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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?


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Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

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I don't often agree with the "bin it" mentality but, bin it.

Mess.thumb.png.7bbc405727904f115d4418af3cdbbfa2.png

This is a complete and utter mess of a chart. The low in earlier frames would not just sit there smiling at the block without even a hint of disruption. I agree with Steve, almost 0 chance of something like this verifying.

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Cold - Yes Instability - Yes Prolonged - Yes I just wet myself - Yes!

I quite often agree with your sort of sentiment, as I'm one who opts to look at the most likely solution to fit the signals rather than the preferred one But, equally impartially and with intended

Sorry, I just thought I’d walked into the moans threa.. oh wait. <passes around a big bag of grips> No sooner do we get a cold spell within sight it astonishes me that time and time again some p

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I'm with BA sometimes when a SSW is too extreme and -NAO so strong this happens. If it was to happen it's going to be with these synpoptics. Just another variation but shows what may go wrong. Sometimes blocking is too blocky 

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15 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

That's gotta be the longest sausage high pressure I've ever seen ?

IMG_1460.PNG

 

It's not what you've got but where you stick it that's important....lol

as no doubt already posted, the 18z gfs looks odd, a very convoluted set of charts post T180.....I can't really think of a meteorological phrase for it so I'll use one of my own...'Bloody mental'...lol

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If this chart verifies I will eat my own trousers between two slices of bread.  

gfsnh-0-324.png?18

This model volatility should really not be a surprise to anyone given the chaos going on up in the strat at the moment. The mini meltdown on here earlier was so odd on so many levels, if charts showing mild cause you to 'throw the toys', probably best find another hobby!

I will make a prediction that tomorrows output will result in equally bonkers synoptics on show. Enjoy the ride, think about what the models were chucking out last year.

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Just now, ajpoolshark said:

It's not what you've got but where you stick it that's important....lol

as no doubt already posted, the 18z gfs looks odd, a very convoluted set of charts post T180.....I can't really think of a meteorological phrase for it so I'll use one of my own...'Bloody mental'...lol

Well we no in 6 hours it will look completely different. There will be a block but not a thin saussage block like that . Hopefully a big thick sausage block but further west and curved around to Scandinavia. ?

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7 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

I don't often agree with the "bin it" mentality but, bin it.

Mess.thumb.png.7bbc405727904f115d4418af3cdbbfa2.png

This is a complete and utter mess of a chart. The low in earlier frames would not just sit there smiling at the block without even a hint of disruption. I agree with Steve, almost 0 chance of something like this verifying.

Yeah a really bizarre run that one, the UK looks like its going to get some cold north-easterlies and then a high over Spain inflates out of nowhere leading to so strange movements with the Azores low. Can't rule anything out but a very odd run.

Notice it goes downhill immediately after it hits low-res (T240....). Getting the Greenland high building on an op run is a positive at least.

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3 minutes ago, Glenn Redwood said:

Looking at the charts to the I don’t think you can trust them with such a strong SSW creating model mayhem. Stick with the trusted posters on here.  I agree if you aren’t going to add to he debate just don’t post. Keep it constructive.

You're contradicting yourself massively between those three sentences. Follow your own advice. 

That GFS run has downed ten vodkas and cokes, took a couple of e's, had a joint and woke up still in la la land, so tried to cure it with half of bottle of whisky, then decided it would turn up for work anyway... absolutely bloody useless for anything but wiping your backside with. 

Edited by Deep Snow please
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19 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Almost zero? it’s not impossible though with a neg NAO as big as predicted. I’d give it 10/15% chance. 

Which in UK terms is a worry! If it can go wrong it usually finds a way :nonono:

Must say gfs looks a complete mess in the latter stages, it’s come up with the most complex of scenarios possible 

6C3AAB3D-8AAA-44AD-A36B-32C6769C470A.thumb.png.8d815b8b12a6ccc8827c31a867014a75.png

Pub run classic of sorts!

 

Edited by karlos1983
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 Fascinating, I have on my thouhgts as posted other day main/coldest thrust early March with a ‘watch’ for deep depression approaching UK on southerly track end of Feb that ‘may’  be the main cold propellant.  

Something to keep an eye on re developments.....18z interesting.

Coukd be much cleaner and much colder earlier....great watching

 BFTP

 

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Absolutely fascinating set of ensembles, a lot of members bring deep cold into eastern/central Europe. A fair few bring some real cold our way, including the control run which is bitterly cold.

GFSC00EU18_312_2.png

A small number also bring -15C uppers to a large swathe of the UK... P16 would bring a netweather server meltdown

GFSP16EU18_288_2.png

Quite a few low pressure systems cross the UK in P16.

Some get the cold in earlier but it depends on how quickly the UK high shifts north. Many develop huge Greenland highs but some others follow the op in developing a really deep Azores low bringing in a huge swathe of mild air.

Anyway some pretty extreme patterns showing up. Seems to be February 22nd when most cold runs start bring in the really cold air... just wish it could shift a bit closer...

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9 minutes ago, ScottishSnowStorm said:

Don't know if it is a site issue or something but the GFS 18z op looks way off compared to the rest for central belt here in scotland 

Screenshot_20180214-002247.thumb.png.020f41da256510750913fcbcb0b5399b.png

Central Scotland I got this. EDIT, thats the 12z, sorry. Something was wrong with the ensembles coming out tonight, took for ever so I would ignore that one, looks wrong.

graphe_ens3.gif

Edited by snowray
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GFS control knows what’s up folks :D... the potential for a notable cold spell has been there for weeks. And it’s within reach IMO very interesting time, hang on in there. 

tempresult_xdi6.giftempresult_vsr4.gif

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UKMO 144 - anyone got a map? We'll need it for the winding route to cold from there.

UN144-21.GIF

GFS somewhat better than that but still misses the first opportunity to throw a ridge pole-ward. Second attempt lining up. 

gfsnh-0-144.png

Edit

Similar evolution to the 18z only a bit quicker, can't complain. Let's see if it has another fit as we head into FI or it gives us what the synoptic suggests.

gfsnh-0-168.png

Edited by Mucka
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Same theme as last run but behaviour of the Atlantic low somewhat more believable than the 18z

gfsnh-0-234.pnggfsnh-0-288.pnggfsnh-1-276.png

I'm guessing cold lovers could put up with blizzards?

In actuality I expect the low would disrupt even more with less chance of milder Atlantic attempting to push North - all pie in the sky at these ranges though.

Edited by Mucka
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Judging by the plethora of possible solutions the ensembles are still playing with by 144 there is still some way to go before nailing down the pattern change.

What looks to be certain is that high pressure will build through the UK and up toward Scandi in a few days.

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Even by next Tuesday there are several ENS giving us potential snow from the east, the mean is way better than the Op. Could be an even better suite than the last one. 

A9ABADDC-7032-4779-8B3C-60C66530054A.png

Its next Friday when the really cold comes in on most ENS though.

Edited by Ali1977
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