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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?


Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

The thing I like about both the ECM 12 hrs and GFS 18 hrs run is the core of height rises is to the north then edges to the ne.

So the UK isn’t at the flabby end of the block as the cold pool advances .

Think of the core heights as the shepherd and his dog and the deep cold the flock of sheep.

If you have that strong block in a good position  it acts to force the sheep into line!

I must stop with these bizarre analogies! :D

 

No, don't stop! Lol

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Cold - Yes Instability - Yes Prolonged - Yes I just wet myself - Yes!

I quite often agree with your sort of sentiment, as I'm one who opts to look at the most likely solution to fit the signals rather than the preferred one But, equally impartially and with intended

Sorry, I just thought I’d walked into the moans threa.. oh wait. <passes around a big bag of grips> No sooner do we get a cold spell within sight it astonishes me that time and time again some p

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5 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

OK, the short ensembles are in and predictably the Op is just about a cold outlier.  Interestingly, the mean actually rises at days 7-8, which does go to show that nothing is nailed down quite yet.  However, the GEFS really haven't performed at all well over the last couple of weeks, so I wouldn't fret too much, just food for thought!

Diagramme GEFS

Very similar to the ECM ensembles. Incredible 25C spread by D7!!! A super thin line between mild southerlies and Siberian easterlies. I'll be shocked if we don't see at least one of the milder runs in the ops tomorrow. Probably worth bracing yourselves for it!

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1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

Very similar to the ECM ensembles. Incredible 25C spread by D7!!! A super thin line between mild southerlies and Siberian easterlies. I'll be shocked if we don't see at least one of the milder runs in the ops tomorrow. Probably worth bracing yourselves for it!

I think you have to go with the trends of today and as a result would be surprised to see a mild run in the morning. 

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3 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Very similar to the ECM ensembles. Incredible 25C spread by D7!!! A super thin line between mild southerlies and Siberian easterlies. I'll be shocked if we don't see at least one of the milder runs in the ops tomorrow. Probably worth bracing yourselves for it!

I said as much earlier. These nirvana charts will most probably downgrade somewhat. Let's face it, they can't get any better!

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1 minute ago, Lampostwatcher said:

them 3 you mention 78/79 , 81 , 87 

is the reason us 40 + year olds have been hooked on the white stuff for years 

 

1987 is the still the champ of all easterlies in my opinion and left a lasting impression. The charts currently being modelled are as close to those synoptics as one could wish to see...Still a way to go before we can get too excited, but if ever we had a chance of seeing something similar to that event, albeit late in the season, then this is surely it.....The latest fax chart I posted above is positive in that regard, as the building blocks are clearly being laid in a relatively reliable timeframe, and with met forecasters input  ....exciting times for sure

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31 minutes ago, Catacol said:

...<snip> There is a serious chance that Feb/March 2018 will end up in weather folklore.

Great checklist post and summary for 'mere mortals' like myself on this forum Mr Catacol - All things in place for an interesting flight

Thank you:friends:

time to sit back and enjoy the ride (-:

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33 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

I said as much earlier. These nirvana charts will most probably downgrade somewhat. Let's face it, they can't get any better!

It's like when you go on holiday... i

You've done all the research - climate weather anomalies, sea temps, model deconstruction, weight of baggage etc and then...

Better to have arrived expecting the worst than what you get. - it's all up for grabs

This current scenario of Stratospheric warming so late in the year (winterfell) will honour a few after dinner weather moments for a while - We hoped it was going to snow, then we got a heat wave - who'd da thought it eh? 

 

mods this was model related 

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3 minutes ago, Raythan said:

Hope the snow gets in at day 6/7 @Catacol Iv never seen a Calcutta cup played with an orange ball ! Didn’t follow this crazy hobby in 2010 , but I quite imagine this was what it was like ! 

Ooh.. Murrayfield in the snow. Hmm - actually I suspect it will be a bit early for the east coast of Scotland to get in on the act come next weekend - influence of the high pressure will be strongest over Scotland early on...but who knows.... :-) 

 

Yes - 2010 was good, but we didnt have a vortex torn to shreds with a pattern that was apt to retrogress.. This time around eventually we will end up with a west based -NAO and that will probably bring the milder air back in.... but hopefully not for a good while yet..

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4 minutes ago, Raythan said:

Hope the snow gets in at day 6/7 @Catacol Iv never seen a Calcutta cup played with an orange ball ! Didn’t follow this crazy hobby in 2010 , but I quite imagine this was what it was like ! 

Actually, no.  2010 was a fantastic spell of weather of that there is no doubt.  But the options on the table now are a once in a 25 to 40 year event. We may be just 7-9 days away from something we'll be talking about for years and years to come.  Maybe 2018 will be the new 'benchmark'? 

TIme, as always, will tell.  Until the morning, as Catacol stated, let's not overreact to a somewhat inevitable downgrade...

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Despite being oop narth, it takes a lot to get snow down to low lying York. Used to live in Hull for three years (I did like living there I promise) and it felt practically impossible to see lying snow there. Those across the east should be licking their lips this evening with charts like this!

Modele GFS - Carte prévisions

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1 minute ago, The Eagle said:

NAVGEM shows the scenario that has occurred year after year. Cold to Athens...

navgem-0-180.png?18-00

Granted not the best model but an example of the absolute myriad of ways this can go belly up.

That looks like a clear product of over emphasis of the canadian vortex combined with underestimate of retrograde pattern over Eurasia. Even the Navgem sees this 2 days before your 180h image

navgem-0-144.png?18-00

and given overall pattern drivers post 180h the only path forward is an easterly once again.

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6 minutes ago, Catacol said:

but we didnt have a vortex torn to shreds with a pattern that was apt to retrogress.

If we get something anywhere near historical out this then there will be some amount of data to analyze after ! And keeping balance , if it goes the way of the pear , the same as to why it did 

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5 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

let's not overreact to a somewhat inevitable downgrade..

Given the ens spread of both the ECM + GFS this is kind of *inevitable* ,got to put caveats in as we just don’t know , I mean could we even get upgrades ? I don’t even know what an upgrade would look like after today’s output ,this SSW has been incredible from all manner of perspective , from when it was first modeled to then actually verification , to now watching models ‘deal’ with its trop response , be interesting to see in the afternmath which model handled it best 

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