is very little chance of an Atlantic onslaught any time soon.

Op runs and ensemble suites are prone to wild swings in this set up so any stressing over whether an Easterly is going to be mild or dry as opposed to cold and snowy is just futile as it will have changed by the next run anyway!

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The chart below is the one that cheered me up more than anything else I have seen this morning. My one concern last night was the UKMET output so I am delighted to see this chart just 5 days away. At first glance it doesn't look snow laden but what will follow is not your normal firing up of the northern jet fuelled by a rampant Canadian/Greenland vortex. This is on its last legs as a result of the further warming's taking place up top and we see clear indications from the modelling of a retrogression pattern to Greenland in week 2 and possibly beyond, with a mass of frigid air out to our east and north that will continue to be topped up by the pattern.  

I think we are on the verge of something very memorable. As TT says above. These are once in a blue moon opportunities. He is right in my view ... I will be very surprised if the vast majority of the country does not see significant snow over the next two weeks.

FWIW I think the debate in here this morning has been a good read. Many on here invest a significant amount of time, effort and emotion. Lets not be too critical if the emotion takes over a little too much some times. Its understandable at the moment.

Direction of travel then... After a mild start an increasingly cold but mainly dry week as Easterly winds slowly establish themselves. Light snow flurry's into the east and south east by the end of the week , gradually turning more persistent and heavy by the end of the weekend and moving west. Heavy persistent snow for many at the start of the following week... beyond then, remaining bitterly cold with sharp frosts and occasional snow until the end of week 2...

Enjoy your Saturday... COYW

 

metslp_120 - 0z 17.02.2018.png

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