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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?


Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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Cold - Yes Instability - Yes Prolonged - Yes I just wet myself - Yes!

I quite often agree with your sort of sentiment, as I'm one who opts to look at the most likely solution to fit the signals rather than the preferred one But, equally impartially and with intended

Sorry, I just thought I’d walked into the moans threa.. oh wait. <passes around a big bag of grips> No sooner do we get a cold spell within sight it astonishes me that time and time again some p

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21 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

The coldest GFS ensemble ( For east kent ) is -18.8c @T183 & 186... ( this is the 180 chart )

Thats only 1c less than 12 1987....

the max that day was -7c in the SE

FBDD62CA-5AFC-4555-B50B-843555CE8285.thumb.png.268c248f2e0f393af446ba368de6308f.png

 

Take a look at the 12z GFS and the week before the 87 outbreak. SO similar it is unreal!

Anyway the 12z ECM looking good!! A notch down from the 12z GFS/GEM but its still outstanding.

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13 minutes ago, radiohead said:

Listed on Meteociel via the Tableaux GEFS.

That Tableaux GEFS  is really useful, thanks. I wish there were more tabular data sources available for other things. 

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2 minutes ago, danm said:

ECM 168h - cold pool seems further north than the 0z and hitting the UK! 

ECM0-168.GIF?19-0

Yes and cold pool on ecm looks a lot bigger Than the GFS ?

Edited by ICE COLD
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Here's the uppers at 144 and 168....if you toggle between the 2 it looks like a direct UK hit.  192 will hopefully confirm it but could be a nationwide event again

ECM0-144.GIF?19-0 ECM0-168.GIF?19-0

...Oh, and there's -12 uppers across much of the country :whistling::bomb:

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