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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?


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Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

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https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

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https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

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4 minutes ago, Catacol said:

I think this run may be reflecting MetO thinking - the middle of the week is just one solid blizzard with frontal attacks SW to NE

gfs-0-198.png?18

I'm gobsmacked... and struggling to come to terms with multiple gobsmack moments over the last few days. When on earth are we actually going to see a downgrade???? 

Would that go north catacol or along the channel.

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Cold - Yes Instability - Yes Prolonged - Yes I just wet myself - Yes!

I quite often agree with your sort of sentiment, as I'm one who opts to look at the most likely solution to fit the signals rather than the preferred one But, equally impartially and with intended

Sorry, I just thought I’d walked into the moans threa.. oh wait. <passes around a big bag of grips> No sooner do we get a cold spell within sight it astonishes me that time and time again some p

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2 minutes ago, Catacol said:

I think this run may be reflecting MetO thinking - the middle of the week is just one solid blizzard with frontal attacks SW to NE

gfs-0-198.png?18

I'm gobsmacked... and struggling to come to terms with multiple gobsmack moments over the last few days. When on earth are we actually going to see a downgrade???? 

I'm exhausted, I've never seen anything like this in some 16 years of internet weather watching. I'm off to Amsterdam tomorrow and will be glad of the break to be honest to try and recover a bit!

I think we all have to accept that even what we are seeing here feels unlikely to transpire exactly as depicted by our 'stella' friend the 18z, but if anything even close to this comes off then the mood in here this time next week will be very buoyant.

Anyway, where is @lorenzo - isn't this the pub run you've been waiting for Tony?

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this is unbelievable 

gfs-0-222.png?18

the low actually going to go East along the channel  result Southern blizzard all snow then as it moves off east the cold  uppers flood in again as they are reloaded from the NE for round 2.

gfsnh-1-222.png?18

Could we actually draw a better run than this?

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4 minutes ago, chicken soup said:

 

Would that go north catacol or along the channel.

Fronts likely SW to NE.... though quite what the strong easterly flow would do to them as they move north is well beyond my microscale forecasting knowledge. Instability, pivoting and thundersnow?? Eeek. Someone with that level of skill help me out. I think the simple word from me would be carnage.

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Truly astonishing charts at the moment, recorded an ice day in 2013 on the south coast so being two weeks earlier that isnt going to be a problem again now.

Look North-East, the frozen eagle is about to pounce again..

gfsnh-1-216_lun5.png

Looks like i've timed my return trip from snowy Oslo next wednesday perfectly!

Edited by -uksnow-
spelling :)
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2 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Just in case the 18Z wasn't delivering enough, it throws the perfect channel low into the mix too. You couldn't make up a better run

Every time you see a run and you think you seen the best run possible, another rises to the challenge and smashes out the park. Seriously this IS the best run I've ever seen in my 14 years.

At this point even a big downgrade is still going to lead to one of the biggest cold shots of the 21st century.

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1 minute ago, Catacol said:

Actually - you know what: if this image is being reflected in MOGREPS output then I'd fancy there are going to be some rather concerned folk down in Exeter. That system coming in from the south has undergone some fairly decent strengthening since being spawned off the parent lobe on Saturday

gfsnh-0-108.png?18

and given fairly southerly track on its loop to get here I'd suggest it might be pretty moisture laden. Is the south of England well enough equipped - both in terms of infrastructure and human psychology behind the wheel - to deal with a proper full on blizzard? How significant a snowfall would need to be on the horizon for there to be a red warning?

It's still a way off... and almost certain to change... but these kinds of scenarios could be seriously impactive. I love the snow... but I hope people heed any warnings that may be issued.

Thus- my alarm calls for planner-reorange, sync.

Truly @this stage the parameter alarms ARE NOISING!!

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