Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

Operational has company towards the end, chocolate teapot at this range though

 

[Sky Full]

I am tempted to post only the very best eye-candy charts which I could hand pick from the many showing in the models 8 to 10 days away but I am going to keep my focus on the 23rd February which was the date, three or four days ago, when the models were predicting the start of this cold spell.  The models have swung to and fro over the last few days but this is what they are now showing for 23/02/18:

ECM       

GFS        

GEM       

JMA         

I have been looking for convergence between them all and there are more similarities today than before, but still no overall agreement.  At least they are all showing a definite easterly/south easterly flow so it's on the way....   GEM wins the prize for bringing the coldest air furthest west at the earliest date but in fairness the other models are all going in the same direction (of course, there are some eye watering charts in later days but these are less likely to be accurate at this range).

The UKMO is also going the right way at the end of the available run:

UKMO.  .  

If all these charts continue to show the same evolution then it is certainly 'when' and not 'if' we see some below average cold conditions with at least a few places recording record low daytime temperatures for this time of year.  I am definitely going back to ALDI to see if they have got any of those snow shovels left, but don't tell anyone else or they might sell out before I can there....

 

 

 

Edited February 16, 2018 by Sky Full
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[E17boy]

17 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

Wish I could get a post to stay on as long at this one! 

Oops that post was done this morning lol I forgot to mention 

the two lines at the bottom is what I just posted ???

[Snowjokes92]

Ecm rolling out soon. Watch it bloody flip lol. Interesting model watch this weekend. If easterly wins out, then this weekend we should see big changes and more eye candy hopefully. The small changes in the short range up to 72, will have an impact on next weeks weather! The models always struggle with heights until near reliable timeframe. So defo think we will see upgrades again. I havent seen this many easterlies modelled in a while, something surely os brewing?

Edited February 16, 2018 by Snowjokes92

[Mike Poole]

ECM looks Good at T72

[Lampostwatcher]

ECM t72 following on from this morning ?

[Met4Cast]

Decent Easterly at 96hrs on the ECM. 

I'd wager that "game on" can start to be brought out of the word bucket..

[snowice]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM looks Good at T72

96 is better 120should be a cracker! 

[Mike Poole]

T96

Could those Highs link to form mega Ely pretty early?

Edited February 16, 2018 by Mike Poole

[Ali1977]

This is gonna be fantastic fromtve ECM- Freezer by next Thurs, maybe even Wed.

edit - Make that by Tuesday for the SE -6c uppers in by lunchtime - poss flurries starting 

Edited February 16, 2018 by Ali1977

[Ali1977]

Wow -10c uppers by next Wed. That’s not far away

[tight isobar]

Beast incoming @96... things moving on a more rapid note now....

12z ecm likely to be an amazing run.

[Optimus Prime]

4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

T96

Could those Highs link to form Ely pretty early?

Issue is the lack of decent pressure gradient over the Mediterranean and the anticyclone not being able to migrate north as a result of the energy going over the top. In that situation I doubt an easterly, if it did occur, would last long. 

Edited February 16, 2018 by Optimus Prime

[snowice]

Ecm  at 120 is drifting NE is going to pull even colder uppers west

 

Edited February 16, 2018 by snowice

[Stuie]

It is almost a perfect path by the ECM just to pile cold air in, Easy game this and only 5 days away. Don`t know why I was worried...

[inghams85]

3 minutes ago, Optimus Prime said:

Issue is the lack of decent pressure gradient over the Mediterranean and the anticyclone not being able to migrate north as a result of the energy going over the top. In that situation I doubt an easterly, if it did occur, would last long. 

Energy can not go over the top when westerlies are decelerating from the SSW. You have to second guess the charts in this scenario and 120 is case in point. 

[Purga]

ECM looking well on track again

BTW - nice press release from METO today

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/2018/a-sudden-stratospheric-warming-and-potential-impacts-on-uk

 

[WalsallWeather123]

Freezer time ECM

[Ali1977]

Just now, snowice said:

144 is a boom

No denying it - this is now looking odds on for something really special 

[lassie23]

well the met office still see a lengthy cold spell from the east as a strong possibility thanks to the SSW,  despite the  recent constant flip flopping of the models.

[Mike Poole]

T144

Have I got this right, that low WSW of Spain should go under and prop this lot up?

[ICE COLD]

This is amazing make that -12s in get in there ecm ?

[tight isobar]

Wollop!!!!

Real polar continental flow...and we are in the freezer...

I said b4..i'll say again text book convention synops...

#impactual #snow...

[Met4Cast]

This right here is exactly what we want to see.

Low pressure underneath the high edging Northwards putting forcing on the blocking high keeping it in situ, meanwhile CAA from the East allow the uppers to get colder and colder. Snow showers into the SE/EA by day 6.

[Optimus Prime]

1 minute ago, inghams85 said:

Energy can not go over the top when westerlies are decelerating from the SSW. You have to second guess the charts in this scenario and 120 is case in point. 

Think you are slightly confused. Westerly's in the stratosphere you mean? The winds that influence our level at 2M are atmospheric pressure at 3 miles, the troposphere. The stratosphere is 6 miles up. It's whether or not those reversal in winds propagate down to what impacts us the most that is important. The jetstream is just a little higher up than the troposphere so that will feel the affects first but may stay just active enough at the current date of interest,.

We might have to wait until a little longer before we MAY feel it's full impact.