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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?


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Just get me to 144, then I know the cold will be locked in for 5 to 7 days guaranteed (no matter what GFS currently shows in FI) with ice days and snow just about anywhere and everywhere over that period. 

gfsnh-0-144.png?18

Edited by Mucka
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Cold - Yes Instability - Yes Prolonged - Yes I just wet myself - Yes!

I quite often agree with your sort of sentiment, as I'm one who opts to look at the most likely solution to fit the signals rather than the preferred one But, equally impartially and with intended

Sorry, I just thought I’d walked into the moans threa.. oh wait. <passes around a big bag of grips> No sooner do we get a cold spell within sight it astonishes me that time and time again some p

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2 minutes ago, radiohead said:

Milder air pushing into the far south, but with it comes the prospect of a major snow event for those still hanging on to the very cold air as fronts push up against it.

gfs-1-228.png?18

Snow north of the m4 anyone... 

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OK, whilst it looks like this run is petering out, the most important part of the run is 0-144 or 168 max.  Based on those timeframes, we could hardly be in a better position.  Remember, anything beyond 168, be it good or bad, is just for fun only.

Tonight's 168 and we're back to a nationwide event.  Fingers crossed for more tomorrow.

gfsnh-0-168.png?18   gfsnh-1-168.png?18

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4 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

How old are you? 

He is Dr who:D

anyway back to the here and now,the 18z again showing the pv lifting out of Canada to siberia and in our part of the world it is just another variation of the theme but the broadscale/macroscale is the same.

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Its looks perfect at 168 for epic spell and does deliver for a  few days but then starts to go wrong at 198, with the low to west of Spain phasing with the short wave over Poland,

wouldn't the low to West of Spain at 162 more likely send some energy under the block in to the Med??

gfsnh-0-162.png?18

gfsnh-0-192.png?18

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GFS is best for deep cold and snow thanks to the high being further north, which allows a stronger easterly with lower heights. However, it does mean the Atlantic gets through eventually.

ECM is best for a long cold spell thanks to the high being further south and then retrogressing to Greenland. However, it does mean a drier easterly with the deepest cold to our south.

A half way house is often a good bet and would be the best of both worlds.

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Just now, MattStoke said:

GFS is best for deep cold and snow thanks to the high being further north, which allows a stronger easterly with lower heights. However, it does mean the Atlantic gets through eventually.

 

ECM is best for a long cold spell thanks to the high being further south and then retrogressing to Greenland. However, it does mean a drier easterly with the deepest cold to our south.

A half way house is often a good bet and would be the best of both worlds.

 

A half way house would be perfect.

A half way house being the high  being a lit bit further south than the GFS but further north than the ECM then?

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I'm not getting the high is too far North comments at all.

It is over Iceland, I guess that means a Greenland high is useless for cold then?

There are many ways we can have the high at that latitude and still maintain the cold into FI and I will be amazed if some of those do not pop up in the ensembles as evidence of this.

And at what point is it too high lat? When it is dragging in -15 uppers and giving widespread snow for a few days or in deep FI when there is a breakdown?

 

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Well, tonights GFS's run and we (as in i), looks set for 4 possibly 5 days of cold and/or potential snowfall, and then it gets broken down at little too easily and quickly from the south. Any one else thinks this, but it is still 5 or 6 days away, so any possibilties are still on the table. 

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1 minute ago, Mucka said:

I'm not getting the high is too far North comments at all.

It is over Iceland, I guess that means a Greenland high is useless for cold then?

There are many ways we can have the high at that latitude and still maintain the cold into FI and I will be amazed if some of those do not pop up in the ensembles as evidence of this.

And at what point is it too high lat? When it is dragging in -15 uppers and giving widespread snow for a few days or in deep FI when there is a breakdown?

 

When the high is dragging in the -15 uppers, of course. The isobars are not close enough together because the high is too far north - it's a disgrace really!

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1 minute ago, inghams85 said:

What chart over the last few days including the retrogression would people suggest is the perfect half way house? Yesterdays 18zgfs?

Take the ECM and shunt it further north , that’s the perfect outcome .

Synoptically excellent  with more cold to head sw from Scandi after day ten.

 

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Don't forget that the second blow on the remnants of the split strat. vortex is currently taking place. Anything beyound T144 is therefore soo uncertain!

It will take some time again before the models get a hold on this...... but that is what makes model-watching great!

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5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Take the ECM and shunt it further north , that’s the perfect outcome .

Synoptically excellent  with more cold to head sw from Scandi after day ten.

 

Agreed! A reload from the North East! Would be incredible! It's normally a half way house but how often is the half way house the perfect scenario. Were in such a strong position 

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