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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?


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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

    h500slp.png

    Funnily enough, this looks a lot like the 12z UKMO from yesterday.

    Today's UKMO 12z still has more of a low into Europe than GFS so perhaps it will also resemble it's previous 12z effort but with a bit more of an easterly flow than GFS.

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    Cold - Yes Instability - Yes Prolonged - Yes I just wet myself - Yes!

    I quite often agree with your sort of sentiment, as I'm one who opts to look at the most likely solution to fit the signals rather than the preferred one But, equally impartially and with intended

    Sorry, I just thought I’d walked into the moans threa.. oh wait. <passes around a big bag of grips> No sooner do we get a cold spell within sight it astonishes me that time and time again some p

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    Posted
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
    Just now, Steve Murr said:

    try again

    ??

     

    ??.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level

    Like I said, the GFS doesn't want to know

    5a85b35016ced_GFSgross.thumb.png.e81816053ee38dd26a4d965f4959e174.png

    Unless of course it's a flat MLB you're after? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level

    Oh boy. 

    ICON vs GEM, UKMO & GFS. ECM will probably go down the ICON route just to further confuse and complicate things. 

    We're still no closer to really solving this but the longer time ticks on, I'd say the less likely we're going to see that trigger shortwave moving South, seems to be growing more distant with each set of runs. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20

    UKMO is poor compared to its 0z run BUT it's still better than the GFS.

    However, a very disappointing start to the evening runs in my opinion

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    Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
    Just now, radiohead said:

    Quite a change from the 12Z UKMO at 120...

     

    UW120-21.GIF?15-17 

    Yes everything is still unresolved, But with the movement of the ICON towards the rest I would probably put money on the 18z ICON dropping the easterly at least the quick one anyway.

    The Icon moved towards the others on day 3 (72hrs) with less heights being pushed north, if that trend continues you end up with a flatter pattern again for the short term at least,

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    Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
    1 minute ago, Daniel Smith said:

    Oh boy. 

    ICON vs GEM, UKMO & GFS. ECM will probably go down the ICON route just to further confuse and complicate things. 

    We're still no closer to really solving this but the longer time ticks on, I'd say the less likely we're going to see that trigger shortwave moving South, seems to be growing more distant with each set of runs. 

    But we are, the ICON moved and is near the tipping point, the mid term is still up for grabs.

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    Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

    GFS 12z is an absolute stinker, disgusting chart given what was progged a few days ago, very disappointing. Bloody Greenland vortex, sure we have low pressure over Southern Europe but we are just stuck with this pattern 

    IMG_0191.PNG

    Edited by Weathizard
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    Posted
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
    3 minutes ago, radiohead said:

    Quite a change from the 12Z UKMO at 120...

     

    UW120-21.GIF?15-17 

    Yes, looks like no easterly on this run. Similar to GFS at 120t with more energy over the top. That's sad. Maybe in a later time span than shown from 00h earlir run.

     C

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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl

    I had written a long winded analysis but have just deleted the lot. ICON will have to back track I'm afraid, giant slaying is off today's menu. GFS and UKMO are horrible:angry:

     

    T144: ICON, GEM, UKMO and GFS.

    icon-0-144.png

    gem-0-144.png

    UW144-21.gif

    gfs-0-144.png

    Edited by snowray
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    Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.

    ECM is huge tonight. It's not like the middle ground is any use to us.

    Edited by Paul
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    Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
    Just now, Weathizard said:

    GFS 12z is an absolute stinker, disgusting chart given what was progged a few days ago, very disappointing. Bloody Greenland vortex

    IMG_0191.PNG

    The GFS is struggling to send the Jet north hench its much flatter.
    gfs-5-162.png?12icon-5-144.png

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
    23 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    So then for the haters, The IKON is going to own the GFS here around the s/wave

    So you are backing the IKON over all the rest ?!? 

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    Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire

    Worst. SSW. Ever.

    Looks like a bog standard chart, nothing remotely seems to have been impacted ....yet?

     

    A8198388-5CF6-43DB-848F-49783D572729.jpeg

    No way to cold from there.

    Edited by Johnp
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    Posted
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire

    image.thumb.png.bc2271dcfba59545bebcc848d0c2d47d.png

    The problem is that you are going to really struggle to get a cold cold spell if you have a strong PV and a weak/no block over Scandi.

    Looks like the cold air pouring out of Canada is going to cost us again, as it has done so many times in recent winters. I'd rather look forward to some dry, milder days under high pressure anyway now :)

    I was also surprised so many people thought this would be a QTR, looking at the GFS T216 you wouldn't think there had been a response at all...

    Edited by Quicksilver1989
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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT

    So despite the early excitement from the IKON & GFs moving the shortwave early doors its been all down hill from there

    similar to 2012 the models have picked up a shortwave at 144 that will impede the retrograde North of the High- GFS / UKMO / GEM all now positive in the tilted atlantic-

    ECM had this last 2 runs-

    Pretty Pony TBH.

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl

    So what's actually failed?

    One op run from UKMO showing a mid week easterly along with lesser models.

    I wasn't expecting any change until later in the week.If some don't control their jerking legs they are in danger of knocking themselves out:D

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    Posted
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level

    Still, it'll be a nice early start to spring at least

    FF.thumb.png.c59fa74f02689177ec1241852fa4ef6e.png

    Get the charcoal in and get an early March BBQ going to kick off the new season! If the ICON manages to pull this one out of the bag and call it right then it'll be forever imprinted into history and I'll personally print off the GFS/ECM/UKMO frames and eat them. 

    Big step back away from cold, wonder what the ensembles will show..

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    Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
    2 minutes ago, Johnp said:

    Worst. SSW. Ever.

    Looks like a bog standard chart, nothing remotely seems to have been impacted ....yet?

     

    A8198388-5CF6-43DB-848F-49783D572729.jpeg

    :rofl:

     

    To be fair it's not been two weeks yet has it, and by all accounts the impact should be felt later on in most cases (except when there is a QTR) 

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    For the first time I note a disturbance in the force..JMA out so far going as it’s predecessor. Decent.

    E57351A8-2F44-417C-AC3A-EB9024A45022.thumb.gif.25e281ac2380dc1ff14f4be45706dda3.gif

    Edited by Daniel*
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    Message added by Paul

    Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

    For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

    For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

    Thank you!

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