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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?


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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Stunning GEFS 6z mean next week with bitterly cold Easterly winds on many of the perturbations!...I'm thinking widespread sub zero days with high wind chill and snow, especially across the east and south with penetrating frosts sounds realistic after this week.:cold::)

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    Cold - Yes Instability - Yes Prolonged - Yes I just wet myself - Yes!

    I quite often agree with your sort of sentiment, as I'm one who opts to look at the most likely solution to fit the signals rather than the preferred one But, equally impartially and with intended

    Sorry, I just thought I’d walked into the moans threa.. oh wait. <passes around a big bag of grips> No sooner do we get a cold spell within sight it astonishes me that time and time again some p

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    Posted
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter cold,snow and frost. Summer hot and thundery
  • Location: redcar,cleveland

    The icon is about to redeem it's self much better 12z cold pool marching west at 138 hrs

    Screenshot_20180219-154857.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Grays, Thurrock
  • Location: Grays, Thurrock
    8 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    brave call at T42 !

    I have been noticing on a lot of runs all models since the SSW we are seeing change within the 48hr timeframe of vortex being less strong and slight movement West run on run look at how differences  very early lead to the 108hr compared to 114hr last run the Low to West of Iceland is slightly further west and tilt is much more neutral.

    I am not taking any of the output in Mid range at face valve as if we keep getting these changes in 48hr time frame in 4/5 runs we could possibly see that low  negatively tilted with a lot more energy going under the block.

    iconnh-0-108.png?19-12

    iconnh-0-114.png?19-06

     

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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)

    Gfs like a dog with a bone via its evolutions.

    And if anything becoming more solid in format...

    Yet another stonker rolling out...one would think...

    gfs-1-90.png

    Edited by tight isobar
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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
    Just now, Isabellesnanny said:

    Genuine question here (forgive me a total novice) how do the how temperatures translate into what we would see on the ground temperature wise

    Thanks

    The 2m temps give a rough idea

    This

    icon-1-168.thumb.png.602db0bc144fdfc0781aef9dfefc3010.png

    Gives 2m temps around 0c for many

    icon-9-168.thumb.png.38d1fd65bf963e0bab224f5975a8ddde.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

    ICON/GFS/UKMO at +96, nice!!!! they are playing friendly with each other 

    iconnh-0-96.png?19-12gfsnh-0-96.png?12Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

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    Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Location: Hull
    3 minutes ago, Isabellesnanny said:

    Genuine question here (forgive me a total novice) how do the hpa temperatures translate into what we would see on the ground temperature wise

    Thanks

    This is a good beginners guide to what to look for in the models as well - https://ukweather.wordpress.com/weather-guides/basic-snow-forecasting-guide/

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
    3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    Ikon is very different by day 8 to its 00z run. - that makes me nervous !

    Fear not Blue.Surely we will hit the jackpot at some stage

    iconnh-0-180.png?19-12

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

    Yup so far GEM and ICON have improved with the high a little further North and West.

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    Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

    UW144-21.GIF?19-06 UW120-21.GIF?19-16  GFS  gfs-0-108.png?12

    Well, UKMO for day 5 just changed the angle of the flow on the W flank of the blocking high quite a bit and closer to GFS in that respect. Cold pool position similar too.

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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)

    Gfs @108

    Gem @126..

    Wesrwards-progression..

    gfs-0-108.png

    gem-0-126.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (Central)
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (Central)

    UKMO 120h:

    UW120-21.GIF?19-16

     

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

    nervous UKMO, dont want Spain pinching our cold at 144 please

    Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

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    Posted
  • Location: Grays, Thurrock
  • Location: Grays, Thurrock
    1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

    Ikon is very different by day 8 to its 00z run. - that makes me nervous !

    yep all the models from one run to the next will be different its very early changes within the 20hr-48hr timeframe the models not seeing just how quick the vortex is weakening. causing big changes further down the line

    the below Icon 12Z is brilliant but going with the trend of the vortex being weaker I am going to make a very bold claim that we aint seen the best charts yet I think come t+0 that high may be a couple of hundred miles further West with it forcing more energy under ending up with a tighter pressure gradient and a direct hit of the coldest uppers

     

    iconnh-0-180.png?19-12

    iconnh-1-180.png?19-12

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    Message added by Paul

    Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

    For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

    For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

    Thank you!

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