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Paul

Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?

Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

Message added by Paul

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Lovely snow event for those snow starved in the SE at 240hrs, as we see a reload of cold heading into Scandi thanks to the retrogressing high.

h850t850eu.pngukprec.png

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Is that an Area low pressure moving across the South East England blizzards 

FC3A64E9-E75E-4820-B1CE-A83A7496D448.png

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51 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

I was pondering if a SE flow off the English channel might bring snow to southern  coastal areas... as cold uppers and a SE flow I don’t believe is something I’ve seen before in my model watching years, so unknown territory for me... cheers MWB 😀

It's exactly what we should be looking for down here. It used to happen a lot more in the 80s. SE / SSE and cold uppers will pile in snow showers for southern costal areas.

Hopefully laying a nice snowy base for the big one. A full on frontal attack from a moisture laden system following in from the south west!!

 

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2 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

On the tarmac @Gatwick-

ECM looks poorly resolved @120 over scandi- out of kilter with GFS / UKMO blend- but post day 5 still gets there

The wave that the models have at about 168/192 coming west through Europe is perfect timing to reinforce the cold -- Also bringing heavy snow from the east- something that never happens these days-

If any of these model land them the snow totals for the UK will be epic

s

Steve, your good at reading output but rubbish at commuting, you actually need to get on the plane:D

 

right, trying to find my channel low, this has possibilities.

IMG_0600.PNG

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3 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

Is that an Area low pressure moving across the South East England blizzards 

FC3A64E9-E75E-4820-B1CE-A83A7496D448.png

South of England in its entirety!!!!!! Not just the SE!! :p

5EF6AD8A-0B2D-41C7-BC71-513DF0844412.thumb.png.be215ab48907124471bfb78df4565a95.png

Edited by karlos1983

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2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

South of England in its entirety!!!!!! Not just the SE!! :p

5EF6AD8A-0B2D-41C7-BC71-513DF0844412.thumb.png.be215ab48907124471bfb78df4565a95.png

Yes karlos southern England could be in for a dumping..:cold::cold:

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I was supposed to be going to see Paul Weller at the NEC on the 2nd of March, but looking at the current output that could put the cat among the pigeons, in terms of getting there, but then again it is 10 days away.

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Nuts run - best run yet in terms of widespread snow cover but higher risk getting so close to the higher uppers to our south

ecm day day spreads on 850’s indicates this is a cluster on the eps table 

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1 minute ago, Southender said:

Bonkers run. Start to finish, locked in cold, snow showers, frontal snow & blizzards, reloads, greenie highs and the lot for all. Bank please

It's bizzare isn't it. Every run we scream "they can't get better than this" and every run there's some iteration that is better for certain people. This is probably not quite as good as last nights but it's not really any worse.

Anyway precip rates seem a bit odd - as has been pointed out above, only 8-10cm in 12 hours from that blizzard according to the precip chart, not a chance.

No chart available for the selected hour. Many charts start at 3 hours ahead, so if you have 0 hours selected try stepping forward or selecting a later hour.

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18 minutes ago, sarahjhd said:

How do you get to this?

Let's say the chance of getting a massive high-latitude block like currently modeled in a year are 20%, 1 in 5 (only for illustration), this is probably a requirement for all three things MIA quoted: beast from the east, channel low and polar vortex low.  This means if you take into account the correlation and not count this probability three times, you'd need to reduce the odds of the combination by about a factor 5*5 = 25. 

Edited by Mike Poole

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06Z was probably one of the greatest runs of all time. Even finishes with a 1947-esque snowstorm.

gfs-0-384.png?6

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Looks like the Atlantic might make it in....


By March 8th. Bless it.

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Signs starting appear in the output now of a more prolonged nature to this cold spell, (should we be calling it that? Doesn’t seem to do it justice) 

worth watching he ens now for that signal in the extended range!

yet another great start to the day. I’m exhausted!

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1 minute ago, Southender said:

Looks like the Atlantic might make it in....


By March 8th. Bless it.

Yup, seems to be making inroads at the absolute la la land end of the run, with a mild SW'ly breeze and some rain for the south coast. Probably be welcomed by many at that point!

No chart available for the selected hour. Many charts start at 3 hours ahead, so if you have 0 hours selected try stepping forward or selecting a later hour.

 

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Slightly unexpected cluster on the ECM ensembles this morning:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018022000_192.

Cluster 2 looks a touch more northerly than easterly. Won't stop it being cold but might change the longevity of the cold pool over the UK and the volume of snow that could be achieved.

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5 minutes ago, Catacol said:

 

I'll hold to the claims. I think the next 2 weeks could go down in the history books as one of those special events. A ramp? Yes - but take a look at the output and the signals. All irrelevant now of course cos it hasn't happened yet - but after the event we can review. :-)

Personally I feel the above is a very fair assessment of the current situation based on the output I have seen.

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18 minutes ago, DIS1970 said:

I was supposed to be going to see Paul Weller at the NEC on the 2nd of March, but looking at the current output that could put the cat among the pigeons, in terms of getting there, but then again it is 10 days away.

You might want to go " down in the tude station at midnight" to warm up!!!

i will get my coat:hi:

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