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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?


Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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Cold - Yes Instability - Yes Prolonged - Yes I just wet myself - Yes!

I quite often agree with your sort of sentiment, as I'm one who opts to look at the most likely solution to fit the signals rather than the preferred one But, equally impartially and with intended

Sorry, I just thought I’d walked into the moans threa.. oh wait. <passes around a big bag of grips> No sooner do we get a cold spell within sight it astonishes me that time and time again some p

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4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Possibly one of the most beautiful Greenland highs you'll see modelled

gfsnh-0-204.png

Textbook.

These runs are simply sublime,  you would struggle to draw a more perfect Greeny High. 

Edited by The Enigma
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Alarm set 15 mins earlier to trawl through models and i’d like to say i’m not disappointed!!!! Deep cold in by t120- t126,  it’s coming down and looking world class, the models just keep giving! 

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So then, this morning the GFS has the bitter cold entering the UK by Sunday 

gfs-1-132.png

UKMO is around the same time with the -8C isotherm arriving Sunday morning but the bitter cold is well and truly across the UK by this point below.

UW144-7.GIF?20-05

GEM, good consensus with the cold air being brought in if anything a little earlier.

gem-1-126.png?00

 

The UKMO still looks best with the strongest cold pool linking all the way back to Siberia but both the GFS and GEM keep that easterly going for a good few days before we see the pattern switch towards blocking to our north west with the rememants of the polar vortex starting to drop towards Scandinavia by the 8-10 day period.

GEM/GFS day 10

gemnh-0-240.png?00   gfsnh-0-240.png

Another stunning set of runs this morning so far.

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This is not like anything I've witnessed in my short time model watching nor probably anything my generation have witnessed being 24 in march.. 

I think seeing last night every model we are able to view and trust bringing the cold in by the weekend and watching the ECM come on board was world class. 

Today I think will be the £10m day where if we can get into Wednesday with similar charts, we will be on course for a historical event. We have started the day rather well.. 

These kinds of setups and level of cold are a once in 50 years kind of pattern for our tiny island anyway 

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Wow wow wow.

This set up takes me back to February 1986 and January 1987. That’s the famous Ian McKaskell forecast on YouTube if you look. Bitterly cold with frontal snow that caused here.

And then joy of joys the winds turn more NE towards the end of the run. Fabulous stuff.

2DDC26DF-BD1B-48C4-BCF1-F1D56299A047.png

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Impressive runs again this morning, Severe cold as good as guaranteed next week. Just the detail to iron out now..

Edited by Polar Maritime
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just looked  at the overnight  gfs  just   its now going deep in to fantasy world to 384  hr:cold::cold::shok::yahoo:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=6

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

 

OUTOF THIS  WORLD

 

Edited by tinybill
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3 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

GEFs, by day 6 we have a mean temperature at 850hpa of -14c in the south east. Most areas in minus double figures by then. 

Absolutely crazy that an ensemble mean can be as low as -14 way out at day 6. 

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Just now, mulzy said:

Absolutely crazy that an ensemble mean can be as low as -14 way out at day 6. 

im  just gobsmacked it could be like2012 when  temp were -12 during the day here in the east i should knowi work outside!!

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10 minutes ago, TheBeastFromTheEAST said:

I have to be honest, i was scared to look on here this morning..... looking through my fingers lol... ?

Me too!!

Sensational 00z runs, im starting to believe, after all the years of let downs..

For those worrying if ukmo is too far south check out the ECM 168 12z yesterday, its a pretty superb match and we know what followed on ECM..

Edited by Nick L
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Obviously the detail has still yet to be worked out but my god, what an abundance of snow and severe cold, I reckon there could be well over a foot in some places over the next few weeks, penetrating frosts, ice days, severe wind chill and possible huge snow drifts as the winds aren't too light either, wow, like many here Im nearly speechless, if these words don't make sense you know why, just WOW!!

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Edited by Sparkiee storm
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