Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?

[WalsallWeather123]

Deep cold and snow showers piling in from east at T216

[kold weather]

FWIW take a look at the 12z ECM between 96-216hrs, and then look at the evolution of Jan 1987. Nearly identical. Won't be quite as cold at the surface purely because its almost March and the day is that much longer, but sub zero maxes by 240hrs for sure!

Great run and the upper high was perfectly placed.

[Banbury]

1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

That’s a huge understatement do you not see what is coming??

Of course just trying to keep a check on emotions

[MattStoke]

Here comes the cold. A bit earlier on this run -   

[Ali1977]

Great ECM by 216 with v v cold air hitting our shores, surely looking at T192 or even earlier it would only take a very minor adjustment to bring this much earlier - I expect the ENS will show this. 

Edit - 240 is ridiculously cold 

Edited February 17, 2018 by Ali1977

[SMU]

as highlighted earlier UKMO / ECM blend in a great place with the motion & building blocks already rolling day 5 day 6- We can still squueze a deeper easterly @168 - we just need a bit more northward developments

All in all though a fantastic last 3 days of model watching!

S

[Glosman]

I love it, watching the models swing from one side of the equation to the other. Last run was a major cold spell, and now,it suddenly becomes spring like. I will now put my Siberian hat back in the box !..until the next run,of course :-)

[ICE COLD]

Wow wow wow ? 

Edited February 17, 2018 by ICE COLD

[SMU]

& another boom to end the run... look at the proportion of the block- alligned perfect  to the strat-

 

[WalsallWeather123]

Everyone covered in -12 uppers

[Daniel*]

Things looked primed for this from roughly day 4 my gut was right this is very important to watch regarding too much energy I think that’s nonsensical it’s all about alignment of HP and stuff in near continent.  

[MattStoke]

By 240 hours - 

[SLEETY]

Wow again at the end,but the Easterly is already certain beforehand ,many great cold spells of past have easterlies just getting colder and colder as the days go by

[Deep Snow please]

2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Wow wow wow ? 

Always in the fantasy island though. Caution advised here, there's very little chance of that making it to it's own t+24.

[Daniel*]

Just now, Deep Snow please said:

Always in the fantasy island though. Caution advised here, there's very little chance of that making it to it's own t+24.

I disagree it was all set up to deliver well before this. This is just as likely as any other all cold.

Edited February 17, 2018 by Daniel*

[Coopsy]

7 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Unprecedented cold on the way for this time of year... BOOOM!

It’s still 9 days out...cautious optimism required 

[The Eagle]

At the rate with which the really cold air is being brought closer to the more reliable time periods I reckon we'll be in there by November...give or take.

[January Snowstorm]

Just now, SLEETY said:

Wow again at the end,but the Easterly is already certain beforehand ,many great cold spells of past have easterlies just getting colder and colder as the days go by

My memories of Easterly events is just that, colder and colder with snowfall usually taking about a week. Great model runs tbh with slight upgrades always possible!

[kold weather]

4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

& another boom to end the run... look at the proportion of the block- alligned perfect  to the strat-

 

Got to think the upper block is going to refocus towards Greenland by say 288hrs on this run,especially as the jet is still diving south-eastwards in the Atlantic. Certainly an epic run from the ECM, much better than the 12z GFS by a long shot (with the caveat that the 12z GFS itself is still decent.)

Worth noting that whilst far out, the building blocks for that cold easterly fall into place around 120hrs. If that is ok, the rest has a decent chance of evolving cold, though the longevity is still uncertain.

Edited February 17, 2018 by kold weather

[The PIT]

1 minute ago, Deep Snow please said:

Always in the fantasy island though. Caution advised here, there's very little chance of that making it to it's own t+24.

Yup would be nice too see if entering the reliable time frame of T96. Still a cool down definite as to how much time will tell. 

[ICE COLD]

Just now, Deep Snow please said:

Always in the fantasy island though. Caution advised here, there's very little chance of that making it to it's own t+24.

I'm quite aware of being cautious but it's not like it's just come out of no where there's been very cold runs the last few days and METO on board, so I'm aloud to get a tiny bit excited ? 

[nick sussex]

Wouldn’t it be great if this ECM run verified.

It would be really exciting to follow the now named by BA Wall of Russian Cold heading west and seeing those temps plummeting.

The ECM has an almost perfect block set up later. You can see though some shortwave activity is likely to form as that crosses the warmer North Sea .

That could be interesting as it hits the UK!

[MattStoke]

Previous run still had the cold air to our east at 240 hours. This run has the cold air spreading in at 216 hours. A step in the right direction for cold. The GFS too has moved things closer. Not long ago it had the cold not arriving until the start of March instead of the end of next weekend.

The real cold is still beyond the reliable time frame but it is being consistently shown, has been brought forward overall and the building blocks for it are in place closer to the reliable time frame.

Edited February 17, 2018 by MattStoke

[chionomaniac]

5 minutes ago, c00ps said:

It’s still 9 days out...cautious optimism required 

All I can say is that it is the kind of scenario that a severe cold spell is more odds on than not, but if it doesn't deliver then at least enjoy and save the synoptic charts - the likes of which we have never really seen before since I have been watching with any consistency.

Just to edit - we have seen -10ºC 850hPa temps reach the UK on many occasions but the shear size and depth and low temps of the possible cold pool has not been seen in the internet era.

Edited February 17, 2018 by chionomaniac

[Daniel*]

3 minutes ago, c00ps said:

It’s still 9 days out...cautious optimism required 

That’s not the point here it was aligned much more favourable that was evident from day 3/4 and as such we see this it’s not surprising this relative short time frame is crucial. We’ll know by Monday,