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Paul

Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?

Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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This is just bloody incredible. You think you have seen it all and then an even more epic run comes out . The uk would be crippled 😁. I can see the BBC headlines now . The top story this evening, Britain in the big freeze 😜

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13 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

What's better than a cold bringing Scandi 1065 High?

A reloading cold bringing Scandi high. That's what!

 

GFSOPEU06_240_2-2.thumb.png.30de3ae7852576e9bb55efb67abb498e.png

Is that a record breaking high on 06z?

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Just now, winterof79 said:

I think we may just have consensus....its like the Christmas day football game on the German battlefield.:cold:  

Ah yes the one where the ecm and the gfs meet up in snowmansland

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Please no repeat of "that ECM" a few years ago when everything was a dead cert, even down to t48 and then... well we know what. Can remember even the met, bbc etc were certain. Is this set up Any different? Are we in a better position? Or could it all go horribly wrong again?

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Sometimes the models throw out the odd stella run.the 6z gfs is noteworthy and by new members should be synced and bookmarked on the nhp just alone.you just dont see that kind of vortex destruction and huge extensive blocking from the far north southwards .Still to varify but incredible to see

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Just now, John Badrick said:

Please no repeat of "that ECM" a few years ago when everything was a dead cert, even down to t48 and then... well we know what. Can remember even the met, bbc etc were certain. Is this set up Any different? Are we in a better position? Or could it all go horribly wrong again?

Of course it can still go wrong, but the chance of brutal cold hitting in the 6-9 day period is now better than evens.

We have all been burnt many times before and have the scars to show for it so I am still nervy.

So, please no popping of champagne corks yet!

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I know this is a tweet but what other models are they looking at which shows what they speaking about

8CD979B4-7C87-45DF-A551-CB8462BBD224.jpeg

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1 minute ago, fromey said:

I know this is a tweet but what other models are they looking at which shows what they speaking about

8CD979B4-7C87-45DF-A551-CB8462BBD224.jpeg

i guess they are telling people not to get to excited because things could always go wrong :( 

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16 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

06z snow depth at D10 around 3inches in parts of the east substantially more for NE Scotland

240-780UK.thumb.GIF.f5fcfa20e2d6079977d5b79553701c80.GIF

Surely the S.E contungent would have more than 1mm!! In such a set up ?

Especially wth the low sitting just S.E of us 

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Thought hammonds a cold ramper ,obviously not then,anyway many people will be digging themselves out of their homes if this gfs run anywhere near verifies!

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1 minute ago, lorenzo said:

Couple of strat charts to hopefully provide some comfort, certainly not the same arena as the previously failed easterly.

Atlantic just cannot get thru here, the stratospheric ridging is immense and you can also see the canadian lobe pegged back and degraded via further warming aided by wave breaking. Result being - support for the Scandi ridge and an open door to Greenland also.

These are not lala land plots either at 168..no surprise to see the NAO continually crashing..

ecmwf100f168.thumb.gif.abacfcefa3ddf63777d9e0259acdab4e.gifecmwfpv475f192.thumb.gif.1b5f4196a58e4de7f02dc876fdca56c4.gifecmwf150f168.thumb.gif.17358a40aea55171a0af4934f62c406a.gif

 

Absolutely. Previously failed easterlys are victims of atlantic charge. There is no chance of this under the current pattern. My only concern would be watching the undercut pass through the Massif.....

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6 minutes ago, fromey said:

I know this is a tweet but what other models are they looking at which shows what they speaking about

8CD979B4-7C87-45DF-A551-CB8462BBD224.jpeg

I think he is refering to the ECMWF not having the cold/snow over the UK by next weekend

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1 minute ago, Froze were the Days said:

Notice the 06z and 18z charts bring the outlandish runs, shame it's not the 0z or 12z...bet the 12z is not as good. Still hoping though!

Does the EC 00z this morning not count then?

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27 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

06z snow depth at D10 around 3inches in parts of the east substantially more for NE Scotland

240-780UK.thumb.GIF.f5fcfa20e2d6079977d5b79553701c80.GIF

Day 10 on the south east coast peninsula where I live I have a total of no cms!! - going by that 06z run that won't be the case, these snowfall charts always make me laugh :)

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GFS 06oz agrees with the ecm in keeping the cold air over us. Surprisingly good agreement at T240 as well.

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9 minutes ago, Jo Farrow said:

I think he is refering to the ECMWF not having the cold/snow over the UK by next weekend

Thanks jo

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14 minutes ago, Leon1 said:

i guess they are telling people not to get to excited because things could always go wrong :( 

As I’ve been saying for a while. Lots of possibilities. The trend looks good but there’s real possibilities things change a little and a lot changes if that makes sense. 

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