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Paul

Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?

Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

Message added by Paul

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First impressions since back from work.....

those GEFS are stunning.

nuff said"

(now I can catch up on today's drama)

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And now on BBC One, it’s time for an unmissable ECMenders!

DUFF DUFF DUFF DUFF DUFF DUFF DUFF DUF DUFF DUFF

I am so impressed by the remarkable accuracy of the GFS runs at the moment! I’m just interested to see what sways it! 

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1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

How can you tell that?

Use meteociel GFS ensemble

click on tabeaux then click the UK map to east kent shows you all the ENS temps the ascendent

13BFF0E4-D26F-4E4B-A0A7-CA4B6C86F62D.thumb.png.0462b1d8a1e17d6ca5d478c8bdedaae7.png

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Re GFS look at a LP develop around the Black Sea and move north.  That squeezes and props the HP and helps eject (lOops, nearly wrote something else a bit longer) the deep cold West.  

All I can say is I’ve waited 31 years for Synoptics like these...yes we’ve had some crackers BUT this incoming is what you call an EASTERLY!

Come ECM.....you know you want to

BFTP

 

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Sure has been an incredibly interesting past few days of Model watching, i'm not too worried about the ECM at the minute but still worth keeping an eye on just in case it doesn't become a little bit of a trend, even though its still very very cold on there too. Aside from that another amazing GFS run, GEM and UKMO Doesn't look too shabby at 144. 

I'm also keeping a little eye on Thursday/Friday, I wouldn't be surprised  of a  risk of some light flurries

Got everything crossed

ECM 12z incoming :) 

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This looks good,Atlantic low is miles further south than the 00z.

 

ECMOPEU12_96_1.png

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11 minutes ago, SN0W SN0W SN0W said:

Remember when we had a 25c divergence at day 7, and now we have this

graphe3_1000_319_138___.gif

I haven't seen anything packed in that the tightly since the 80s

During a regular cold spell we would be questioning whether that initial dip down to -5 would be cold enough for a little wintriness thinking that is as cold as it gets where as here that dip is the 'mild' holding pattern before the real cold enters the stage!  :cold:

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1 minute ago, Snowy L said:

This looks good,Atlantic low is miles further south than the 00z.

 

ECMOPEU12_96_1.png

That is a great chart....look at that 1040 arctic HP waiting to eject SW 

 

BFTP

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Pressure-signals looking good.. as the flow looks to make aim..

Some minor blips around base norway/sweden...but not fraught...

And the easterly is sharpening now via ecm...

ECM1-96.gif

ECM4-96.gif

Screenshot_2018-02-19-18-17-21.png

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ECM is better but not quite there with the flow allignment over scandi @96- but at least ita on the move !

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ECM 120hrs

ECH1-120.GIF?19-0

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ECM has cold pool further north.That'll do for me. SOD cluster 1

 

Screenshot_20180219-182355.png

Screenshot_20180219-182408.png

Edited by winterof79
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5 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

T120.....beautiful, the surge is coming  Can’t post charts

 

BFTP

Hope bluearmy is feeling better about  ec much better than 00z high much more to NW cold should follow:)

Edited by snowice
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850 temps at 120hrs on the ECM:

ECM0-120.GIF?19-0

Huge cold pool moving west out of Russia. 

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Comparing todays day 6 to yesterdays day 7

ECM1-144.GIF?19-0   ECM1-168.GIF

The high looks to be a little further north compared to yesterday so hopefully the cold air should hit further north on this run.

This run is pretty close to the UKMO, so it will interesting to see how cold it gets in week 2.

Edited by Captain Shortwave
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2 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

Gets there a bit late but it's there;

 

No chart available for the selected hour. Many charts start at 3 hours ahead, so if you have 0 hours selected try stepping forward or selecting a later hour.

That's 00z

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