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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?


Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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Cold - Yes Instability - Yes Prolonged - Yes I just wet myself - Yes!

I quite often agree with your sort of sentiment, as I'm one who opts to look at the most likely solution to fit the signals rather than the preferred one But, equally impartially and with intended

Sorry, I just thought I’d walked into the moans threa.. oh wait. <passes around a big bag of grips> No sooner do we get a cold spell within sight it astonishes me that time and time again some p

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3 minutes ago, Sn0wmad79 said:

Hi, Looking at the charts from the top 3 models and seeing that the projected easterly is by no means a weak flow, in fact quite robust I have no issues being on the west side of the pennines. Last time we saw charts like these snow depths were up to a foot in parts of the west with drifting up to 10 ft high.

It wasn't good for all tho. CC only got 10 inches of snow and 8 foot drifts:D JFF CC:D

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Another outstanding set of runs from every single model (that matters), putting the UK in the freezer by the end of this upcoming weekend and keeping us on ice for the following week. GEM/UKMO/GFS/ECM all rock solid. 

ECM midnight run yesterday vs ECM midnight run today. Both for next Thursday (0100 March 1). Will be interesting to do the same exercise with tonight's run bearing in mind how incredible the Euro model's charts were last night. Either way, beautiful synoptics and nothing to worry or complain about. Bring on the Beast!

ECH1-240.GIF-2.thumb.png.ad9e5209cd4b0c466de13c9e8d26863a.pngECH1-216.GIF.thumb.png.d7c92048bfb9be87288d57b1a6de9a69.png

ECH0-240.GIF.thumb.png.11115cb77f025c0902b22dc61f3a3e7c.pngECH0-216.GIF.thumb.png.908fd2afe16cc572db05ce1a36bd945d.png

Also, a like-for-like comparison with the latest GFS ensembles show the latest run is the coldest yet with average uppers of -12 or less for the first part of the week in Eastern counties. Quite the set. Seems B&Q will be on the phone to @chionomaniac wanting their salt back quick sharp this morning. Not sure I've ever seen such cross model agreement for any event so far out, not least one as potentially historic as the cold plunge surely coming our way. Only a day or two more before I dare tell the kids. By jingo it's exciting. Can't imagine what the atmosphere's going to be like in here by the weekend if the wheels haven't fallen off by then. God help the mods either way. Suggest we all do our bit in the meantime to save Him (or Her) the bother.

GFSENS00_53_-1_205.thumb.png.27fc3d3e56dc56cdfaff0f747a02d603.png

 

 

Edited by supernova
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I might say it alone this morning but I'll say what I believe the ecm is not great in the short term

1) It delays everything by 36 hours

2) Heights are too close would much rather the high pressure further north in the midterm

3) It moves the high too fast to Greenland and doesn't allow the easterly cold to get a proper deep hold over the country.

Now after saying all that I'll run for the door??

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'Again' we take yet another step forwards!!!

Can't quite beleive im quoting that!!!

However-i am...and its true.

We have to begin to ponder the possible consequenses here.

Those ensembles are ridiculous!!!

Cracking-and gaining(yet further)!!!!!

temp4.png

MT8_London_ens (2).png

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6 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

I might say it alone this morning but I'll say what I believe the ecm is not great in the short term

1) It delays everything by 36 hours

2) Heights are too close would much rather the high pressure further north in the midterm

3) It moves the high too fast to Greenland and doesn't allow the easterly cold to get a proper deep hold over the country.

Now after saying all that I'll run for the door??

I agree that the ECM is making me nervous a touch. It seems to keep the cold at 168 / 192. When it does arrive it is great, but I want this done quickly now, as the longer we wait the more the wheels could start to come off.

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Wow! Just, wow! I fully expected to wake up to downgrades this morning but thankfully not.

This is shaping up to be amazing for us coldies, dare i say reminiscent of Jan 87? However, it's getting to the stage where there could be potentially widespread and serious consequences for an infrastructure that is not used to these events.

In short, get stocked up on essentials, make sure you've a shovel in your car, and check on the elderly when you can.

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2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

On the tarmac @Gatwick-

ECM looks poorly resolved @120 over scandi- out of kilter with GFS / UKMO blend- but post day 5 still gets there

The wave that the models have at about 168/192 coming west through Europe is perfect timing to reinforce the cold -- Also bringing heavy snow from the east- something that never happens these days-

If any of these model land them the snow totals for the UK will be epic

s

Where are you off to Steve. I’m at Gatwick too. Away to Mexico for a week. Hoping ECM is right as that gives my return flight a chance of landing and me being able to drive home. If Gfs is correct, I suspect Gatwick will be closed when I am due to land

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15 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

I might say it alone this morning but I'll say what I believe the ecm is not great in the short term

1) It delays everything by 36 hours

2) Heights are too close would much rather the high pressure further north in the midterm

3) It moves the high too fast to Greenland and doesn't allow the easterly cold to get a proper deep hold over the country.

Now after saying all that I'll run for the door??

Agree, but really it’s only not great if you compare it to the other 5 star charts from other models, ECM is more 4 and three quarter stars! It’s still incredible and we’d all have happily banked it if offered it a week ago. I’d still bank it now in fact!

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2 minutes ago, seabreeze86 said:

The ECM mean at 96 hrs looks like it's bringing the Cold West slightly earlier 

Screenshot_20180220-074722.png

Yup, at 144 it’s interchangeable with GFS UKMO and GEM etc 

 

952474B5-7D4D-44CE-BFC3-845AA56BD870.gif

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24 minutes ago, supernova said:

Another outstanding set of runs from every single model (that matters), putting the UK in the freezer by the end of this upcoming weekend and keeping us on ice for the following week. GEM/UKMO/GFS/ECM all rock solid. 

ECM midnight run yesterday vs ECM midnight run today. Both for next Thursday (0100 March 1). Will be interesting to do the same exercise with tonight's run bearing in mind how incredible the Euro model's charts were last night. Either way, beautiful synoptics and nothing to worry or complain about. Bring on the Beast!

ECH1-240.GIF-2.thumb.png.ad9e5209cd4b0c466de13c9e8d26863a.pngECH1-216.GIF.thumb.png.d7c92048bfb9be87288d57b1a6de9a69.png

ECH0-240.GIF.thumb.png.11115cb77f025c0902b22dc61f3a3e7c.pngECH0-216.GIF.thumb.png.908fd2afe16cc572db05ce1a36bd945d.png

Also, a like-for-like comparison with the latest GFS ensembles show the latest run is the coldest yet with average uppers of -12 or less for the first part of the week in Eastern counties. Quite the set. Seems B&Q will be on the phone to @chionomaniac wanting their salt back quick sharp this morning. Not sure I've ever seen such cross model agreement for any event so far out, not least one as potentially historic as the cold plunge surely coming our way. Only a day or two more before I dare tell the kids. By jingo it's exciting. Can't imagine what the atmosphere's going to be like in here by the weekend if the wheels haven't fallen off by then. God help the mods either way. Suggest we all do our bit in the meantime to save Him (or Her) the bother.

GFSENS00_53_-1_205.thumb.png.27fc3d3e56dc56cdfaff0f747a02d603.png

 

 

Quick question. Those runs that bring in less cold or even mild conditions at the beginning of March, is that due to low pressure from the SW pushing N/NE bringing a breakdown snow to rain event? Or is it due to another form of less exciting breakdown?

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1 hour ago, MattStoke said:

High moving towards Greenland by 192 hours - ECM1-192_zhj3.GIF

Confused by posts about the Met Office outlook. It hasn't changed since yesterday. It's exactly the same.

Might be talking about the regional as ours (Yorkshire) has gone from turning colder Friday to isolated snow flurries from Friday onwards on overnight update

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