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Paul

Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?

Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

Message added by Paul

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1 hour ago, shane303 said:

The models could Still all change alot to a less cold set up so won’t be a done deal until maybe Thursday 

You giving daffodils a reprieve based on what ? Don't you think its their time to suffer just once.

GFS Monday morning

Netweather GFS Image

Bury them, just once 

Image result for daffodils frozen snow

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6 minutes ago, radiohead said:

Oh my god!!

ECU0-240.GIF?20-12ECU1-240.GIF?20-12

Upgrade after upgrade, all nuances rather than wholesale changes, but all lining up to be something that may have been worth waiting for.

Not sure I'll be getting many miles in early March... One of those kinks is pretty much over my gaff! 

To Paraphrase Roy Scheider "we're gonna need a bigger shovel" 

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5 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

If only this day 10 chart was day 3...

About as severe as you'll get in the UK in terms of depth of cold/snow

ECM1-240.GIF?20-12

You won't know what to do with yourself if the severe cold actually arrives as planned Crewe, you won't be able to make pessimistic posts about it not happening and always being in FI :) I'm not seeing the ICON being given much love this morning so here goes, closer to the ECM and UKMO solution at that time frame than the GFS but all roads lead to cold it seems with the current output, so glass is increasingly looking like it will be half full!

iconeu-0-180.png

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Just now, radiohead said:

Oh my god!!

ECU0-240.GIF?20-12ECU1-240.GIF?20-12

That low actually went east across the country from 219-240 major snow event for the south

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3 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

So this morning's op runs summarised - 6 slightly different ways of sending the UK into the freezer.

I don’t know what to say my bearded friend 

5AA2A965-4F90-4B85-AF66-A22F1620F339.jpeg

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1 hour ago, Timmytour said:

I really don't understand all the excitement. A cold snap that looks like it will be all over by mid-April.... 

Why do some always see the end before it's begun:rofl::D

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8 minutes ago, Fozfoster said:

Just for fun ECM

A21E06B8-3C8A-4622-842B-BD1DFE4529E6.png

Hi, Looking at the charts from the top 3 models and seeing that the projected easterly is by no means a weak flow, in fact quite robust I have no issues being on the west side of the pennines. Last time we saw charts like these snow depths were up to a foot in parts of the west with drifting up to 10 ft high.

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Keep waking up expecting everything has gone TU and a complete meltdown but it's okay :rofl::yahoo: Hoping for more upgrades.

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3 minutes ago, Sn0wmad79 said:

Hi, Looking at the charts from the top 3 models and seeing that the projected easterly is by no means a weak flow, in fact quite robust I have no issues being on the west side of the pennines. Last time we saw charts like these snow depths were up to a foot in parts of the west with drifting up to 10 ft high.

It wasn't good for all tho. CC only got 10 inches of snow and 8 foot drifts:D JFF CC:D

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Another outstanding set of runs from every single model (that matters), putting the UK in the freezer by the end of this upcoming weekend and keeping us on ice for the following week. GEM/UKMO/GFS/ECM all rock solid. 

ECM midnight run yesterday vs ECM midnight run today. Both for next Thursday (0100 March 1). Will be interesting to do the same exercise with tonight's run bearing in mind how incredible the Euro model's charts were last night. Either way, beautiful synoptics and nothing to worry or complain about. Bring on the Beast!

ECH1-240.GIF-2.thumb.png.ad9e5209cd4b0c466de13c9e8d26863a.pngECH1-216.GIF.thumb.png.d7c92048bfb9be87288d57b1a6de9a69.png

ECH0-240.GIF.thumb.png.11115cb77f025c0902b22dc61f3a3e7c.pngECH0-216.GIF.thumb.png.908fd2afe16cc572db05ce1a36bd945d.png

Also, a like-for-like comparison with the latest GFS ensembles show the latest run is the coldest yet with average uppers of -12 or less for the first part of the week in Eastern counties. Quite the set. Seems B&Q will be on the phone to @chionomaniac wanting their salt back quick sharp this morning. Not sure I've ever seen such cross model agreement for any event so far out, not least one as potentially historic as the cold plunge surely coming our way. Only a day or two more before I dare tell the kids. By jingo it's exciting. Can't imagine what the atmosphere's going to be like in here by the weekend if the wheels haven't fallen off by then. God help the mods either way. Suggest we all do our bit in the meantime to save Him (or Her) the bother.

GFSENS00_53_-1_205.thumb.png.27fc3d3e56dc56cdfaff0f747a02d603.png

 

 

Edited by supernova

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Its interesting looking at forecasts for central Europe as a comparator. You can see the temp gradient moving down. Berlin as an example shifting down to -12C by 1st March. Everything is on the same hymn sheet 

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I might say it alone this morning but I'll say what I believe the ecm is not great in the short term

1) It delays everything by 36 hours

2) Heights are too close would much rather the high pressure further north in the midterm

3) It moves the high too fast to Greenland and doesn't allow the easterly cold to get a proper deep hold over the country.

Now after saying all that I'll run for the door😆😆

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'Again' we take yet another step forwards!!!

Can't quite beleive im quoting that!!!

However-i am...and its true.

We have to begin to ponder the possible consequenses here.

Those ensembles are ridiculous!!!

Cracking-and gaining(yet further)!!!!!

temp4.png

MT8_London_ens (2).png

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6 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

I might say it alone this morning but I'll say what I believe the ecm is not great in the short term

1) It delays everything by 36 hours

2) Heights are too close would much rather the high pressure further north in the midterm

3) It moves the high too fast to Greenland and doesn't allow the easterly cold to get a proper deep hold over the country.

Now after saying all that I'll run for the door😆😆

I agree that the ECM is making me nervous a touch. It seems to keep the cold at 168 / 192. When it does arrive it is great, but I want this done quickly now, as the longer we wait the more the wheels could start to come off.

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Wow! Just, wow! I fully expected to wake up to downgrades this morning but thankfully not.

This is shaping up to be amazing for us coldies, dare i say reminiscent of Jan 87? However, it's getting to the stage where there could be potentially widespread and serious consequences for an infrastructure that is not used to these events.

In short, get stocked up on essentials, make sure you've a shovel in your car, and check on the elderly when you can.

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Could someone post the ecm ens when they have a chance? Would be good to see where the op sits re arrival of cold 

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Just some snap shots from the GFS 00z , for those who missed it . Sorry @Frosty. I'm nicking your net weather job 😁. It's cold the whole way out 👍🏻

IMG_1646.PNG

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IMG_1653.PNG

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IMG_1655.PNG

IMG_1656.PNG

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The ECM mean at 96 hrs looks like it's bringing the Cold West slightly earlier,  ECM mean complete and it brings the cold about 24 hours earlier 

Screenshot_20180220-074722.png

Screenshot_20180220-075104.png

Edited by seabreeze86

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2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

On the tarmac @Gatwick-

ECM looks poorly resolved @120 over scandi- out of kilter with GFS / UKMO blend- but post day 5 still gets there

The wave that the models have at about 168/192 coming west through Europe is perfect timing to reinforce the cold -- Also bringing heavy snow from the east- something that never happens these days-

If any of these model land them the snow totals for the UK will be epic

s

Where are you off to Steve. I’m at Gatwick too. Away to Mexico for a week. Hoping ECM is right as that gives my return flight a chance of landing and me being able to drive home. If Gfs is correct, I suspect Gatwick will be closed when I am due to land

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