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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?


Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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Cold - Yes Instability - Yes Prolonged - Yes I just wet myself - Yes!

I quite often agree with your sort of sentiment, as I'm one who opts to look at the most likely solution to fit the signals rather than the preferred one But, equally impartially and with intended

Sorry, I just thought I’d walked into the moans threa.. oh wait. <passes around a big bag of grips> No sooner do we get a cold spell within sight it astonishes me that time and time again some p

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3 minutes ago, Had Worse said:

Tight Isobar may seem to post like clues in a cryptic crossword but his understanding of the dynamics of the model output is second to non.

 

To be fair if he's a bot he has the cumulative knowledge of the entire forum to play with so he's at an advantage in having a good understanding. 

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And a very happy ending from the 18z with a severe reload from the arctic...another insane run and I'm sure there will be many more to come this week and next week..sweet dreams coldies!:cold-emoji::)

18_384_preciptype.png

18_384_ukthickness850.png

18_384_ukthickness.png

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I laid a square egg when viewing the pub run! Really stung too.

Surely this run can't come off, it's bonkers!

I think the more significant development was the ECM getting on the same page.  Interested in the width of the cold pool at T192, much wider (more room for error) on ECM than GFS:

ECM0-192.GIF?19-0

gfs-1-192.png?18

Edited by Mike Poole
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1 minute ago, Daniel Smith said:

Spot the difference between the mean and the op at 138..

OP

OP.thumb.png.9ff3826a18ea67cd9c38c4bc66c32e79.png

Mean

MEAN.thumb.png.20a90bf09832e1258d837320c159efba.png

Every. Single. Ensemble member goes all in. Every. Single. One.

Panel.thumb.png.943ab4bb6e1b03bf20abf011d7cec118.png

I was just about to tuck into the ensembles.... You've saved me a journey, and wow. Just wow. It really is earth shatteringly beautiful. Thank you.

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There's no doubt about it. Imminent power failures for many and utter chaos will pursue if this 18z does happen. 

Whats even worse, people like myself have never experienced a true proper blizzard not seen since the likes of 87,91,63 or 78! 

I pray for everyone to stay safe and get stocked up with essentials. I'm trying not to get carried away here, but this really might be the big event that's been so long overdue. The even more frightening prospect, is that this thing is actually being upgraded run by run. 

Edited by East_England_Stormchaser91
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3 hours ago, chionomaniac said:

I'm here - been working and have also had to pick myself off the floor after checking the 12Z.

Best ever trop response that we have been able to track following a SSW, oh those of little faith lol.

I did think of buying all the snow shovels and salt in B&Q yesterday and then selling it back to them next weekend....

I have been convinced of an epic cold spell for a long time now (since before the split but my resolute belief was reinforced when I saw the residual Hudson Bay daughter vortex getting taken down).

It may have taken the best part of 10 years but finally we are seeing the makings of an epic spell when you take the strat vortex out of the equation. Even @TEITS may finally have to concede that there is something in this teleconnections Malarkey!

Maybe you should read some of my posts then. I made reference to the SSW only this morning.

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2 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Spot the difference between the mean and the op at 138..

OP

OP.thumb.png.9ff3826a18ea67cd9c38c4bc66c32e79.png

Mean

MEAN.thumb.png.20a90bf09832e1258d837320c159efba.png

Every. Single. Ensemble member goes all in. Every. Single. One.

Panel.thumb.png.943ab4bb6e1b03bf20abf011d7cec118.png

Check it again and make sure there's not THAT one hiding in there somewhere.:rofl:

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2 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

ECM Clusters T144: 2 of the 4 clusters bring in the cold even quicker than the ECM op.

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018021912_144.

What a day.

Phenomenal day!!!

and we see the magic -10c appear on the ens - some members surpass it!! ?

4DDF327C-CC08-4EF7-BBDF-9E7163AAEB53.thumb.gif.2ae1cb02ab5599adcdffefc5daae8676.gif

Fantastic stuff!!

Edited by karlos1983
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3 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

There's no doubt about it. Imminent power failures for many and utter chaos will pursue if this 18z does happen. 

Whats even worse, people like myself have never experienced a true proper blizzard not seen since the likes of 87,91,63 or 78! 

I pray for everyone to stay safe and get stocked up with essentials. I'm trying not to get carried away here, but this really might be the big event that's been so long overdue. The even more frightening prospect, is that this thing is being actually upgraded run by run. 

I'm not sure it can be upgraded. And I'm not sure I want to find out how it can. 

Dear GFS. Keep at this - no downgrades, no upgrades. Just this. Cheers. Netweather Coldies.

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5 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

There's no doubt about it. Imminent power failures for many and utter chaos will pursue if this 18z does happen. 

Whats even worse, people like myself have never experienced a true proper blizzard not seen since the likes of 87,91,63 or 78! 

I pray for everyone to stay safe and get stocked up with essentials. I'm trying not to get carried away here, but this really might be the big event that's been so long overdue. The even more frightening prospect, is that this thing is being actually upgraded run by run. 

Indeed, can we get something that extreme though, I mean its not as though a League One side like Wigan could beat Man City at the moment... or heaven forbid Leicester City winning the premiership title... :D

I think the cold spell would go down in folklore if it transpired and it would highlight how fragile our infrastructure is.

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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2 minutes ago, Johnp said:

He said it’s going to get very cold and snowy.

In what language?

Anyway it doesn't get much better than these charts. There may be some downgrades, but even if they come, the current synoptics are soooo damned good, it will still be a bitterly cold snowy event!

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2 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

I'm not sure it can be upgraded. And I'm not sure I want to find out how it can. 

Dear GFS. Keep at this - no downgrades, no upgrades. Just this. Cheers. Netweather Coldies.

Only upgrade from here would be the whole bank of coldest u uppers moving from eastern siberia directly into europe

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just spoke to my mate from council and blew every chance of this cold coming when I said it's going to get cold. what he told me next has sort of put my mind at rest considering if we are going to have this cold spell. All he said was the high ways lads (gritters) are on double shifts from Saturday. i think this is actually going to happen. he didn't tell me any more because I interrupted his football ?

Cant believe what the GFS 18z has shown it looks great for all of us. ?

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Yep the mean now out to 240 down to -8c so when you see the ENS graph its going to be sub -8c for at least 6 days etc etc

The upgrades are extending well into the 200s now with the formidable Greenland block....

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Just now, Catacol said:

I'm going to try and switch off from this now... but my parting thought tonight is that we are getting further upgrades because the models are still playing catch up with the effects of the SSW. I cant think of any other reason than this... and the reality is that the reversal is forecast to remain in place for a further 9 days. What does this mean? I'm not entirely sure - but maybe this is how the last ice age started. 

Until tomorrow. In the future are people going to talk about 1947, 1963 and 2018?

Yes, especially the second warming over Hudson Bay. That only occurred two days ago so the models are still playing catch up. Record SSW with favourable split, favourable huge MJO pulse, low solar output. Literally perfect for a proper Scandinavian high which is what we're seeing being modelled 

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