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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?


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Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT

    ECM is better but not quite there with the flow allignment over scandi @96- but at least ita on the move !

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    Cold - Yes Instability - Yes Prolonged - Yes I just wet myself - Yes!

    I quite often agree with your sort of sentiment, as I'm one who opts to look at the most likely solution to fit the signals rather than the preferred one But, equally impartially and with intended

    Sorry, I just thought I’d walked into the moans threa.. oh wait. <passes around a big bag of grips> No sooner do we get a cold spell within sight it astonishes me that time and time again some p

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT

    well its good-

    Not quite there but 120 is coming inline..

    77164466-730D-4AB9-9B79-846A05D3D73C.thumb.png.0aab23c990308b82de4938ac7ad57530.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (Central)
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (Central)

    ECM 120hrs

    ECH1-120.GIF?19-0

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    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

    T120.....beautiful, the surge is coming  Can’t post charts

     

    BFTP

    Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl

    ECM has cold pool further north.That'll do for me. SOD cluster 1

     

    Screenshot_20180219-182355.png

    Screenshot_20180219-182408.png

    Edited by winterof79
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    Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
    5 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

    T120.....beautiful, the surge is coming  Can’t post charts

     

    BFTP

    Hope bluearmy is feeling better about  ec much better than 00z high much more to NW cold should follow:)

    Edited by snowice
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    Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (Central)
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (Central)

    850 temps at 120hrs on the ECM:

    ECM0-120.GIF?19-0

    Huge cold pool moving west out of Russia. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    Comparing todays day 6 to yesterdays day 7

    ECM1-144.GIF?19-0   ECM1-168.GIF

    The high looks to be a little further north compared to yesterday so hopefully the cold air should hit further north on this run.

    This run is pretty close to the UKMO, so it will interesting to see how cold it gets in week 2.

    Edited by Captain Shortwave
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    Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
    2 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

    Gets there a bit late but it's there;

     

    No chart available for the selected hour. Many charts start at 3 hours ahead, so if you have 0 hours selected try stepping forward or selecting a later hour.

    That's 00z

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
    2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

    Everyone come out from behind the sofa . We are rolling ?

    IMG_1622.PNG

    Just needed that extra 5mb pumping in

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    Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (Central)
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (Central)

    144 on the ECM. Cold pool about a day behind the GFS but it’s on its way:

    ECM0-144.GIF?19-0

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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)

    Incoming..ec-wakes up...

    And oddly could end up more synopticaly upgraded...than the gfs!!!.

    Classic height rotate and in-draw!

    ECM1-144.gif

    ECM1-144.gif

    Edited by tight isobar
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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
    21 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    The coldest GFS ensemble ( For east kent ) is -18.8c @T183 & 186... ( this is the 180 chart )

    Thats only 1c less than 12 1987....

    the max that day was -7c in the SE

    FBDD62CA-5AFC-4555-B50B-843555CE8285.thumb.png.268c248f2e0f393af446ba368de6308f.png

     

    Take a look at the 12z GFS and the week before the 87 outbreak. SO similar it is unreal!

    Anyway the 12z ECM looking good!! A notch down from the 12z GFS/GEM but its still outstanding.

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    Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

    Comparitively a better run 12z ECM against 0z

    12z

    image.thumb.png.8626b169e9a39c34bab0d40daf4c2ad9.png

    0z

    image.thumb.png.2ffd81a109f8cef9d088e15e21178c96.png

     

    image.png

    Edited by Purga
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    Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent

    Somethings got to give. Pretty much every GFS member is going for 850 temps to dive during Sunday, ECM still has us in the middle of the warm air advection.

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    Posted
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)
    13 minutes ago, radiohead said:

    Listed on Meteociel via the Tableaux GEFS.

    That Tableaux GEFS  is really useful, thanks. I wish there were more tabular data sources available for other things. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

    When you think about a locked in Barlette......

    this chart is epic

    IMG_3356.thumb.PNG.264bc24a19d296465f4351c736c0f20b.PNG

    Theres levels to the love :0 

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    Message added by Paul

    Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

    For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

    For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

    Thank you!

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