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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?

Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:

Thank you!

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Cold - Yes Instability - Yes Prolonged - Yes I just wet myself - Yes!

I quite often agree with your sort of sentiment, as I'm one who opts to look at the most likely solution to fit the signals rather than the preferred one But, equally impartially and with intended

Sorry, I just thought I’d walked into the moans threa.. oh wait. <passes around a big bag of grips> No sooner do we get a cold spell within sight it astonishes me that time and time again some p

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1 minute ago, Nick L said:

I've seen folks on TWO saying that this looks like a dry easterly :rofl:

If you was to mock up the snowiest Easterly you could imagine then the GEM 00z has saved you the job -

feet of snow in England on that run..

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2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

If you was to mock up the snowiest Easterly you could imagine then the GEM 00z has saved you the job -

feet of snow in England on that run..

So many kinks and wobbles in the isobars, oh I am glad I booked the final week of Feb off work. 

The consistency regarding the depth of the cold across all models is remarkable. 

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4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Possibly one of the most beautiful Greenland highs you'll see modelled



These runs are simply sublime,  you would struggle to draw a more perfect Greeny High. 

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Alarm set 15 mins earlier to trawl through models and i’d like to say i’m not disappointed!!!! Deep cold in by t120- t126,  it’s coming down and looking world class, the models just keep giving! 

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So then, this morning the GFS has the bitter cold entering the UK by Sunday 


UKMO is around the same time with the -8C isotherm arriving Sunday morning but the bitter cold is well and truly across the UK by this point below.


GEM, good consensus with the cold air being brought in if anything a little earlier.



The UKMO still looks best with the strongest cold pool linking all the way back to Siberia but both the GFS and GEM keep that easterly going for a good few days before we see the pattern switch towards blocking to our north west with the rememants of the polar vortex starting to drop towards Scandinavia by the 8-10 day period.

GEM/GFS day 10

gemnh-0-240.png?00   gfsnh-0-240.png

Another stunning set of runs this morning so far.

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This is not like anything I've witnessed in my short time model watching nor probably anything my generation have witnessed being 24 in march.. 

I think seeing last night every model we are able to view and trust bringing the cold in by the weekend and watching the ECM come on board was world class. 

Today I think will be the £10m day where if we can get into Wednesday with similar charts, we will be on course for a historical event. We have started the day rather well.. 

These kinds of setups and level of cold are a once in 50 years kind of pattern for our tiny island anyway 

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