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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?


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Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London
    6 minutes ago, nytram43 said:

    Going to need at least -10 uppers down south to make a [big] difference this late in the season!

    I'm not entirely convinced. The snowfall of Easter 2008 came off uppers between -5 and -10:

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?jaar=2008&maand=3&dag=23&uur=000&var=2&map=1&model=avn

    This set up on 11th March 2013 brought a near ice day to London

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?jaar=2013&maand=3&dag=11&uur=000&var=2&map=1&model=avn

    That has most of the country under -10 uppers so it's not just the uppers, there are other factors to be considered such as Dew Points.

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    Cold - Yes Instability - Yes Prolonged - Yes I just wet myself - Yes!

    I quite often agree with your sort of sentiment, as I'm one who opts to look at the most likely solution to fit the signals rather than the preferred one But, equally impartially and with intended

    Sorry, I just thought I’d walked into the moans threa.. oh wait. <passes around a big bag of grips> No sooner do we get a cold spell within sight it astonishes me that time and time again some p

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    Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
    6 minutes ago, stodge said:

    I'm not entirely convinced. The snowfall of Easter 2008 came off uppers between -5 and -10:

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?jaar=2008&maand=3&dag=23&uur=000&var=2&map=1&model=avn

    This set up on 11th March 2013 brought a near ice day to London

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?jaar=2013&maand=3&dag=11&uur=000&var=2&map=1&model=avn

    That has most of the country under -10 uppers so it's not just the uppers, there are other factors to be considered such as Dew Points.

    Yep, the whole at least -10 uppers is utter nonsense. If we are in a PC flow the dew points will be low, we will not require -10.

    -5ish did it for snow showers, at the start of April 2013, in the middle of Portland harbour!

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    Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

    This is one of those occasions where I wish Ian Ferguson still posted on here, his insights into the MOGREPS and data unavailable to most of us were invaluable, you can only assume it must be more UKM like than GFS like.

    The GEFS from the 6z are quite revealing, the key period between the 21'st to 23rd is still where the ensembles appear to lose the plot and anything after that cannot be taken seriously due to the domino effect, I personally think the UKM output this morning is too progressive towards the easterly BUT history does show us the quite often this is the way they can pop up.

    Edited by Weathizard
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    Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk
    15 hours ago, Daniel Smith said:

    The key stage is 90-120 over Scandi with how the shortwave behaves. The ICON takes it S/SW which is the track we want, it curves underneath the high and setups an Easterly flow. The GFS/EC take it Eastwards, not allowing the undercut of cold air which then subsequently pushes the block Northwards and supports it.

    Icon

    ICON.thumb.png.30b66c9ce112710055e6ebe8ee8fdd05.png

    18z GFS

    GFS.thumb.png.1913d9a9b11a3ada0ae8fa7d35ee46ba.png

    If we want cold early doors as per GEM/ICON/NAVGEM you want that shortwave moving S/SW. If it goes E as per GFS/EC the cold is pushed back.

    I'll try not to lose any sleep. 

    You forgot the ukmo starts the trend at 96hr by 120hrs -8 approaching east coast by 144 were in deep continental easterly flow.

    Gem got some beautiful charts and has not given bad run for fair few days.

    ECM and GFS are not good at all.

    Which considering they are the two top models it's rather disappointing.

    But will the top 2 be wrong.

    UW144-7.thumb.gif.17b40302e4a3130dd8210560269a5528.gif

    But ukmo is a blinding run.

    And fingers crossed this type of set up or the gem idea would be equally brilliant.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Wellington, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms/Snow/Hail & Strong Winds
  • Location: Wellington, Somerset
    3 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

    You forgot the ukmo starts the trend at 96hr by 120hrs -8 approaching east coast by 144 were in deep continental easterly flow.

    Gem got some beautiful charts and has not given bad run for fair few days.

    ECM and GFS are not good at all.

    Which considering they are the two top models it's rather disappointing.

    But will the top 2 be wrong.

    UW144-7.thumb.gif.17b40302e4a3130dd8210560269a5528.gif

    But ukmo is a blinding run.

    And fingers crossed this type of set up or the gem idea would be equally brilliant.

     

    GFS is not a top 2 model (May be after its big upgrade). GEM has actually been slightly out performing it recently. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    3 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

    You forgot the ukmo starts the trend at 96hr by 120hrs -8 approaching east coast by 144 were in deep continental easterly flow.

    Gem got some beautiful charts and has not given bad run for fair few days.

    ECM and GFS are not good at all.

    Which considering they are the two top models it's rather disappointing.

    But will the top 2 be wrong.

    UW144-7.thumb.gif.17b40302e4a3130dd8210560269a5528.gif

    But ukmo is a blinding run.

    And fingers crossed this type of set up or the gem idea would be equally brilliant.

     

    Indeed UKMO is set from day 4, I find very rarely at this point it’s completely off. GEM also has been preforming better than GFS tweeted by Ryan M anticipation builds. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Wellington, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms/Snow/Hail & Strong Winds
  • Location: Wellington, Somerset
    2 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

    Indeed UKMO is set from day 4, I find very rarely at this point it’s completely off. GEM also has been preforming better than GFS tweeted by Ryan M anticipation builds. 

    If you check the automated Met Office forecasts for individual locations it has winds veering to an Easterly by next Wednesday (Use MOGREPS Data?). 

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    Posted
  • Location: Wellington, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms/Snow/Hail & Strong Winds
  • Location: Wellington, Somerset
    4 minutes ago, Light Without Heat said:

    Anyone how well the ICON verifies ?

    I don't think verification stats are widely available for it unfortunately, presumably if it was verifying well they would be releasing the verification stats to the public (at least making it easier to find!).   

    Edited by MattTarrant
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    Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk
    2 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

    Indeed UKMO is set from day 4, I find very rarely at this point it’s completely off. GEM also has been preforming better than GFS tweeted by Ryan M anticipation builds. 

    Well that's excellent news on the gem.

    I have seen the ukmo drop easterly flows in the past.

    But as Steve murr suggests this is a complex situation but with declining enso and reversal and the stratosphere event all points to a good call.

    And I back blend of ukmo and gem purely based on the continued consistent runs.

    Hopefully I'm right this time because the egg on my face this winter,

    is enough for a massive omelette.

    As for -10 from the east rubbish were half way through February not june so minus ten is not needed.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.

    Question is can the UKMO be wrong at day 4/5? Yes, of course it can. But me personally I would rather a UK model on board with cold than not, over an American/French/Ugandan/*insert any random country you wish model. If we see a UKMO climb down this evening, then we can perhaps start to question whether it has day 4/5 nailed over the rest. My personal feeling is the cold is coming in the next 7-10 days, it’s just how long will it last and how cold will it be are the questions. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirklees, West Yorks
  • Weather Preferences: Winter
  • Location: Kirklees, West Yorks

    The ecm has been utter garbage. It use to be fairly good as well. Its not been really that bothered about an easterly at all since the ssw was modelled. And also the fact ecm is moving towards ukmo in the reliable time frame, it gos pear shaped after reliable timeframe anyway! So frustrating. The ecm defo moving towards colder solution, but only in reliable time. It just shows how poor its been

    Edited by Snowjokes92
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    Posted
  • Location: Kirklees, West Yorks
  • Weather Preferences: Winter
  • Location: Kirklees, West Yorks

    Im stunned we are still no closer to knowing what exactly will happen next week. Still open to debate after sunday and its now thursday

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    Posted
  • Location: Dunstable 446ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: cold with frost & snow in winter; hot and dry in summer
  • Location: Dunstable 446ft ASL

    Having seen the UKMET 12z from yesterday (including extended) and Oz today together with the Met Office published outlooks I fully expect us to be in an easterly flow by this time next week. Perhaps I am being overly bullish about this but don't be surprised to see GFS and ECM move towards this outcome by 12z tomorrow !

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    Posted
  • Location: Preston, 19m ASL when tide out :(
  • Location: Preston, 19m ASL when tide out :(
    42 minutes ago, MattTarrant said:

    GFS is not a top 2 model (May be after its big upgrade). GEM has actually been slightly out performing it recently. 

    Sure i read that the GEM is the top performer over the last 30 days. Problem i have with that is that its for the NH as a whole. Our tiny little corner is probably up there as one of the most turbulent/changable areas so it maybe way off with us but right for the other 90% if that makes sense. Or am i talking twoddle? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Study: University of Reading - Home: Keynsham, Bristol 40m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Study: University of Reading - Home: Keynsham, Bristol 40m ASL
    27 minutes ago, Southender said:

    Question is can the UKMO be wrong at day 4/5? Yes, of course it can. But me personally I would rather a UK model on board with cold than not, over an American/French/Ugandan/*insert any random country you wish model. If we see a UKMO climb down this evening, then we can perhaps start to question whether it has day 4/5 nailed over the rest. My personal feeling is the cold is coming in the next 7-10 days, it’s just how long will it last and how cold will it be are the questions. 

    I completely understand where you are coming from, but I still struggle to believe that the pattern will completely flip being just 96 hours out. We can of course see small changes but I just don't see its latest run being wrong given its current consistency.

    Edited by Ben Sainsbury
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    Posted
  • Location: Wellington, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms/Snow/Hail & Strong Winds
  • Location: Wellington, Somerset
    3 minutes ago, Nicholas B said:

    Sure i read that the GEM is the top performer over the last 30 days. Problem i have with that is that its for the NH as a whole. Our tiny little corner is probably up there as one of the most turbulent/changable areas so it maybe way off with us but right for the other 90% if that makes sense. Or am i talking twoddle? 

    One which is valid! I merely mention it's verification statistics so that it highlights how no one model can be taken as gospel, all models at some point will succeed when overs don't. 

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    Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Not a fan of heatstroke.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
    4 hours ago, karlos1983 said:

    With 10 pages almost in a 12 hour period, Watching the model output last night and this morning keeps bringing me back to Stewarts post (GP) yesterday, favouring an outbreak more towards the end of the Month and into March.. This is a busy place, so some may have missed it, glazed over it, dismissed it (that would be odd) etc. #justsaying 

     

    Indeed - GP's post makes it clear that, although many here will adopt the unthinking approach of dismissing prospects for the end of the month based on an assumption that the cold is always 10 days away, there is sound reasoning to suggest that this is due to the fact that complications relating to Angular Atmospheric Momentum and tropical activity are partially neutralising the immediate effect of the SSW.

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl

    Don't you just love the Mexican plume as we say hello to Narnia:rofl:

    GEM  The new  GOD

    Screenshot_20180215-144716.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
    7 minutes ago, MattTarrant said:

    Anyhow, everyone enjoy the 12z runs! I will be stuck in a laboratory session doing analysis of sedimentary rocks :yahoo:

    Whilst we hopefully watch the GFS and ECM make up for looking like a right pair of clocks.:cold:

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    13 minutes ago, Nicholas B said:

    Sure i read that the GEM is the top performer over the last 30 days. Problem i have with that is that its for the NH as a whole. Our tiny little corner is probably up there as one of the most turbulent/changable areas so it maybe way off with us but right for the other 90% if that makes sense. Or am i talking twoddle? 

    It’s not  - it’s performed better than gfs over the past month though 

    and whilst Exeter have stayed with their cold outlook, they aren’t promising the 00z ukmo with its frigid easterly by next Wednesday!! It looks like a more T192/T240 onset of cold, reading the text. A slack continental/easterly  flow by next thurs is feasible from their forecast. Not long to waIt for the 12z’s. A gfs single run  flip at short range hasn’t been seen for ages. not expecting to see one today !

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    Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
    1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

    It’s not  - it’s performed better than gfs over the past month though 

    and whilst Exeter have stayed with their cold outlook, they aren’t promising the 00z ukmo with its frigid easterly by next Wednesday!! It looks like a more T192/T240 onset of cold, reading the text. A slack continental/easterly  flow by next thurs is feasible from their forecast. Not long to waIt for the 12z’s. A gfs single run  flip at short range hasn’t been seen for ages. not expecting to see one today !

    Equally, I wonder if there'll be a UKMO flip, interesting times.

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    Posted
  • Location: caernarfon(gwynedd)
  • Location: caernarfon(gwynedd)

    Having looked at some of the models last two days and having read met office is view. I believe high pressure with some sliders will be the theme again with Ne/e/se winds and fronts pushing in from the Atlantic not making inroads much. I may be wrong but we shall soon see

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    The GEFS 6z mean is showing an increasingly cold / blocked late Feb / early March..hopefully with some ❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄:):cold-emoji:

    21_240_850tmp.png

    21_264_850tmp.png

    21_288_850tmp.png

    21_312_850tmp.png

    21_336_850tmp.png

    21_384_850tmp.png

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    Message added by Paul

    Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

    For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

    For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

    Thank you!

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