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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?


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Cold - Yes Instability - Yes Prolonged - Yes I just wet myself - Yes!

I quite often agree with your sort of sentiment, as I'm one who opts to look at the most likely solution to fit the signals rather than the preferred one But, equally impartially and with intended

Sorry, I just thought I’d walked into the moans threa.. oh wait. <passes around a big bag of grips> No sooner do we get a cold spell within sight it astonishes me that time and time again some p

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
    1 minute ago, Nick F said:

    00Z EC det. a mild outlier for T2m in London between 23rd-25th, big spread after 23rd, with plenty of increasingly cold members there.

    ensemble-tt6-london.thumb.gif.6f67851d94cd288ee341cee26e5692dd.gif

     

    an increasing number of Mild members though too Nick. Bit of a concern and one to keep an eye on.

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    Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
    1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

    an increasing number of Mild members though too Nick. Bit of a concern and one to keep an eye on.

    not sure you can class it as an outlier at all it has support. The pendulum swings

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    5 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

    an increasing number of Mild members though too Nick. Bit of a concern and one to keep an eye on.

    You need to remember that it will be March  at the end of the run. If we don’t have ‘special’ Synoptics then it won’t show decent cold at the surface. we are still well in the game for ‘special’ sypnotics 

    Edited by bluearmy
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    Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
    10 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

    Can you please justify calling what I said 'absolute nonsense'. I completely disagree. It may not come to pass but there ARE some springlike charts on show this morning. Here is an example, and this is for Sunday which is well inside the reliable:

    GFSOPEU06_84_1.png

    GFSOPUK06_84_17.png

    Monday:

    GFSOPUK06_108_17.png

     

    The temperatures for many parts of England and Wales are well above average for the time of year, and would certainly be in the 'springlike' category in my book. Any chance you could post some proper cold charts in the reliable time frame? If you're in the Scottish Highlands then I stand corrected.

    If you think my view is 'nonsense' then please post some charts to back up your point.

    Well, you arent posting a balanced view seen as you ignore the UKMO which at day 5 shows a stonking easterly, so how can you claim those charts are in a reliable timeframe when we have such disagreement unless you have a crystal ball?

    Fair enough you see it differently but I don't see how you can claim charts to be reliable when the disagreement and difference between the models is so stark

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    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
    1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

    You need to remember that it will be March  at the end of the run. If we don’t have ‘special’ Synoptics then it won’t show decent cold at the surface. we are still well in be game for ‘special’ sypnotics 

    Agree we are still in the game, no question about it. But in comparison to a day ago there are more mild members. Just highlighting as we wouldn't want that to grow..

    3 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

    not sure you can class it as an outlier at all it has support. The pendulum swings

    I think the ECM Op can certainly be classed as an outlier, it's pretty much on it's own in the circled area.

    image.thumb.png.3b97526f53be7831de1d40b3be6e401d.png

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    Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
    Just now, karlos1983 said:

    Agree we are still in the game, no question about it. But in comparison to a day ago there are more mild members. Just highlighting as we wouldn't want that to grow..

    I think the ECM Op can certainly be classed as an outlier, it's pretty much on it's own in the circled area.

    image.thumb.png.3b97526f53be7831de1d40b3be6e401d.png

    But it's not on its own, it has support of three other runs, and its only the night temps that look out of kilter.

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    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
    Just now, frosty ground said:

    But it's not on its own, it has support of three other runs, and its only the night temps that look out of kilter.

    It's issues start before that anyway (19th-21st), so not to much can really be taken from it. Another day of more runs needed mate :wallbash:

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
    11 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

    The GEFS 06z offer almost no support for the UKM run at day 5.

    I think you missed the Irony in my post @Scorcher :rofl:
     

    Yep very little  this the closest  i could find 

    gens-2-1-144.png

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    Whilst we know the ec op was in the smallest eps cluster, we should acknowledge that the ukmo solution was barely much bigger. The good news being there are plenty of clusters so nothing looks resolved 

    watching the NNM dribbling out to see how it handles the shortwave and also arpege at day 5 on its 12z run will be informative 

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  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres

    Short ensembles  show that 1 member  going for cold in the 144 region the others  are very indecisive   Edit   that darn Frosty Ground  

    Diagramme GEFS

    Edited by weirpig
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    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

    Table, options, reasons to be cheerful, all exist

    Diagramme GEFS

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    Posted
  • Location: Windsor
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold
  • Location: Windsor
    1 hour ago, jvenge said:

    Well. I respect the UKMO output and I would rate it above GFS at the range, it is hard to dismiss the GEFS over a single operational.

    Not that I have a vested interest either way. Couldn't care less what comes my way. Double digits would be nice. Missing the outdoor cycling.....

    If blocking sets up too far and we end up with mild SE’ then I wouldn’t mind it either for the cycling ?

    Edited by prolongedSnowLover
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    Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

    J84-21.GIF?15-6

    JMA clearly adores UKMO :D

    J60-21.GIF?15-6 gfs-0-60.png?6

    gfs-0-72.png?6 J72-21.GIF?15-6

    Differences to GFS are already notable at +60 hours as a shallow heads E rather than NE and crosses the UK. 

    J78-594.GIF?15-6

    Result is a wetter Sunday but as prices to pay go, I'd be fine with that if the purchase was an outcome in line with the 00z UKMO for days 5-6.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    46 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

    Well, you arent posting a balanced view seen as you ignore the UKMO which at day 5 shows a stonking easterly, so how can you claim those charts are in a reliable timeframe when we have such disagreement unless you have a crystal ball?

    Fair enough you see it differently but I don't see how you can claim charts to be reliable when the disagreement and difference between the models is so stark

    Have no problem with you disagreeing with me, I just don't think it was fair to call it 'nonsense' as there is plenty of evidence there to back it up. No crystal ball here. The easterly may come off but virtually no one was mentioning the fact that there are also some mild charts showing, some of which are closer to being in the reliable than this supposed easterly, which appears to me to keep being put back.

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    Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts

    Looking forward to the 12z and I guess ICON being the first will provide us with the earliest clue. If it folds on its quick route to cold, then I guess we can expect UKMO to follow and then look towards GFS and ECM for clues as to how things will end up evolving.

    If it sticks to its guns followed by UKMO, then we can be optimistic of a flip in the other two.

    But....having said that...every model coukd flip and at 7pm tonight colder could be rooting for the ECM/GFS solution as opposed to ICON/UKMO/GEM !!

     

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  • Location: Royston , Herts
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW
  • Location: Royston , Herts
    6 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

    Looking forward to the 12z and I guess ICON being the first will provide us with the earliest clue. If it folds on its quick route to cold, then I guess we can expect UKMO to follow and then look towards GFS and ECM for clues as to how things will end up evolving.

    If it sticks to its guns followed by UKMO, then we can be optimistic of a flip in the other two.

    But....having said that...every model coukd flip and at 7pm tonight colder could be rooting for the ECM/GFS solution as opposed to ICON/UKMO/GEM !!

     

    Well I think there will be a flip on the 12z to the UKMO judging by the METO update ?. No downgrade there . And these ensembles for the GFS 6z look very good . 

    IMG_1502.PNG

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  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
    Just now, ICE COLD said:

    Well I think there will be a flip on the 12z to the UKMO judging by the METO update ?. No downgrade there . And these ensembles for the GFS 6z look very good . 

    IMG_1502.PNG

    That's a big call..... Don't think it has updated yet either since the early hours. I am actually quite shocked they have been so bullish so far ahead, given the model disagreements at the moment, doesn't seem wise to me.

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    I know things are getting pretty tense with the model output being distinctly volatile with the Metoffice updates being a valuable source of information. But can we please keep to model discussion in here as there are pages reserved for the metoffice updates already.

    Thank you. :)

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    Message added by Paul

    Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

    For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

    For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

    Thank you!

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