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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?


Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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Cold - Yes Instability - Yes Prolonged - Yes I just wet myself - Yes!

I quite often agree with your sort of sentiment, as I'm one who opts to look at the most likely solution to fit the signals rather than the preferred one But, equally impartially and with intended

Sorry, I just thought I’d walked into the moans threa.. oh wait. <passes around a big bag of grips> No sooner do we get a cold spell within sight it astonishes me that time and time again some p

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ECM OP at the top of the pack Sat-Mon which would suggest it’s slight delay of the cold onset is likely the wrong evolution as it stands. Unreal.

Edited by Southender
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19 minutes ago, BlakeyWeather said:

Even the hailed ICON is on board this morning so its in the bag :D

There was snow up to the gutters at Blakey in 2010 so anything less if this spell happens and I will be very disappointed.

icon-0-180.png?20-00snowtables.jpg

Holy #### thats some snow drift !!....anyway back to the models, still looking good...some even suggesting the colder air makes an appearance 'slightly' sooner than thought to my very untrained eye?..

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21 minutes ago, Gustywind said:

Quick question. Those runs that bring in less cold or even mild conditions at the beginning of March, is that due to low pressure from the SW pushing N/NE bringing a breakdown snow to rain event? Or is it due to another form of less exciting breakdown?

In a roundabout way @Mucka‘s excellent post below yours answers your question I think, GW. Well worth a read.

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1 hour ago, Seasonality said:

You won't know what to do with yourself if the severe cold actually arrives as planned Crewe, you won't be able to make pessimistic posts about it not happening and always being in FI :) I'm not seeing the ICON being given much love this morning so here goes, closer to the ECM and UKMO solution at that time frame than the GFS but all roads lead to cold it seems with the current output, so glass is increasingly looking like it will be half full!

iconeu-0-180.png

I was just thinking that - the Icon has been mentioned with regular abandon recently but not much today. 

The -10 850’s don’t really make inroads until Tuesday which is 24/36 hours later than most other models. 

In that respect it’s on its own. Even slower than the ECM

As for me, if we get another Feb 1991 type snow event here in West Yorkshire, that’ll do me!

Talking of Feb 1991, how come you haven’t been posting in here as much recently @feb1991blizzard?

Edited by Paul_1978
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Now the UKMO is showing these Siberian conditions within the reliable timeframe:

Europe goes into the freezer, and we are next:

image.thumb.gif.cc3bb73902493de9e34301ac6748934a.gif

The air is being drawn all the way from Siberia directly to our shores - I've never seen that before.....

image.thumb.gif.ac4fae312a51eb31523a40ca076f7080.gif     image.thumb.gif.a91a29dd382f3657465dfc58fc510170.gif

Looks like the coldest air on the planet is lining itself up to pay the UK a visit - incredible images.  We will certainly be talking about these conditions for years to come, and I wouldn't be surprised if the next two weeks goes into folk memory alongside the best winter weather of the last 50 years.  

Its not a good time to be a model watcher, though......the iPad batteries are taking a right bashing!

Some disruptive weather ahead is now looking unavoidable.

 

Edited by Sky Full
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ECM ensemble summary for London

graphe_ens3.php?mode=0&x=&y=&run=0&ville

Slight increase towards the end probably due to a few runs containing lows coming up from the south (snow) and more than a few runs introducing a "mild" sector from the north before the next cold plunge. Probably another cluster staying easterly. It's all cold whatever :)

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A bit of a role reversal this morning .

The GFS is keener on the stronger omega block than the ECM.

The latter still intent on creeping the cold in a bit later but it does get there.

The UKMO looks great with the cold now due to arrive by day 6.

Overall no major overnight dramas and still on track for a superb end to the winter season.

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6 minutes ago, Glenn Redwood said:

Mt.Sinabung has just erupted in Indonesia. How will this impact the reversal of NH winds?

It won't I would think, based on current data on the current size of the eruption it is too small to have any real effect, the amount of sulphur released is too low and the plume has not reached the stratosphere. Larger eruptions can inject aerosols into the strat that both cool the earth's surface by reflecting solar radiation and warm the strat itself by absorbing terrestrial radiation and this effect can change tropospheric and stratospheric circulation, but as I said, this one isn't big enough.

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Look at the wind chill and DP’s for Sunday!!

debating whether to tell my brothers or laugh at them as we wonder between pubs at Wembley in Sunday afternoon?

A223B7A1-F7D1-42E7-8999-3470805111B9.thumb.gif.70c8179c13129fc8486fb12c7d317dfb.gifE7272FE9-3389-46AF-A588-C27CB82BCA52.thumb.gif.28a7e0b638162366e648abed5114b83a.gif

how certain are we this cold air will arrive? Because I am at the point I’m not sure I can hold off telling people for much longer. Looks nailed to me, but I’ve got that nagging feeling to hold off!!

Edited by karlos1983
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4 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Look at the wind chill and DP’s for Sunday!!

debating whether to tell my brothers or laugh at them as we wonder between pubs at Wembley in Sunday afternoon?

A223B7A1-F7D1-42E7-8999-3470805111B9.thumb.gif.70c8179c13129fc8486fb12c7d317dfb.gifE7272FE9-3389-46AF-A588-C27CB82BCA52.thumb.gif.28a7e0b638162366e648abed5114b83a.gif

how certain are we this cold air will arrive? Because I am at the point I’m not sure I can hold off telling people for much longer. Looks nailed to me, but I’ve got that nagging feeling to hold off!!

Cold spell - Very high confidence.

Significant cold and snowy spell - Moderate confidence.

Should the model output be unchanged by Thursday, I think confidence in a significant cold spell will be high.

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3 minutes ago, Glenn Redwood said:

This set up looks more potent than 1991?

Potentially. The coldest upper air in the south may end up being a degree or two less cold than 1991 but the overall area of very cold air looks like it will be larger than 1991. It's far too early to predict snowfall amounts though. 

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4 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

image.thumb.png.b57be6a2657711a3ae5e5be3ad66b491.png

Anyone else concerned by the Scandi feature on the 00z at T72? Likely to be the reason for the delay in the coldest air. Stunning output though.

This feature has been flagging up randomly-last 48 hrs!!

Although-its progress north-eastwards has been a decent dynamic-via run 2 run consequence.

So not a problem imo.

Edited by tight isobar
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14 minutes ago, Snowyowl9 said:

Chart of the millemium.

Rtavn1921.gif

Definitely saving that pic.

Incredible and let's all be honest, there isn't one person who has been able to keep a lid on it and hasn't told anyone. :D

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