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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?


Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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So we've had the moaning session, now it's the ramping/excitement one! Same applies though, if it's not actually discussing the models, please head to the banter thread (eg for ramps, emotional responses etc etc)

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/?do=getNewComment

 

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Cold - Yes Instability - Yes Prolonged - Yes I just wet myself - Yes!

I quite often agree with your sort of sentiment, as I'm one who opts to look at the most likely solution to fit the signals rather than the preferred one But, equally impartially and with intended

Sorry, I just thought I’d walked into the moans threa.. oh wait. <passes around a big bag of grips> No sooner do we get a cold spell within sight it astonishes me that time and time again some p

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What the heck is going on? What the heck is going on?

It seems fairly apparent that the models are struggling to handle the SSW with the schizophrenic output of the past few model runs, the 18z runs are going to be crucial here in seeing which way this is swinging, although the cold looks to be delayed it doesn't look like it's completely done for. With the ECM showing deep cold as early as next Wednesday things aren't too bad surely?

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2 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

What the heck is going on? What the heck is going on?

It seems fairly apparent that the models are struggling to handle the SSW with the schizophrenic output of the past few model runs, the 18z runs are going to be crucial here in seeing which way this is swinging, although the cold looks to be delayed it doesn't look like it's completely done for. With the ECM showing deep cold as early as next Wednesday things aren't too bad surely?

The GFS pub run is not going to crucial let’s be real here I’d say by Saturday at the earliest we’ll have model agreement. The ECM clusters will be very revealing tonight. It’s never looked completely done for to me.

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3 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Frigid uppers moving westwards from western Russia on ecm 192hrs. 

The ECM could get even better. Just when the Fat Lady was about to sing out winter. Or as the saying goes Knocker was coming back to the thread....:)

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Chaos. Absolute chaos. 

On the left we had the ICON/GEM/NAVGEM. On the right we had the UKMO/GFS/ECM. The cannon fodders all going for Easterlies whilst the main three just weren't interested.

GEM/NAVGEM decided to jump ship and join the UKMO/GFS/ECM only for the ECM to go "Not hanging out with you guys" and jump to the ICON. 

I agree with TEITS. If the ops are being this variable between runs then you can completely forget about the ensembles because they're not going to have a clue, which unfortunately means throwing the mean charts out the window too. The EPS in fairness has been fairly solid for Northern Blocking and heights to our South in recent days despite the ops. So the ECM is probably just churning out one of the colder options within the suite, it'll be interesting to see where it sits within the clusters later this evening. 

One thing to note is despite the stunning EC synoptics, theres very little in the way of cold air throughout the entire run, so it's not 'quite' as good as a cursory glance would suggest.

Where does that leave us? Well.. it leaves us as we were last night, utterly clueless. 

Edited by Daniel Smith
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5 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Those uppers moving into eastern Scandi by day 9 as the scandi high morphs into the arctic high :)

And into Poland by day 10. What an epic day 10 chart that is when you see what is waiting in the wings to the east - The genuine 'BEAST FROM THE EAST' 

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Inclined to regard the ECM as work in progress at the end of the run.  850 temps not that cold yet.

ECM0-240.GIF?15-0

But look where the airs coming from!

ECM1-240.GIF?15-0

This saga has a while to run yet.

Edited by Mike Poole
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What a great ending to the Ecm 12z..I would now like to see days 11/12 dammit!!:D:cold-emoji:.. .fantastic upgrade compared to the 00z! ???❄❄❄❄❄❄❄huge sigh of relief..until the next run!:shok::D

240_mslp850.png

Edited by Frosty.
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10 hours ago, Day 10 said:

Only viewed what's been posted but from what I can gather it's Exeter's general cold lookout, UKMO, ICON, GEM, NAVGEM, GEFS and a few others? vs GFS OP & ECM

Quite happy then as it stands. When an Easterly is predicted I am far happier with the UKMO ECM on board over the others, when this isn't the case i'd be more concerned.

Plenty to be positive about this morning.

Stuff it, if the models can flip and flop then so can I. Quote from this morning amended accordingly!

Edited by Day 10
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If you’re trying to console yourself you could think the ECM was the first to go downhill so perhaps it’s picked up a new signal .

Alternatively it’s torturing us and leading us on another wild goose chase !

Its very hard to have much faith in its output given all the chopping and changing.

The early timeframe is crucial because all the models agree on the PV gathering once again to the nw.

You have to have a block in place before that happens.

Anyway we should hopefully know in the morning unless that is the models are now going to start disagreeing within T72 hrs!

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2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

What a great ending to the Ecm 12z..I would now like to see days 11/12 dammit!!:D:cold-emoji:.. .fantastic upgrade compared to the 00z! ???❄❄❄❄❄❄❄

240_mslp850.png

Indeed. Let's hope we see those ecm ext ens fall of a cliff tonight ☺️ 

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So just back from work and am catching up.

UKMO - Brilliant 0z, Awful 12z

GFS - Awful 0z, Awful 12z

ECM - Awful 0z, Very good 12z

ICON - Brilliant 0z,  Brilliant 12z

Ladies and gentlemen, we have a new king in town.  All hail the ICON

240 ECM and we have a massive easterly incoming... 

ECM0-240.GIF?15-0

This is without doubt the most ludicrous hobby ever *rolls eyes and closes laptop until 9.30pm*

 

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11 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Just for once in a lifetime be correct....

D5FC1354-6E38-4676-AF0E-DD18B7058799.thumb.png.c120455e421d39c79a0b559fbd2b3c99.png

@That ECM

Steve, you are obviously a knowledgeable chap. Firstly yes I`m with you, secondly, 10 day charts, everything looks great 10 days out. It is as if there is a preset. 

In your experience over the years, what is the verification ratio with these charts? 2,3,4%? Higher?

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8 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

What a great ending to the Ecm 12z..I would now like to see days 11/12 dammit!!:D:cold-emoji:.. .fantastic upgrade compared to the 00z! ???❄❄❄❄❄❄❄

240_mslp850.png

If ever the phrase "More Runs Needed" applies its now Carl. Imagine if the 18z shifted back towards the ECM/ICON solution later on this evening, it will go completely into melt down in here. The UKMO Fax charts for T96 and T120 will be the ones to watch too.

I wonder where exactly this ECM run sits in its ensembles, cold outlier, hope not?

Edited by snowray
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What a difference an hour makes lol. The ecm ens could be very revealing tonight. On the other hand? Maybe not.  The good news is the torture cannot have much longer to go as we will be talking within the 3 day timeframe tomorrow. 

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