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Paul

Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?

Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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Strange snow charts, almost opposite distribution to what you would expect??

 

 

5.png.dbf2733b576c4634aba1019fed59b83f.png

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Unbelievable!!!! The biggest thing for me is UKMO is stunning and on board ??. I'm just gob smacked 

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8 minutes ago, KTtom said:

Strange snow charts, almost opposite distribution to what you would expect??

 

 

5.png.dbf2733b576c4634aba1019fed59b83f.png

You’d think the south of England would do well in this, unless these charts don’t pick up convection 

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Honestly - ignore these snow charts! Streamers are macro features that will only be picked up by hi-res modelling in near time.

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There's a clear trend to bring the cold in faster now...so not only is the cold upgrading but more significantly the starting time is getting closer

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10 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

You’d think the south of England would do well in this, unless these charts don’t pick up convection 

I don’t think they do, there is no way the South will be dry 

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ECM looks a bit messy to me at day 4

ECH1-96.GIF?20-12

Edit: Phew looks ok by day 5

ECH1-120.GIF?20-12

Edited by CreweCold
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1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

ECM looks a bit messy to me at day 4

ECH1-96.GIF?20-12

Looks very similar to me. T96 for all 3. It's just a little slower imo. 

IMG_0588.PNG

IMG_0589.PNG

IMG_0590.PNG

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Excellent runs this morning. Incredible last few days of model watching. And as if we couldn't ask for more I suggest a peak at the overnight MO update:-)

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3 minutes ago, Decemberof2010 said:

Excellent runs this morning. Incredible last few days of model watching. And as if we couldn't ask for more I suggest a peak at the overnight MO update:-)

Any links to that ?

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Slower evolution on ecm at t120 but looks ok. 

 

Edited by Fingers

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Wow just wow. Ecm gem ukmo gfs icon all absolutely freezing. And all the fun and games start as early as Sunday. With snow showers spreading into eastern areas. Before most of us all see some snow next week. Wrap up warm folks it’s gonna get cold :cold::cold::cold:

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Day 6 ECM is slower compared to the GFS, seems a theme that it struggles to cut off the high

IMG_0307.PNG

IMG_0308.GIF

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1 minute ago, January Snowstorm said:

Very slow from ecm and heights very close to the UK. Out to 144hrs and not as good as gfs or ukmo

Whilst all the other models upgrade the cold and bring it forward, we then have the ECM that appears to go AWOL very early on into its run...I said it looked messy at day 4...

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Wash, rinse, repeat. 

some of the best concensus across main models i have ever seen.

old enough to remember some great winters hope the younger generation get to see and enjoy it

 

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So, just to clarify, people are annoyed that we may have to wait 12/24 hours for -14/16 850s:D

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3 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

Very slow from ecm and heights very close to the UK. Out to 144hrs and not as good as gfs or ukmo

Patience. There's uppers of -25 marching west. It would still be regarded as a stellar run from anyone's standards! 

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2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Whilst all the other models upgrade the cold and bring it forward, we then have the ECM that appears to go AWOL very early on into its run...I said it looked messy at day 4...

Your being far too picky , really you are 

CA31BA8D-1860-40A2-9F56-FE54F322B9A2.png

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