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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?


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Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

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Cold - Yes Instability - Yes Prolonged - Yes I just wet myself - Yes!

I quite often agree with your sort of sentiment, as I'm one who opts to look at the most likely solution to fit the signals rather than the preferred one But, equally impartially and with intended

Sorry, I just thought I’d walked into the moans threa.. oh wait. <passes around a big bag of grips> No sooner do we get a cold spell within sight it astonishes me that time and time again some p

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Mean while, away from Icon Land, the 0z UKMO at T120 decides to ruffle some feathers to say the least;

5a86581f56c48_UN120-21(1).thumb.gif.f6d7e5035bece95906e75eb50b65c591.gif 

And T144;

UN144-21.thumb.gif.fafbcc8019df09a1c1437e44b639d8e0.gif

Ah well, at least it is Friday.  

Edited by AWD
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2 minutes ago, AWD said:

Mean while, away from Icon Land, the 0z UKMO at T120 decides to ruffle some feathers to say the least;

5a86581f56c48_UN120-21(1).thumb.gif.f6d7e5035bece95906e75eb50b65c591.gif 

And T144;

UN144-21.thumb.gif.fafbcc8019df09a1c1437e44b639d8e0.gif

Ah well, at least it is Friday.  

Yeah I mean I don't think we our gonna get a strong agreement on this for anouther couple of days. 

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Yes ICON is somewhere nearer to last nights ECM than its stunning 12z run.

UKMO is completely at odds with the MetO forecast for becoming colder toward end of next week with SE winds, very odd indeed

UN144-21.GIF?16-05

Totally did not expect to see a chart like that from UKMO at 144 this morning!

Then again the models have tortured us like the Spanish Inquisition and we all know, nobody expects the Spanish inquisition! 

Edited by Mucka
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All these downgrades can only mean one thing - a stonking ECM!

I'm beginning to wish I had stayed sat on the fence already - splinters in the ass beat a kick in the balls.

Edited by Mucka
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9 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Yes ICON is somewhere nearer to last nights ECM than its stunning 12z run.

UKMO is completely at odds witht eh met forecast for becoming colder toward end of next week with SE winds, very odd indeed

UN144-21.GIF?16-05

 

Synoptics like these as shown by GFS should start to feel pleasant in sunshine during the day, which will be a plus point for a lot of people...

gfsnh-0-132.png

I don't find it particularly strange that the UKMO model is at odds with the Metoffice forecasts...there have been numerous times where the Metoffice have gone with a scenario on balance, only to amend their forecast closer to the time. They use ensemble forecasting so it's not a surprise.

I suspect we'll start to see the SSW effects start to show their hand as we move through March- I just hope we can get a Greenland HP so that we can still filter in the coldest upper air available.

Edited by CreweCold
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Just now, Mucka said:

All these downgrades can only mean one thing - a stonking ECM!

I'm beginning to wish I had stayed sat on the fence already - splinters in the weeble beat a kick in the balls.

Still time for the gfs to improve later on in the run.

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2 minutes ago, Daniel said:

Still time for the gfs to improve later on in the run.

Well it will be a cold NW before a cold SE if it does.

It is actually not that far off from the UKMO

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Won’t be a happy forum this morning - awful GFS and UKMO with no sign of any HLB or SSW.

Exeter still saying very cold late next week is good, and you still have to plumb with them - maybe the GEFS will differ to the Op - again!!!

Edited by Ali1977
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5 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Won’t be a happy forum this morning - awful GFS and UKMO with no sign of any HLB or SSW.

Exeter still saying very cold late next week is good, and you still have to plumb with them - maybe the GEFS will differ to the Op - again!!!

Yeah the esembles will probably be showing completely different situation than the op again .

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4129A955-17FF-44D1-A262-33DF837710F6.thumb.png.d2e372484641a5e711a264d8f57baafd.png02E49D44-A3D0-4A05-BC27-D86B9CF1F9D1.thumb.png.6873336ea250a8318f21a586e3a0816c.png

A77F3E3F-098E-4D10-AFAA-9BF03963D425.thumb.png.d7af535eee1ab30ea2a55468d2a573d8.pngD01A706B-658E-4CCD-8F9D-5CFA4995752B.thumb.png.b8c25773915705d9c2673fb0f939e527.png

Not the most inspiring start to the day chart wise this morning. I’m staying on the fence until at least tomorrow’s 12Zs though. 

Just watched this morning’s Weather For The Week Ahead and are now conceding there is an option is for wet and windy Atlantic dominated into next weekend. But FAR from sure, could still be from the East. Did also say that ref. an Easterly. It wasn’t a case of IF, it was WHEN.

 

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14 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

 

Just watched this morning’s Weather For The Week Ahead and are now conceding there is an option is for wet and windy Atlantic dominated into next weekend. But FAR from sure, could still be from the East. Did also say that ref. an Easterly. It wasn’t a case of IF, it was WHEN.

 

Unfortunately we all know that if the "when" can't be pinned down then there is certainly an "if"

That said, I dare say it is a matter of when if we don't put time limits upon it - Feb "2022 perhaps?

Hmmm something about this day 10 GFS chart that looks familiar, just can't quite put my finger on it...

Atlantic ridge take 4 - action!

gfsnh-0-234.png

gfsnh-0-264.png

Cut!

and...

Atlantic ridge take 5, action!

gfsnh-0-300.png

I imagine GFS would feel very pleasant in the sunshine, always a silver lining

gfs-9-300.png

 

Edited by Mucka
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