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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?


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Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
    3 minutes ago, That ECM said:

    Look how much the np on the gfs has moved towards ukmo. IF we see a similar reduction again in energy from the nw on the gfs later the rest of the run will go on to look more like ukmo. Imo until this resolved looking past t96 plus is JFF.  Upto t96 on gfs is a step towards ukmo but happy for others to disagree with charts and commentary to back up their thoughts.

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    It has to show on the 12z we can't keep kicking the can down the road. It's cross your fingers time:)

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    Cold - Yes Instability - Yes Prolonged - Yes I just wet myself - Yes!

    I quite often agree with your sort of sentiment, as I'm one who opts to look at the most likely solution to fit the signals rather than the preferred one But, equally impartially and with intended

    Sorry, I just thought I’d walked into the moans threa.. oh wait. <passes around a big bag of grips> No sooner do we get a cold spell within sight it astonishes me that time and time again some p

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    Posted
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All seasons veteran of the 1981 winter
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL

    According to the 06z  we could be having some spring like temperatures at last from late next week. 

    It would suit me and probably millions of other people. 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks.81 absl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks.81 absl
    7 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

    And now it's way way north ? By day 10 . Should be a good FI 

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    Still leaves little old us in the gap until last. You couldn't make it up lol.

    If it was a biblical parting of the sea,we'd still end up getting sprayed.

    Edited by joggs
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    Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury
    3 minutes ago, sorepaw1 said:

    According to the 06z  we could be having some spring like temperatures at last from late next week. 

    It would suit me and probably millions of other people. 

     

    Does it??? at 174 it has temps of 7c

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
    1 hour ago, frosty ground said:

    Can we declare a winner when we haven't past the finish line. 

    can we read read the post to identify that there wasnt a winner declared -

    just observations on form & where models sit-

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    Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sunny crisp frosty days & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
    2 hours ago, Scorcher said:

    I don't often follow the models during winter, but I personally think there is more to be positive about this morning if you want an early taste of spring.

    It seems a lot of people on here pick and choose which model they favour from day to day, simply because it shows the colder option. The GFS or ECM Ops are not showing anything cold at all to my eyes- in fact we get mild southerlies later on on the GFS run (not excessively so, however).

    The ECM does look very mild at times with more of a SW flow later on.

    I have always been dubious of an Easterly unless the UKMO is on board, no cherry picking from me so not sure what your getting at there. Simply saying that I feel positive it's the UKMO showing an Easterly over the other 2. But you don't often follow the models during Winter do you.

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    Posted
  • Location: North Somerset
  • Location: North Somerset

    So the QTR is well gone...are we actually seeing a SSW response? Even in FI? Is the UKMET easterly actually because of the SSW? Is the PV actually splitting and being destroyed? Genuine questions. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.

    A heck of a chart here in deep FI, vortex displaced to Siberia. High pressure stretching from Kazakhstan to Greenland.

    gfsnh-0-372.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
    2 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

    A heck of a chart here in deep FI, vortex displaced to Siberia. High pressure stretching from Kazakhstan to Greenland.

    gfsnh-0-372.png

    Quite...

    Yet....how did the UK avoid cold air when high pressure was sent up into the arctic like that? :) That's quite a feat for T360 hours of output during an SSW when high pressure is around.

    Of course, won't happen. Still interesting though.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    I think that if the UKMO isn't correct here, it must surely back down on the 12z.  Won't it?

    Looking at the verification stats for T144, for the last week or so - either side of the SSW, the UKMO has been right up there ahead of both GFS and ECM - whether this is significant or not, we'll have to wait and see.  Stats for 0z and 12z:

    cor_day6_HGT_P500_G2NHX.png

    cor_day6_HGT_P500_G2NHX.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
    29 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

    With 10 pages almost in a 12 hour period, Watching the model output last night and this morning keeps bringing me back to Stewarts post (GP) yesterday, favouring an outbreak more towards the end of the Month and into March.. This is a busy place, so some may have missed it, glazed over it, dismissed it (that would be odd) etc. #justsaying 

     

    Yep agree with that and sits nicely with my LRF update musings, been saying for a while now coldest surge beginning of March.  Although some models go for quick clean easterly.  We’ll see how it pans out.

     

    BFTP

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    Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
    1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

    If only this was at day 5 . Lots of northern blocking . 

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    i would rather be seeing this at day 5-

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    oh look- it IS at day 5! :D

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    Posted
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
    3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    I think that if the UKMO isn't correct here, it must surely back down on the 12z.  Won't it?

    Looking at the verification stats for T144, for the last week or so - either side of the SSW, the UKMO has been right up there ahead of both GFS and ECM - whether this is significant or not, we'll have to wait and see.  Stats for 0z and 12z:

    cor_day6_HGT_P500_G2NHX.png

    cor_day6_HGT_P500_G2NHX.png

     

    Well. I respect the UKMO output and I would rate it above GFS at the range, it is hard to dismiss the GEFS over a single operational.

    Not that I have a vested interest either way. Couldn't care less what comes my way. Double digits would be nice. Missing the outdoor cycling.....

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    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

    Interesting Panel at +96 for the GEFS. many drop that low south, this really is the key time frame, once we get agreement on that a clearer path forward should hopefully start showing. 

    gens_panel_gaz4.png 

    Edited by karlos1983
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    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
    11 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

    If anything, these timescales may have come forward a touch on overnight data. Much more movement of tropical indices towards the Indian Ocean, favouring GWO phase 1 response.

    However, here's where I'm constrained by calendar monthly analysis.

    Composite for GWO Feb phase 1:

    5a856582dbde5_gwophase1feb.thumb.gif.d7e56c09e9634de4c8c1df7165ec5f9f.gif

    Composite for GWO March phase 1: 

    5a856585eaab6_gwophase1march.thumb.gif.6a1d5c969c7a16b1444206ce3fc6522e.gif

    Surely it couldn't be that simple ?

    The compromise between the two would best fit - amalgamating both Feb and March dates gives:

    5a85671c75e8a_gwophase1febandmarch.thumb.gif.36ffe2d211d059a6f9332f3dc440ed85.gif

    Not particularly helpful, but does suggest Euro trough is the key factor here. Model with best fit on this seems to be the GEM operational.

    Today’s operational Stewart?  GEM has negative tilted trough to our W/SW not height rises according to that composite?

     

    BFTP

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    Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
    22 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    can we read read the post to identify that there wasnt a winner declared -

    just observations on form & where models sit-

    Sorry when you wrote big win I assumed you meant winner. 

    I can only assume you can have a big win if you indeed actually win. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    2 hours ago, frosty ground said:

    :hi:

    A lot of he models show early taste of spring to be fair, but then again early spring weather can be rather wide ranging.

     

    Thank you for your balance on this, only saying what I can see in the charts in the reliable time frame.

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    Message added by Paul

    Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

    For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

    For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

    Thank you!

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