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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?


Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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Cold - Yes Instability - Yes Prolonged - Yes I just wet myself - Yes!

I quite often agree with your sort of sentiment, as I'm one who opts to look at the most likely solution to fit the signals rather than the preferred one But, equally impartially and with intended

Sorry, I just thought I’d walked into the moans threa.. oh wait. <passes around a big bag of grips> No sooner do we get a cold spell within sight it astonishes me that time and time again some p

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A extra day wait but it certainly is worth it. A more extensive cold pool over Europe than the gfs  and it's a direct hit. I'll give it to Wednesday. If it's still there then I expect warnings on the news etc will be issued 

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6 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ECM IS THERE YESSS

E7F1C1E6-7A6D-41FB-9088-B9A5FACB9174.thumb.png.f72e416207320dfe94af5cda3aa29305.png

Now that's a Murr sausage if ever I've seen one! 

This is just fantastic. Best period of model watching during winter I've ever experienced. Even rivalling the other end of the spectrum for when a classic plume is modelled! 

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3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM T192 aligning towards direct hit

ECM0-192.GIF?19-0

Yup that really cold air over Scandinavia has the UK in its sights :D

Great evening of weather model output (if its cold you are after)

 

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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Synoptically the 12z ECM is much better, and by 192hrs its evolving into that Iceland high that was on the 00z,which as it happens would be a stonking evolution providing we still have a great cold pool aloft.

PS, look at the retrograding pattern across the whole N.Hemishpere :0

Should be some epic falls of snow, 60-100cms probably in favoured locations,20-30cms widely in the east. IF these runs are right!

Edited by kold weather
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6 hours ago, carinthian said:

Yes, Raythan, they think at 144t the ECM is to progressive out west ( think they mean a less robust block ) and the operational on the mild side.. They expect a increase in upper height rises to the NE of the British Isles by Sunday  with the upper trough alignment over Central Europe to be further north and west than shown on the ECM, this is based on their own model and human input. We will see if there will be a correction on this evenings ECM run. Also they think the UK uppers are to high at same time. Hope this helps. Its all good stuff. Digging out my thermals for next weekend !

 C

 Re , above post ,Yes, this is a upgrade or correction from ECM compared to midnight run. Heights to the NE much stronger on this run. Much colder upper air advection approahing the British Isles this time next week. Looking good now as all models coming on board. Its now a matter of timing for the arrival of the deepest cold pool . GFS wants to bring later in a bit quicker. UKMO looks solid and robust route to get the full cold in eventually.

C

ECMOPEU12_168_2.png

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2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

ECM much better for the cold ai

 

3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

ECM much better for the cold air

ECM0-192.thumb.GIF.5ff4e78344f2129eb78362b47ae79a87.GIFgiphy.thumb.gif.d302f91aa9f27336bd15afe82817aeee.gif

You know when a run is epic when summer sun is ramping:cold:

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6 hours ago, carinthian said:

They expect a increase in upper height rises to the NE of the British Isles by Sunday  with the upper trough alignment over Central Europe to be further north and west than shown on the ECM, this is based on their own model and human input.

 

My word @carinthian any chance of finding tomorrow euro millions numbers too ?? 

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So who still wants the GFS  12 hrs run to verify! A simply out of this world ECM run so far with the second deep cold pool heading sw.

In the brutal world of models the GFS is dropped and cast aside like yesterdays fish and chips wrapper! :D

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That upper ridge near svaalbard helps take the Canadian vortex in a more organised fashion towards east siberia

Could also see a view of the possible route forward beyond the initial surge of cold in line with the extended eps 

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1 minute ago, carinthian said:

 Re , above post ,Yes, this is a upgrade or correction from ECM compared to midnight run. Heights to the NE much stronger on this run. Much colder upper air advection approahing the British Isles this time next week. Looking good now as all models coming on board. Its now a matter of timing for the arrival of the deepest cold pool . GFS wants to bring later in a bit quicker. UKMO looks solid and robust route to get the full cold in eventually.

C

ECMOPEU12_168_2.png

Spot on this  morning about ec goes to show how important cross model agreement is. Now that we have it:yahoo:

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1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

That upper ridge near svaalbard helps take the Canadian vortex in a more organised fashion towards east siberia

Could also see a view of the possible route forward beyond the initial surge of cold in line with the extended eps 

This 12z ECM is getting pretty close to the holy grail, a 91/87 type easterly shot with sustained northern blocking afterwards. Should see a sub zero two week period if these are close, which for this time of year is impressive!

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