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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?


Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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Cold - Yes Instability - Yes Prolonged - Yes I just wet myself - Yes!

I quite often agree with your sort of sentiment, as I'm one who opts to look at the most likely solution to fit the signals rather than the preferred one But, equally impartially and with intended

Sorry, I just thought I’d walked into the moans threa.. oh wait. <passes around a big bag of grips> No sooner do we get a cold spell within sight it astonishes me that time and time again some p

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10 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

McDonald's don't have any chickens to count at the moment:D:whistling:

Anyway, the models are firming up on a freeze next week which could last well into march hopefully!..fingers crossed the 18z sends us to bed with smiles on our faces too.:cold-emoji::)

Isnt it kfc? ? either way there will be downgrades and upgrades. This winter has been fascinating model watching. 

 

We'v done pretty well in Ipswich but it would be nice to get some decent snowfall and a 2012-13 event ?

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GFSOPEU18_138_2.png

Looks like this GFS makes less of a deal out of the low pressure in Eastern Europe, only noticeable difference so far.

It may lead to the cold arriving ever so slightly later but it could mean the cold pool from Russia isn't cut off either.

Nothing to worry about so far!

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Great run on the 18z GFS. Only slight caveat is pressure is a touch higher than I'd like as the GFS really does blow up that upper high. SE should be fine, but once your getting 1035mbs and higher you are starting to limit convective potential.

Synoptics are outstanding however for sure and that really is the only thing I can nitpick on 

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Right, the question is how long until we can break the silence and inform friends/family? I almost let slip today, but held my tongue absolutely convinced I would jinx it. 18z looking fine thus far. A proper Easterly feed, none of this via the med shenanigans.

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At day 6, gem is across the midlands, gfs is just off the east Anglian coast and the euros are around Denmark. That’s the envelope.  The ec spreads are about the same as this gfs op. The 12z gefs were with the gem at the extreme. 

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Just now, Southender said:

Right, the question is how long until we can break the silence and inform friends/family? I almost let slip today, but held my tongue absolutely convinced I would jinx it. 18z looking fine thus far. A proper Easterly feed, none of this via the med shenanigans.

No harm in telling people it will be freezing cold because it will - just don’t mention the s word! 

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