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Paul

Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?

Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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The 12z op runs seem to have been taken as a downgrade by some, but I think this to to fail to see the wood for the trees.  What the excitement about yesterday was all about the strong signal from the ensembles to progress to a Greenland high on 8-12 day timescale, consistent with expectations re the tropospheric response to the SSW.  I've said this before but at the moment the destination seems clearer than the route we get there so the individual op runs are maybe not the best guide until we get this cold spell into the reliable timeframe.

GEFS ensemble mean still looking very strong for Greenland high, 1045 countour on this one at T336

gens-21-1-336.png?12

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8 minutes ago, ALL ABOARD said:

Couple of tweets from Ian F regarding the bolstering of the cold signal as of the 12z runs. 

Screenshot_20180213-205915.thumb.png.a6d0617b9ebea2b6229595848458f805.png

Screenshot_20180213-205922.thumb.png.af3ec23c538a1a99c455610ff1b7b53b.png

Encouraging insight from IF. Shannon and her large entropy’s are very much evident and will be swinging around for a while yet.  Perhaps Shannon will be having an entropy reduction this weekend?

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Evening All ! I know I wont be popular on here for saying the hunt for a cold Easterly is a "Wild Goose Chase" and as I have Geese ,you want to see how fast they fly:rofl: But models have been toying for all winter long for Easterlies , and what have we had ? Plenty of cold and unusual cold from the west rather than the east. Easterly winds will come , probably March or April , Statistically the most common time of year , Im not bothered if people don't like what Im saying Just saying whats in the output and experience tells me  Easterly winds bringing bitter cold are very rare ....Like A Goose Tooth:rofl: PS  cant wait for Spring .its been a damn cold winter...:cold:

spring.png

springx.png

post-3489-0-25350700-1397755767.jpg

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40 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

In the nicest possible way, I think a few members need to get a life.......or a girlfriend or something.....open your stuffy dark bedrooms and let some fresh air in....lol.......Models are all over the place, this is what happens when you get a potential pattern change, i.e model volatility!......all one has to do is to go back 10 days or so and the potential for much colder weather is much better now than it was then......take the model runs for the past few days...yes, there has been volatility, but the general theme is for colder weather with an easterly component and I'll quite happily bet a few quid that that's what the UK will end up with eventually......So let's have a bit of sanity prevailing and no more "waaaa..waaaa, it's not showing -50C easterlies!....it's not fair!.....my life is over" nonsense!....cheers all :drinks:

Been looking for a man for while now AJ and no luck as of yet! Volatile is how I’d sum up relationships let alone weather models!

This SSW was always going to cause the models to go topsy turvey inside out! If people took the runs seriously are they are now, god knows how they’d cope watching Eastenders! 

The 8-10 day period is by no means settled yet! Plenty more twists in the tale to come over the next few days I feel!

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3 minutes ago, Snowmadsam said:

Been looking for a man for while now AJ and no luck as of yet! Volatile is how I’d sum up relationships let alone weather models!

This SSW was always going to cause the models to go topsy turvey inside out! If people took the runs seriously are they are now, god knows how they’d cope watching Eastenders! 

The 8-10 day period is by no means settled yet! Plenty more twists in the tale to come over the next few days I feel!

The models are more volatile that Max Branning. And considering his track record we'd be better off doing a Dot Cotton and having a cup of rosy lea.

Added SSW means Jack s**T in respect of whether we will get snow. May as well have the models go up to T500 as it'd be just as clear.

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The models are just a bunch of man made algorithms,

Sort of like a calculator, but instead of being asked  questions based upon fact, like what is the result of 1+1 

it has to predict the outcome of events in the future, where the input of data has not been resolved yet.

Trend is the friend here, not taking every run as gospel, because the fact is the model is just outputting a semi-educated guess till we get to a closer range and until then it will flip-flop from run-to-run.

 

 

 

Edited by Bazray

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5 minutes ago, Bazray said:

The models are just a bunch of man made algorithms,

Sort of like a calculator, but instead of being asked predictable questions like what is the result of 1+1 

it has to predict the outcome of events in the future, where the input of data has not been resolved yet.

Trend is the friend here, not taking every run as gospel, because the fact is the model is just outputting a semi-educated guess till we get to a closer range and until then it will flip-flop from run-to-run.

 

 

 

How you interp/read them...

And all supporting data-is the key factor.

(Models)....

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A few days ago the GFS was suggesting an easterly beginning on and around the 19th Feb, but the 12z has it now pushed out to the 23rd, a week later. I thought it be interesting to see what the trend of both ensembles was...

gfs-ens_z500a_eu_fh144_trend.gif

ecmwf-ens_z500a_eu_fh144_trend (1).gif

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Okay so on to the 18z and the first one out of the blocks. 

Much better run compared to its 12z op run. 

Screenshot_20180213-213523.thumb.png.8b6827acfebad59b0b9dcd4a76cc747a.png

Screenshot_20180213-213515.thumb.png.9e1f5b97a53b80ed6005d7bf8f223aa0.png

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4 minutes ago, ALL ABOARD said:

Okay so on to the 18z and the first one out of the blocks. 

Much better run compared to its 12z op run. 

Screenshot_20180213-213523.thumb.png.8b6827acfebad59b0b9dcd4a76cc747a.png

Screenshot_20180213-213515.thumb.png.9e1f5b97a53b80ed6005d7bf8f223aa0.png

Yes I was just looking at the ICON, this must be a good omen for the GFS 18z, could be a great run coming up this evening.:D

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1 hour ago, ajpoolshark said:

In the nicest possible way, I think a few members need to get a life.......or a girlfriend or something.....open your stuffy dark bedrooms and let some fresh air in....lol.......Models are all over the place, this is what happens when you get a potential pattern change, i.e model volatility!......all one has to do is to go back 10 days or so and the potential for much colder weather is much better now than it was then......take the model runs for the past few days...yes, there has been volatility, but the general theme is for colder weather with an easterly component and I'll quite happily bet a few quid that that's what the UK will end up with eventually......So let's have a bit of sanity prevailing and no more "waaaa..waaaa, it's not showing -50C easterlies!....it's not fair!.....my life is over" nonsense!....cheers all :drinks:

In Itallics......I just absolutely love the OTT humour...superb and made me laugh

 

ECM hasn’t thrown anything away, maybe we maybe getting a touch of resolution re when the main thrust will come.  I definitely think there will be a NE’ly surge......when not if in my books...and how ‘deep’....hopefully -50c+ ENE’lies

 

BFTP

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Is it safe to look in yet? Do I need to hit the scotch on a school night, or are we going to be able to all behave like civil measure humans?

Please keep commentary civil- and the voodoo/gut feeling/bumsqueezing sorcery one liner stuff in banter....

🙄

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21 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The fixation on this thread with operationals beyond their reliable timeframe never ceases to amaze me.  Ecm clearly went awol with its jet distribution early in the run. Now it’s possible it could be onto something but the eps disagree so we bear it in mind for the 18z and 00z to follow but no need to make a song and dance over it. It’s currently a low probability outcome and interestingly, the run still manages some vertical WAA at day 6. Btw, the differences in the strat on this op run compared to its previous output also makes it questionable. 

Solid extended eps wrt to a v cold period.  The NAO shows a massive spread by the end of week 2 but the mean is very low. at the moment, i would be looking a the blocking edging away nw later week 2 and allowing the low heights to edge further n in general. That brings the Atlantic slowly ne towards the uk too along wit( the euro trough. 

But the whole reason we view the ops in high anticipation is the fact that they are run at a much higher resolution. If an op run vears off on a different tangent within the first 4 to 5 days I thought we had always been told to sit up and listen. The opposite advice seems to be dominant tonight. It's 'bin the ecm op' as it is not in line with the rest of the suite. 

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Just now, blizzard81 said:

But the whole reason we view the ops in high anticipation is the fact that they are run at a much higher resolution. If an op run vears off on a different tangent within the first 4 to 5 days I thought we had always been told to sit up and listen. The opposite advice seems to be dominant tonight. It's 'bin the ecm op' as it is not in line with the rest of the suite. 

I did post that we should be looking at this change as it’s early in the run. however, it depends just how big the veering off is. Let’s sleep on it! 

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I’ve just had to remove about ten posts.

 

this isn’t the ‘who got rid of Fergie thread’ and nobody gets any points for that kind of commentary, so can we just drop it and continue with the models.

if your post is still hidden, it’s probably not on topic. There are an enormous number of posts that are under review, please be patient.

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Anyway, back to the models - as Ian Fergusson rightly pointed out in his tweets, the key here is how the ensembles are trending, particularly as we aren’t expecting any cold weather in the next 5 to 7 days. We’re dealing with a major change in the stratosphere which will have many knock on effects on our weather in the troposphere and swings in the operationals are to be expected. There is plenty to be positive about, operationals will change run to run and day to day until we get closer to the period when we expect the full tropospheric response to the SSW. 

Edited by chionomaniac
Removed off topic post

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3 minutes ago, Mucka said:

ICON looking much better at 120

iconnh-0-120.png?13-18

I see this model has been put into the limelight this winter. How highly is this model regarded exactly?

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