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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?


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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing rain heat waves
  • Location: Orpington Kent
    8 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

    A picture paints a thousand words...

    Stark contrast...and trending is steadfast...

    #decline...

    MT8_London_ens.png

    I haven’t been a member on here to long I’ve never seen that  very cold South East England..:cold::cold::cold:

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    Cold - Yes Instability - Yes Prolonged - Yes I just wet myself - Yes!

    I quite often agree with your sort of sentiment, as I'm one who opts to look at the most likely solution to fit the signals rather than the preferred one But, equally impartially and with intended

    Sorry, I just thought I’d walked into the moans threa.. oh wait. <passes around a big bag of grips> No sooner do we get a cold spell within sight it astonishes me that time and time again some p

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    There’s been a fair few ‘crucial’ runs chucked about this winter but this ECM run I think it is crucial for it to climb on aboard with every other model we’d be good to go I’d say. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Oakdale, Poole in Dorset
  • Location: Oakdale, Poole in Dorset
    1 minute ago, abbie123 said:

    I haven’t been a member on here to long I’ve never seen that  very cold South East England..:cold::cold::cold:

    The op is quite a warm outlier after the 1st. Many of the runs keep the cold going much longer. The op has most likely overblown that low and milder air at T200

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    5 minutes ago, terryall said:

    345 hearts pumping away in anticipation.....

    3450 finger nails being chewed nervously..stunning 12z runs so far..hoping the Ecm makes it a full house!:D:cold:..nationwide freeze please Ecm!!:D

    Edited by Frosty.
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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
    Just now, Steve Murr said:

    now look at that clustering at day 10/11/12 - Thats a good grouping indicating the iberian low slides east...

    Cheers steve..

    The inflow could even upgrade here !!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent
    1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

    now look at that clustering at day 10/11/12 - Thats a good grouping indicating the iberian low slides east...

    Yes and its the only cluster there. The other members all go their own way really, but that is quite a tight group staying at -10.

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT

    The coldest GFS ensemble ( For east kent ) is -18.8c @T183 & 186... ( this is the 180 chart )

    Thats only 1c less than 12 1987....

    the max that day was -7c in the SE

    FBDD62CA-5AFC-4555-B50B-843555CE8285.thumb.png.268c248f2e0f393af446ba368de6308f.png

     

    Edited by Steve Murr
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    Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent

    Bit of a westwards shift from yesterdays 12z at 72h

     

    Today                                                   Yesterday

    ECMOPEU12_72_1.pngECMAVGEU12_96_1.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

    The coldest GFS ensemble ( For east kent ) is -18.8c @T183 & 186... ( this is the 180 chart )

    Thats only 1c less than 1987....

    FBDD62CA-5AFC-4555-B50B-843555CE8285.thumb.png.268c248f2e0f393af446ba368de6308f.png

     

    How can you tell that?

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    Posted
  • Location: Wombwell, South Yorkshire (75m / 246ft ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Summer Sunshine / Winter Snow
  • Location: Wombwell, South Yorkshire (75m / 246ft ASL)
    8 minutes ago, Retron said:

    Here's a cropped version of the 12z GEFS for London. These are the coldest ensembles I've ever seen for London, and that's going back to the late 90s. Sadly I didn't know about ensembles in 1997, as I suspect that was the last time we saw such cold values.

     

    temps.gif

    Yes I remember your ensemble watch back in the day Darren except then you used to only measure the number of ensembles hitting a paltry -10!

    A bit tame for this cold spell!  :D

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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

    First impressions since back from work.....

    those GEFS are stunning.

    nuff said"

    (now I can catch up on today's drama)

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    Posted
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy, Hot and Dry, Blizzard Conditions
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy, Hot and Dry, Blizzard Conditions

    And now on BBC One, it’s time for an unmissable ECMenders!

    DUFF DUFF DUFF DUFF DUFF DUFF DUFF DUF DUFF DUFF

    I am so impressed by the remarkable accuracy of the GFS runs at the moment! I’m just interested to see what sways it! 

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
    1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

    How can you tell that?

    Use meteociel GFS ensemble

    click on tabeaux then click the UK map to east kent shows you all the ENS temps the ascendent

    13BFF0E4-D26F-4E4B-A0A7-CA4B6C86F62D.thumb.png.0462b1d8a1e17d6ca5d478c8bdedaae7.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

    Re GFS look at a LP develop around the Black Sea and move north.  That squeezes and props the HP and helps eject (lOops, nearly wrote something else a bit longer) the deep cold West.  

    All I can say is I’ve waited 31 years for Synoptics like these...yes we’ve had some crackers BUT this incoming is what you call an EASTERLY!

    Come ECM.....you know you want to

    BFTP

     

    Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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    Posted
  • Location: Sandown, Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and snow
  • Location: Sandown, Isle of Wight

    Sure has been an incredibly interesting past few days of Model watching, i'm not too worried about the ECM at the minute but still worth keeping an eye on just in case it doesn't become a little bit of a trend, even though its still very very cold on there too. Aside from that another amazing GFS run, GEM and UKMO Doesn't look too shabby at 144. 

    I'm also keeping a little eye on Thursday/Friday, I wouldn't be surprised  of a  risk of some light flurries

    Got everything crossed

    ECM 12z incoming :) 

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    Posted
  • Location: Wombwell, South Yorkshire (75m / 246ft ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Summer Sunshine / Winter Snow
  • Location: Wombwell, South Yorkshire (75m / 246ft ASL)
    11 minutes ago, SN0W SN0W SN0W said:

    Remember when we had a 25c divergence at day 7, and now we have this

    graphe3_1000_319_138___.gif

    I haven't seen anything packed in that the tightly since the 80s

    During a regular cold spell we would be questioning whether that initial dip down to -5 would be cold enough for a little wintriness thinking that is as cold as it gets where as here that dip is the 'mild' holding pattern before the real cold enters the stage!  :cold:

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    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
    1 minute ago, Snowy L said:

    This looks good,Atlantic low is miles further south than the 00z.

     

    ECMOPEU12_96_1.png

    That is a great chart....look at that 1040 arctic HP waiting to eject SW 

     

    BFTP

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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)

    Pressure-signals looking good.. as the flow looks to make aim..

    Some minor blips around base norway/sweden...but not fraught...

    And the easterly is sharpening now via ecm...

    ECM1-96.gif

    ECM4-96.gif

    Screenshot_2018-02-19-18-17-21.png

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    Message added by Paul

    Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

    For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

    For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

    Thank you!

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