Jump to content

Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?


Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

Recommended Posts

Not all plain sailing on the clusters - a 20% cluster sticking to this morning's GFS solution.

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018021612_192.

But of course that means 80% on the cold side.

Perhaps a little too soon to be exploring D11-D15, but it still looks like a NW height rise is the overwhelming favourite:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018021612_300.

The daffodils won't like that!!

  • Like 5
  • Haha 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 4.9k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

Cold - Yes Instability - Yes Prolonged - Yes I just wet myself - Yes!

I quite often agree with your sort of sentiment, as I'm one who opts to look at the most likely solution to fit the signals rather than the preferred one But, equally impartially and with intended

Sorry, I just thought I’d walked into the moans threa.. oh wait. <passes around a big bag of grips> No sooner do we get a cold spell within sight it astonishes me that time and time again some p

Posted Images

ECM too quick and GFS too slow?

Middle ground scenario on the arrival?

Cold spell begins this time next week give or take?

Watering down on the depth likely. But, it’s coming...

Edited by Southender
Link to post
Share on other sites

As I tried to point out yesterday: the developments are dominated by the largescale movements due to the SSW: as a consequence of the revearsal in the Stratosphere the tropospherical vortex-energie above Canada/Geenland is bound to move to the Pacific side. 

It is strange to see that most models see this in the longe range but fail to incorporate it in the short-range. It is still my opinion/question that this is because hi-res models are mislead by shortwave activity!

The positioning of the HP across Europe is an example of this: it will occur because of the large scale dynamics, the only question is: where will it land.

      

 

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Not all plain sailing on the clusters - a 20% cluster sticking to this morning's GFS solution.

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018021612_192.

But of course that means 80% on the cold side.

Perhaps a little too soon to be exploring D11-D15, but it still looks like a NW height rise is the overwhelming favourite:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018021612_300.

The daffodils won't like that!!

Niether will i if my zip is down:D

good trends tonight for a poss easterly then a retrogression into Greenland all aided by the second pulse of warming on slaughting the Canadian pv.

Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, OldBloke said:

For those that are interested, as I type this, the coldest area within the stratosphere anywhere around the globe is now, directly above the United Kingdom. At a pressure setting of 10 hPa, there is a minus 20 degrees anomaly. Above the UK at 10 hPa (101,000 ft) it is showing MINUS 69, the coldest area above the planet within the stratosphere.

Love it - it's the equivalent of a strat post card 

PSCs are pretty but they are in the toaster

image.thumb.png.932b9d58b73093af7b3b747a12c28f5d.png

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, OldBloke said:

For those that are interested, as I type this, the coldest area within the stratosphere anywhere around the globe is now, directly above the United Kingdom. At a pressure setting of 10 hPa, there is a minus 20 degrees anomaly. Above the UK at 10 hPa (101,000 ft) it is showing MINUS 69, the coldest area above the planet within the stratosphere.

if anyone is unsure of the definition of irony, - thats it.... right there....

  • Haha 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
32 minutes ago, OldBloke said:

For those that are interested, as I type this, the coldest area within the stratosphere anywhere around the globe is now, directly above the United Kingdom. At a pressure setting of 10 hPa, there is a minus 20 degrees anomaly. Above the UK at 10 hPa (101,000 ft) it is showing MINUS 69, the coldest area above the planet within the stratosphere.

What’s even more mental is the temp abouve northern Canada +2.5oC at the same height. SSW at its best.

44E28E0B-CEAB-4F11-A7EC-D02F98D8CAFA.png

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

From all the elation in here tonight, I thought we had finally gotten closer to the Beast. Looking at the 12 and 18z GFS OPs, they are both at the colder end of the ensembles, BUT from my eyes there looks to be about a 50/50 split and the control runs are at the mild end of the suite. The means are also above the long term average for the majority of the run. Please tell me I'm missing something. Tell me I'm wrong lol. I don't see any reason to be positive tonight barring the improvement in the ECM which luckily is not an outlier and is very close to the mean. Once again, I see a standoff. GFS is still either saying no, or "I don't have a clue" in my untrained eyes.

  • Sad 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...