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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?


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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)

    Expect also a sharp downward gradient now via all supports CROSSBOARD- for a lengthy spell......

    Upstick in any blips (milder)...

    Will likely further decline...to a notable degree!!!!!

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    Cold - Yes Instability - Yes Prolonged - Yes I just wet myself - Yes!

    I quite often agree with your sort of sentiment, as I'm one who opts to look at the most likely solution to fit the signals rather than the preferred one But, equally impartially and with intended

    Sorry, I just thought I’d walked into the moans threa.. oh wait. <passes around a big bag of grips> No sooner do we get a cold spell within sight it astonishes me that time and time again some p

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    What is also remarkable is the incredible uniformity of the 22 ensemble members at T144. Like soldiers standing in a line. Just tiny differences in the cold pool, but that's it.

    I'm now just a tiny bit more hopeful that the ECM might move at least a bit towards the GFS!

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Spectacular GEFS 12z mean early next week, no exaggeration!!:shok::D

    Wishing my life away..hurry to next week already dammit!!:D:cold:

    21_144_850tmp.png

    21_168_850tmp.png

    21_168_2mtmpmax.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    8 minutes ago, radiohead said:

    It really is incredible to see a GEFS mean chart like this at T180

    gens-21-0-180.png

    Oh my! Never ever seen anything like modelled to think it’s a mean and at day 8 that deserves to be saved! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Wolverhampton
  • Location: Wolverhampton

    Currently locally, it's looking very cold, yes, but in terms of snowfall very little, but i know it is still 5 days or so away, whether closer to the date it hits our shores precipitation will become more accurate, time will tell.

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    Posted
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level

    Given consistency between the GFS/UKMO this afternoon and the ECM sitting out of kilter within it's own ensemble suite I'd be pretty surprised if it doesn't backtrack this evening or at the very latest tomorrow morning. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.

    All of the 12zs look excellent, as far as I can see. Just need the ECM to nudge the high further north. Even then it won't be nailed on but the chances will surely be very high.

    Also, looking at precipitation in detail at this range is pointless. It would take a minor miracle though for any of the afternoon runs so far to be dry.

    Edited by MattStoke
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    I looked through through the ensembles, couldn't find a single one that didn't usher in frigid air, so for balance this is what we had last year...

    archives-2017-2-21-12-0.png

    Just to put into perspective how incredible these charts are

    Edited by SN0W SN0W SN0W
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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    Looking at the gefs spreads, we can see the earliest arrival of the deep cold T132 and the smallest spread on it being here T162

    i have no real worries about the easterly arriving - it’s simply whether we can get the upper height instability to promote widespread snowfall and how strong the flow will be if we are struggling a bit for this. These very low uppers will be generally wasted without that instability. 

    As far as the longer term on the gefs - remember that they are unlikely to catch the next downwelling wave which should be coming into view by the back end of this week on the far off fi charts. 

    Would be nice to get an ec op which jumped towards the gefs mean 

    could also do with more vertical WAA around Iceland to take the pressure off the scriceland upper ridge, allowing it to gain a bit more  latitude 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)

    MT8_London_ens.png

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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
    17 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

    Expect also a sharp downward gradient now via all supports CROSSBOARD- for a lengthy spell......

    Upstick in any blips (milder)...

    Will likely further decline...to a notable degree!!!!!

    A picture paints a thousand words...

    Stark contrast...and trending is steadfast...

    #decline...

    MT8_London_ens.png

    Edited by tight isobar
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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    Having seen the 'terrible' ECM from this morning, its still a pretty outstanding chart, in 98% of occasions that would be an unreal run, after all we still see large -10C chunks across the country. The south still gets smashed as pressure is still low enough and the depth of cold good enough. 

    The 12z GFS however is pretty outlandish, basically its a reduex of 87 in terms of the synoptics of the pattern. Not as cold but very similar pattern.

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    So what to expect from the ECM tonight? It normally follows one of the clusters from the previous run. Here's what it gave us (T204)

    ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018021900_204.

    This morning's op is cluster 3

    If it follows cluster 2 or 4, it has moved towards the GFS.

    If it follows cluster 1, we get a very cold high pressure with the cold pool missing (gulp!)

    Good luck everyone!

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    2 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

    So what to expect from the ECM tonight? It normally follows one of the clusters from the previous run. Here's what it gave us (T204)

    ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018021900_204.

    This morning's op is cluster 3

    If it follows cluster 2 or 4, it has moved towards the GFS.

    If it follows cluster 1, we get a very cold high pressure with the cold pool missing (gulp!)

    Good luck everyone!

    That’s ok then - it’s not like cluster 1 is the largest ........

    tighten those seat belts !!

    Edited by bluearmy
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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)

    Micro dynamics-i will scrutinise,.

    12zecm..

    For both point of purpose..and that fact this is no normal in-shot of cold incursion-and northern hemisphercaly, quite crazy..

    12z rolling!!!

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    Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
    3 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

    Micro dynamics-i will scrutinise,.

    12zecm..

    For both point of purpose..and that fact this is no normal in-shot of cold incursion-and northern hemisphercaly, quite crazy..

    12z rolling!!!

    If ecm has a more robust high at 72 hours and is not as flat to the north west then it should be a good run!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Leysdown, Kent
  • Location: Leysdown, Kent

    Here's a cropped version of the 12z GEFS for London. These are the coldest ensembles I've ever seen for London, and that's going back to the late 90s. Sadly I didn't know about ensembles in 1997, as I suspect that was the last time we saw such cold values.

     

    temps.gif

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    Message added by Paul

    Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

    For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

    For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

    Thank you!

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