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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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Purga Accomplished

Purga

Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex
Posted

CMC (cross model chaos) then this morning! :D

GEFS trending to milder solutions in line with the latest Op / Control runs then.

EPS solidly favouring around 80% pro cold easterly evolution from mid next week in support of the OP.

Hint that MOGREPS-15 following the ECM path.....

ECM mean pretty bullish for what most want

image.thumb.png.bee03e4cedace5b0ec3a2062df63244a.pngimage.thumb.png.1cc69370b45797874c141bd23c1348f9.png

UKMO use a blend of ENS and are still favouring the colder solution. :)

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Purga Accomplished

Purga

Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex
Posted
9 minutes ago, steveinsussex said:

People are going to trust the ecm after the apparent over night data issues?! 

That's been resolved & a full dataset from the overnight has been used as normal - see below:

image.thumb.png.4f5818cff75d9ed900a2acbdae269fd3.png

:)

 

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted
4 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

gfs-0-102.png?6

GFS still say's no. The Jet still pointing in the wrong direction. 

gfs-5-102.png?6

The pressure charts don’t show much change, check out the 850s though - the cold is much nearer the UKU.K.

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Frosty_wsm Rising Star

Frosty_wsm

Posted
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms in the summer, frost fog & snow in winter.
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
Posted (edited)

I think some members need to take a chill pill and relax, imo the fact that short range hires models like the arpege are going for the height rises is a very good sign, I can't see a hires short range model being that wrong. 

Edited by Smartie
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TEITS Maestro

TEITS

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
Posted

Well im glad I have remained sat on the fence these past few days.

Following on from my post yesterday about the ensembles and you have to laugh at the 0Z GEFS ensembles and what a waste of time they have been. Remember the mean was once sat at -7C is now at +2C. Remember all those wonderful GEFS mean charts showing the blocking over Scandi/Greenland? The point is continue following the operationals during this spell of model mayhem!

The odds of the E,ly like the ECM shows remains at 35% for me, like yesterday. If I had to make a forecast I would say high pressure sat over the UK with the chance of this high extending further N&W towards end of the month.

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

The  Ecm ensemble mean went through a dodgy spell for a few days with the scandi block further away and poorly aligned but it's 00z is continuing to improve on yesterday's runs in terms of better blocking, closer and drawing in colder air from the east!:):cold-emoji:

ECMAVGEU00_120_2.png

ECMAVGEU00_144_2.png

ECMAVGEU00_168_2.png

ECMAVGEU00_192_2.png

ECMAVGEU00_216_2.png

ECMAVGEU00_240_2.png

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted

LP off on its jollies to the Canary Islands again instead of helping rebuild the ridge.

gfsnh-0-138.png?6

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SMU Maestro

SMU

Posted
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

Not really seeing any drastic change to GFS run from 12z

The GFS by 132 is totally different just because of the early changes...

EB7EC005-D01A-4E64-ACCD-6EB4893FF50D.thumb.png.48a5128e50e49617db21a9a6851489d9.png00A4F2F2-99EA-4C4F-B5C6-3F23ADB14C98.thumb.png.01a5c223d4746e87dc93ef11202bbd62.png

As said small steps - This evolution is based on split energy with focus on energy moving SSE - not GFS strongpoint...

Edited by Steve Murr
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Timmytour Accomplished

Timmytour

Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
Posted
1 minute ago, Mucka said:

LP off on its jollies to the Canary Islands again instead of helping rebuild the ridge.

gfsnh-0-138.png?6

YEp...thinking this is going to end up a springlike rather than cold end to the GFS run in high resolution

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jules216 Experienced

jules216

Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
Posted

I am very sceptical about achieving HLB within the month of February if we go by the trend of recent years,especially -NAO, the pattern of recent years is a flip to negative around March/April which is frustrating. Despite having so many favourable teleconections like low solar activity, -QBO, not too strong La Nina, we haven't had -NAO month in winter since March 2013!

Even if we analyze the recent MJO passage through phase 7 which was at very strong amplitude against the NCEP historical reanalysis which showed good support  of HLB around Scandi, it didn't materialise and if you look at the 500mb height anomaly comparison the biggest difference is NAO location around Greenland, with persistent vortex located there in winters since March 2013, I do not know what the reason for this persistent pattern is for 5 winters in a row! despite some eye candy FI charts in recent winters that buckled before we got to 120hrs forecast

 On the attached pictures you can clearly see some height similarities but the biggest culprit  is NAO!

There is a very unpleasant trend happening clearly with NAO and I am very suspicious about buckling the trend this winter, until well into March 

mjo ecmwf.gif

mjo february.gif

500mb height anomaly.gif

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted (edited)

 

3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Thats the azores not the canaries :)

Canaries are to the South where it is heading.:wink:

Edited by Mucka
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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted
43 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Wow , UK on a knife edge this morning. Cold feast not far away on the ECM run. Looking at the latest UKMO fax chart at 120h ,with a bit of tweaking is not to far off the ECM evolution at the same time. Think this one is still up in the air as so to speak. I think this latest fax is adjusted more to ECM thinking than their own model (UKMO) is showing at 144t. All adds to the uncertainty as to what happens just to the east of the British Isles over the weekend  regarding shortwave development and building of heights thereafter.  Great chart watching this. Must get out ! I have plenty of snow here but desperate you guys to share some soon.

C

 

fax120s.gif

ECMOPEU00_120_1.png

The T96/120 faxes are from yesterday’s 12z output 

they only update in the evenings 

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Leon1 Seasoned

Leon1

Posted
  • Location: Bath, Oxford
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy winters, hot and sunny summers with thunderstorms!
  • Location: Bath, Oxford
Posted

when are the updates of the charts anybody?

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted
Just now, Leon1 said:

when are the updates of the charts anybody?

What charts?

GFS 06z is updating now.

12z outputs at 4PM and 6PM this evening

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted
Just now, radiohead said:

The ECM Day 10 ensemble mean really is very good.

EDM1-240.GIF?16-12

Wow, that's an understatement.

Virtually the whole set must go for it.

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