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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?

Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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48 minutes ago, london-snow said:

Yes facts and science and that where the met comes into its own they have so much more data available to them and have highly paid professionals in the meteorology field and that’s why I feel upbeat about the outlook, until they change their wording then I’m a believer.

Indeed, and I have the highest regard for the met. But the point I was making in response to the earlier post still stands. If the Met are on board then I too remain happy!

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Good grief what is going on!

The differences are stark and just as the UKMO has a big upgrade the ECM turns into a complete horror show.

FI is at T96 hrs, look upstream for your belwether. The shortwave low exiting the ne USA.

The colder outputs develop that and it phases for a time with the troughing over Greenland .

This downstream impacts the low near Iceland.

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Just now, nick sussex said:

Good grief what is going on!

The differences are stark and just as the UKMO has a big upgrade the ECM turns into a complete horror show.

FI is at T96 hrs, look upstream for your belwether. The shortwave low exiting the ne USA.

The colder outputs develop that and it phases for a time with the troughing over Greenland .

This downstream impacts the low near Iceland.

Nick what do the USA weather service say about that shortwave. Any good news from there

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UKMO going with the Exeter update of yesterday? Things are set from T+96. 

6238BE0C-E2CD-46AE-BA1B-DB9EBF9555D4.thumb.gif.a814c9a8fabf5ff80ab3e8ef87e5824e.gif

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4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Good grief what is going on!

The differences are stark and just as the UKMO has a big upgrade the ECM turns into a complete horror show.

FI is at T96 hrs, look upstream for your belwether. The shortwave low exiting the ne USA.

The colder outputs develop that and it phases for a time with the troughing over Greenland .

This downstream impacts the low near Iceland.

You would imagine that ecm could handle that shortwave at 96 exiting the USA can somebody unplug it please!just once can we have agreement :closedeyes:

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Only viewed what's been posted but from what I can gather it's Exeter's general cold lookout, UKMO, ICON, GEM, NAVGEM, GEFS and a few others? vs GFS OP & ECM

Quite happy then as it stands. When an Easterly is predicted I am far happier with the UKMO on board over the others, when this isn't the case i'd be more concerned.

Plenty to be positive about this morning.

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2 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

UKMO going with the Exeter update of yesterday? Things are set from T+96. 

6238BE0C-E2CD-46AE-BA1B-DB9EBF9555D4.thumb.gif.a814c9a8fabf5ff80ab3e8ef87e5824e.gif

If I had to pick a model you want on side for the quick Easterly, it has to be the UKMO, every time without question. 

 

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5 minutes ago, Tom Jarvis said:

Nick what do the USA weather service say about that shortwave. Any good news from there

Looking at the Maine state forecast as it’s the area thats most effected by the track.

They highlight still a lot of uncertainty with that. This has to be resolved by the end of the day given the timeframes involved.

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3 minutes ago, Gustywind said:

If I had to pick a model you want on side for the quick Easterly, it has to be the UKMO, every time without question. 

 

I agree GEFS are also significantly better than the 18z things look better this morning I’d say. GFS op a mild outlier from the 23rd for most of the run, it gives greater optimism that UKMO is interested in ‘lesser’ models evolution.

4EC0FD27-95B7-45E2-A524-08AB314F613A.thumb.gif.34dd4c4bfce2d6409d92bd3c1f4f43a0.gif

 

Edited by Daniel*
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ICON/UKMO vs GFS/ECM.

ICON & the UKMO drop the Scandi Shortwave Southwards and this allows the quick route to cold. The GFS/ECM don't, they send it off East and as a result we end up with spring like weather for a while. 

The GEM whilst it doesn't send the shortwave South so it has moved towards GFS/ECM in that respect, it's not a horror show with low pressure quickly undercutting the high from the East, so not perfect but much better than the other two.

GEFS are an improvement over the 18z as well but given how much they've flipped in the last 3 runs alone, I'm not entirely sure that means anything either way.

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1 hour ago, london-snow said:

Yes facts and science and that where the met comes into its own they have so much more data available to them and have highly paid professionals in the meteorology field and that’s why I feel upbeat about the outlook, until they change their wording then I’m a believer.

 

Confidence in any NWP based forecast drops away exponentially after 96 hours.

Not that it stops us. :D

Edited by Mucka
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ECM Control is also not good for those wishing cold. The Mean seems to suggest both the Op and Control likely don't have much support among their own suites.

So, depending which way the wind is blowing (he he he, sorry), you can either decide that means are the way to go, or Operational's have seen the light (sorry again).

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Didn’t someone say that many cold spells that do materialise are often never modelled correctly till the 4/5 day point (bar 2010) I hope this is one of those cases and we see a big flip cold by the 12zs, and it starts by next Tue akin the the UKMO

Lunchtime Exeter update could be telling.

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FI seems to be about 96 hrs. Multi-op diversification stark even at short range.  F6B96F61-516C-4D7A-A0A9-76A96E9FCE54.thumb.jpeg.314001a36e4966216e9a1fd7c484f95f.jpeg

Unsurprising really given the record breaking events taking place in the stratosphere where there continues to be mindboggling dynamics tormenting the models. Every measure still heading towards record-breaking levels with no immediate sign of a reversal back to more normal parameters. The warming pattern forecast by the GFS looks confused to say the least if you watch the sister vortex’s path over coming days.

http://wxcharts.eu/?model=gfs&region=polar&chart=10temp&run=00&step=108&plottype=ens&lat=53.231&lon=-0.541&skewtstep=0

Nothing nailed on yet. 18th onwards looking like the break point. Might take a day or two for the fog to clear.

52598134-E4B0-471C-A11D-1D36467A6054.jpeg

Edited by supernova
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I have to say even by normal easterly standards this has been one of the worst in terms of drama thrown up.

Theres little confidence in any of the solutions because of the huge differences between outputs.

The trigger shortwave fiasco should though reach a resolution this evening as the key timeframe is now getting to T96 hrs.

One model or models are going to be eating a huge slice of humble pie tonight!

 

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3 minutes ago, jvenge said:

ECM Control is also not good for those wishing cold. The Mean seems to suggest both the Op and Control likely don't have much support among their own suites.

So, depending which way the wind is blowing (he he he, sorry), you can either decide that means are the way to go, or Operational's have seen the light (sorry again).

Cooked up some good puns there....

I would as i said yesterday stick with the operations at that range, of course the UKM may be right but its a 2 vs 1 (on established models) 

Roll on the 06,12z,18z00z outputs 

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ECM mean not great but again it has moved a bit to ICON between 72 and 96hrs...it just does not move enough to drop that shortwave in that period :/

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22 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

Only viewed what's been posted but from what I can gather it's Exeter's general cold lookout, UKMO, ICON, GEM, NAVGEM, GEFS and a few others? vs GFS OP & ECM

Quite happy then as it stands. When an Easterly is predicted I am far happier with the UKMO on board over the others, when this isn't the case i'd be more concerned.

Plenty to be positive about this morning.

I don't often follow the models during winter, but I personally think there is more to be positive about this morning if you want an early taste of spring.

It seems a lot of people on here pick and choose which model they favour from day to day, simply because it shows the colder option. The GFS or ECM Ops are not showing anything cold at all to my eyes- in fact we get mild southerlies later on on the GFS run (not excessively so, however).

The ECM does look very mild at times with more of a SW flow later on.

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Just looked at the SREF 03 hours run.

A huge spread shown at T87 hours with the low near Iceland and the shortwave low crossing out of the ne USA.

The SREF by the way is the short term ensemble forecast mesoscale model for the USA.

sref_namer_087_mslp.thumb.gif.8256883891f5c09cba9ebf878ac0d27e.gif

 

Edited by nick sussex
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Well, I expected continued crazy model divergence this morning. Safe to say we got it. FI 96 hours.

I coincidentally viewed the models in the perfect order of ECM, GFS, GEFS, GEM, ICON, UKMO

So it was a bit like coming back from being 3-0 down at halftime to drawing 3-3. Because of the inescapable direness of the ECM and the GEFS backing away from the early Easterly, it didn’t feel like coming away with a win, just a draw.

Didnt see the equaliser coming though, a fantastic out of the blue run from the U.K. model.

Onwards we go. Truly fascinating stuff. 

Edited by s4lancia
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Plenty of discussion and angst on here this morning about the way the models are trending so I thought I would put up some charts for people to see what the differences are.  Concentrating as before on the 23rd February, this is how the models see things in eight days time:

ECM          image.thumb.gif.d92538630f32cda611723fcf5a828d81.gif   image.thumb.gif.91f84dfc03f7e8d6642cf88557b52fc4.gif

GFS          image.thumb.png.e641e2ed6238cde9ef05537160d6ac95.png    image.thumb.png.0ce7bf8a42adaa3787f859d7a2e23aab.png

GEM         image.thumb.png.d716ad4bc2ac04c26d04167e06e815d4.png    image.thumb.png.bd7c1978a97d06d66f1dcf3f9066e9f7.png

JMA          image.thumb.gif.20c31320c0e322652058957ffb3003fa.gif    image.thumb.gif.4937e29f2ae6ba9360d1e48aab7862d6.gif

There are still many differences between these models by the 23rd although there is very loose agreement between the last three which indicates possible convergence, but there are still clearly many solutions possible over the next eight days.  One thing is clear - cold air is not far away from the UK and it is still very likely we will see lower than average temperatures towards the end of the month. 

Interstingly, the UKMO brings forward the start of colder conditions to +144h:

UKMO      image.thumb.gif.fef1475996b391f5c6e7742e6b3d65cf.gif    image.thumb.gif.7d1cca04e07bcf5db84b965a3e995731.gif

I still think this is too far out to be confident of the outcome though, and I doubt that the charts on the 21st February will actually verify quite like this.  Even so, everything still points to a cold end to the month with the possibility of snow especially in the east (to begin with).

Edited by Sky Full
.
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I must say, looking at the way ECM develops things in the 6-10 day period, it does seem to have completely lost the plot, regardless of what goes on in the nearer range; there should be more fight from the blocking in our locale and a SW-NE flow makes the least meteorological sense of all the possible outcomes.

GFS is at least finding some of the right ideas, with stronger height rises over Scandinavia than previous runs, and the 'tastiness' of the results are only really being hampered by the lack of trigger low in 3-4 days time. It is a bit shocking though how this model has a 1028 mb ridge right across C. Europe when the others show at least some degree of shallow disturbance sliding through.

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10 hours ago, E17boy said:

Good evening all I have been reading all the ramps here all week  and seeing what the models are saying. I have to say with regret that I am slowly seeing our cold spell getting watered down. I am no exper here and I may be completely wrong but I just have that feeling that we are beginning to head down the unlucky path.

i could just write here that it's ok because some of the runs have been good and I hope I am wrong in thinking this but the dark clouds of misery for cold lovers seem to be closer today.

There was always caution that was needed in these models that were showing some great output but 10 days down the line . But our hearts want this cold so desperately we fall into the trap of thinking maybe there is hope. 

The SSW was never a guarantee that we would get the bitterly cold easterlies infact we could be heading for early spring. I think there has been so much hype about the cold that it has stuck to us as if it is definately going to happen, but I am being realistic today. We can't change the weather but it will change our moods. 

I love the fantastic posts on here keep up the good work peeps. 

Take care 

all the best 😊😊

Hi good mornings peeps this is the post I did last night and I am for now from what I can see still going to stick to my view.

although it looks as if there have been some improvements on the models I still think the direction we are heading is far from solved. 

We have got three critical days for a big turn to our favour. This morning we still have spring on the horizon (that could be 1 outcome) looking Down at us. If by Sunday we can get all the main three players including ECM come on board than we have done it and that is for the short time not 10 day period, the fun and games of hoping and clutching straws for the 10 days ahead is now not  in our favour as time is running out. It's all serious business now no messing about we have three days to see changes that's my view and I am being realistic as can be although some posters might not agree. If we were in mid Jan still then time would be in favour, but we haven't got time left now and I think we all know that deep down, but we are still clutching on to straws. 

I did not want to sound downbeat in this post but this is reality and no more time for models to play games they have to come on board. I am going to give it 3 more days GFS UKMO and ECM please don't let us down this is critical now. 

Wishing you all a lovely day

all the best

Kind regards 😊😊

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Well I  had thought the models would  have honed in on an outcome by this morning but they haven,t. However in a three way fight with divergance at T96 for the UK. I would always back the Ukmet.

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Most inortant output of the day is exeters further outlook around noon time 

Edited by bluearmy
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