Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?

[That ECM]

1 hour ago, nick sussex said:

The thing I like about both the ECM 12 hrs and GFS 18 hrs run is the core of height rises is to the north then edges to the ne.

So the UK isn’t at the flabby end of the block as the cold pool advances .

Think of the core heights as the shepherd and his dog and the deep cold the flock of sheep.

If you have that strong block in a good position  it acts to force the sheep into line!

I must stop with these bizarre analogies! 

 

Happy days. We are discussing the position and the shape of the block one likes

[The Enigma]

1 hour ago, Raythan said:

Hope the snow gets in at day 6/7 @Catacol Iv never seen a Calcutta cup played with an orange ball ! Didn’t follow this crazy hobby in 2010 , but I quite imagine this was what it was like ! 

Actually the build up to December 2010 had a similar feeling to this,  the feeling that the charts were completely unnatural for these isles and also that nagging feeling that they couldn't really happen. There were several days in a row like the day just past,  with fantastic charts as the models honed in on the superbly wintery scenario that we all know unfolded. 

December 2012 still lingers in the mind too- the easterly that never was. This time looks very different though, almost all the teleconnections are playing ball and we have a record breaking SSW thrown in for good measure.  

Downgrades are likely to some extent as we are still talking well into FI before the real cold arrives and so the models will play around with the various outcomes but on the other hand if this is actually going to happen,  expect the unexpected I.e more ridiculous charts over the next few days.  

 

I'm expecting this 18z GFS run to not stand out so much in 48hours time... 

Edited February 18, 2018 by The Enigma

[ZK099]

0z running. Looking good at T9 hours 

[Weathizard]

0z icon looking very progressive compared to its 12z yesterday, not overly concerned but let's hope that doesn't continue

[SMU]

7 hours ago, bluearmy said:

 

[SMU]

GFS peachy @90 - slightly better than 18z - with another trigger shortwave

[Mucka]

Funny that ICON the model that led the way is now the one falling behind - or at least going for a much slower evolution to worthwhile easterly than previously.

Now going for a UK high which we would have to hopefully wait for to retrogress - no thanks. It is too late in the season to keep chasing, let's just land this thing.

I'm hoping GFS Op has a handle on this because it has shown a pretty clear route from where it was previously to where it now going. You can pretty much see the run to run progression - and it is good.

Edited February 18, 2018 by Mucka

[SMU]

UKMO solid @144 - 8/10

But GFS looking great @120 !!

[Daniel]

Here we go again beastly incoming 

[Daniel]

1 minute ago, Daniel said:

Here we go again beastly incoming 

Looks earlier aswell 

[Mucka]

14 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

UKMO solid @144 - 8/10

But GFS looking great @120 !!

Here are UKMO GFS comparisons at 144 since you are on mobile. Different ideas but both great in their won way.

UKMO looks like some GFS earlier output yesterday.

 

EDit

I'm sure some would be happy with this little snow maker running down the East coast. Who knows what surprises may crop up when we get nearer the time.

Edited February 18, 2018 by Mucka

[metaltron]

GFS looks risky, with the centre of the high pressure far away to the north. UKMO and GFS very different, wouldn't mind a middle ground!

 

Edited February 18, 2018 by metaltron
I'd be tempted to choose the UKMO, but don't know what comes next!

[Weathizard]

GFS at 168, building blocks very much in reliable timeframe now. It's not PERFECT but it's still pretty stunning, FI could be fun.

[geordiekev]

I have to say the run in to the SSW has been stellar to watch. Even with its ups and downs, like many say the positioning is not guaranteed to help us but the UK has certainly been gifted the block this time round.

Theres nowt getting past that block

[Mucka]

GEM a bit slower but also a little safer and here by day 10

GFS, here comes the Atlantic...

There goes the Atlantic...

Edited February 18, 2018 by Mucka

[Weathizard]

Stunning from the GFS again

[Daniel]

Deleted 

 

 

Edited February 18, 2018 by Daniel

[Ali1977]

Wow, great night/morning for upgrades and confirmation that a BIG FREEZE is nearly upon us. . Latest GFS showing lots of snow by end of this week 

[kold weather]

Great run but GFS once again has the upper high too far north for my liking. Ukmo better for sustained cold.

GFS basically pulls a Feb 09 and blows up a big snow event and then basically the cold is done by 240hrs. Id perfer a slightly slower and longer lasting evolution personally then a 3 day wonder shot then done.

[kold weather]

For anyone who is confused about my above post take a look at ensemble member 2 to see why the upper high setting up too far north is bad...cold doesnt even make it and we end up under a SE. Its not on its own either. 

MUST get the core HP a little south. Itsgoing to have huge bust potential if not and itd be a shame to waste a near perfect solution on a 36hrs quickie.

[Ali1977]

34 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Great run but GFS once again has the upper high too far north for my liking. Ukmo better for sustained cold.

GFS basically pulls a Feb 09 and blows up a big snow event and then basically the cold is done by 240hrs. Id perfer a slightly slower and longer lasting evolution personally then a 3 day wonder shot then done.

The GEFS are certainly taking the Easterly flow to our North on a fair few, not a great trend and one that will hopefully vanish and it’s not all GEFS - some are still awesome. We still get v cold for a fair few days, hopefully ECM shows something a little more prolonged.

THE CONTROL IS A ? for longevity but out on its own.

Edited February 18, 2018 by Ali1977

[ScottishSnowStorm]

6 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

The GEFS are certainly taking the Easterly flow to our North on a fair few, not a great trend and one that will hopefully vanish and it’s not all GEFS - some are still awesome. We still get v cold for a fair few days, hopefully ECM shows something a little more prolonged.

THE CONTROL IS A ? 

Surely we are going to go through a second period of model volatility like we have just been through with how it has handled the warming with how they handle how things will pan out come the second warming? 

We have got the first part getting there with heights to the north east and an easterly looking on the cards now we have to wait and see how the next part of volatility works out with concerns to the second warming 

[Ali1977]

2 minutes ago, ScottishSnowStorm said:

Surely we are going to go through a second period of model volatility like we have just been through with how it has handled the warming with how they handle how things will pan out come the second warming? 

We have got the first part getting there with heights to the north east and an easterly looking on the cards now we have to wait and see how the next part of volatility works out with concerns to the second warming 

Yeah, discussing GEFS beyond day 5 during an SSW is probably a little fruitless it has to be said, they have been all over the shot beyond then for a few days I guess.

[ScottishSnowStorm]

Short ensembles are looking good for here in fife with the mean around -10c 

[ScottishSnowStorm]

Definite step forward here compared to the 18z hopefully one for everyone as well