Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?

[Daniel*]

2 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

276.. 26th February.. still waiting for that cold air to come on over

Synoptically, good charts showing. Cold air wise? Rubbish.

You have no patience it’s coming! Not preferred outcome but not bad at all..

Edited February 14, 2018 by Daniel*

[Allseasons-Si]

Just for comparison....

18z/12z

234/240

uncertainties,well nooooo!!!!

[ICE COLD]

If there's a run to show the uk's luck with cold weather then the GFS 18z is it . How on earth do we miss it with this -

[Spah1]

Some people moving on to the 00z after 120hrs is poor commentary. 

People never learn to let a run unfold. 

This is a fantastic chart and oozes potential. 

A long way to zonal from there. 

[Banbury]

2 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

You have no patience it’s coming! Not preferred outcome but not bad at all..

Totally agree it’s decent for sure 

[ICE COLD]

Ohhh it saves the cold for day 16 ?. 

[The Eagle]

JMA is fantastic (full run out now)

[Met4Cast]

Can we have a massive round of applause for the GFS which manages to get the cold in by the 384th hour? 2nd March we'll be freezing our fingers off!

I'm being deliberately sarcastic now, of course. But the points I made earlier still stand, if it fails at the first hurdle with the initial shortwave over Scandi which seems to be about 50/50 at the moment (we'll see what the 18z ensembles bring us) then we're left in a sortof no mans land with the high sitting over the UK until we can see either retrogression or undercutting from the European low. It just further complicates matters and when you haven't got much "time" of winter left, complicated isn't what you want to be seeing within the outputs. 

[KyleHenry]

3 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

276.. 26th February.. still waiting for that cold air to come on over

Synoptically, good charts showing. Cold air wise? Rubbish.

28th February? Can the cold do it?

Nope. 

Minor changes would make big differences, of course. But I don't quite understand the cheering for this run given what is being offered elsewhere, this is a poor halfway house as far as the UK is concerned.

If it transpires with this actual outcome below and with a WAA of this magnitude.

You will see the formation of an Omega block on a magnitude not seen since 2010. You’ve got to realise that the more energy that goes up then the stronger the block when it closes off. 

This would be a very very special event.

[Man With Beard]

10 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Eps clusters

op is in one of six clusters 

it has 9 members

the gem type solution has 8 members 

te largest solution has 13 members. 

Plenty of water to go under the bridge on this 

in the extended, one non wintry cluster of 30%. The other two clusters are blocked to our nnw and look to be where we would expect them to be 

They pretty much fit in with all the output - about a 70/30 split in favour of northern blocking above the UK between D8 and D15

[Allseasons-Si]

1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

They pretty much fit in with all the output - about a 70/30 split in favour of northern blocking above the UK between D8 and D15

Fits in with the cpc i posted earlier MWB

[ICE COLD]

14 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Eps clusters

op is in one of six clusters 

it has 9 members

the gem type solution has 8 members 

te largest solution has 13 members. 

Plenty of water to go under the bridge on this 

in the extended, one non wintry cluster of 30%. The other two clusters are blocked to our nnw and look to be where we would expect them to be  

I nearly missed this post from you BA , I was wrapped up in the excitement of the pub run coming out . Well that is good news on the eps at least we're not heading totally the wrong way . Cheers . 

[Bricriu]

6 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

JMA is fantastic (full run out now)

Too bad it's not rated very highly. The tension in here would disappear if was the ECM or GFS showing that.

[weirpig]

I think the ensembles really highlight the uncertainty. Usually you find the control follows very closely to the op . However during this phase they have usually been very different.   Let's see if the theme continues 

[Met4Cast]

Time for something that's actually model related.

Good ECM clusters, 30% go for a less cold setup with lows in the Atlantic (high too far North which was hinted on the GFS Op yesterday/this morning) but a larger percentage favouring good Northern blocking/low heights to our South.

ECM ensembles have remained solid despite the Ops refusal.

[The Eagle]

Control run 168

 

[bobbydog]

ok, it could be better but the high is still in the right place.

at the range we are looking at, it will still alternate between good and bad before this is settled.

the 18z is definitely better because i just found a pound down the sofa, which didn't happen during the 12z run.

[inghams85]

5 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

Control run 168

 

Cheers for ruining my next half hour on meteociel ????????

[Froze were the Days]

CFS 1 monthly run absolutely steadfast bringing in a 'real' easterly at the end of the month (24th onwards), very consistent at the timing of this over the last couple of days. Think back to March/April 2013 it was consistent then picking up the very blocked signal.

[The Eagle]

Going through the ensemble members and there has been a definite shift to milder Atlantic or sinking high based solutions. Not sure if majority but there are more of them. Trend speeding up perhaps.

Edited February 14, 2018 by The Eagle

[Mucka]

Taking a step back and looking at the last few days of output from ECM and GFS in an attempt to separate reality from expectation and perception.

ECM 

ECM has only shown cold upper air getting across the UK from the East in 1 of its last 8 runs. (12.5%)

GFS 00z and 12z only out to day 10

GFS has shown cold upper air getting across the UK from the East in 4 of its last 8 runs. (50%)

ECM and GFS ensembles

Both favour colder weather from around 21st/22nd but both have wide range of solutions and scatter with milder runs.

If we look at the lesser models then they are more optimistic about cold chances within the next 10 days.

It is impossible to come to any definitive conclusion except that there will be proclivity toward a more blocked pattern from around the 18th.

There is a low probability of cold pattern establishing itself from around the 20th

There is a little better than average probability of cold pattern establishing itself sometime last 3rd of Feb but lower probability that will be before last week of Feb.

 

All of the above based on current and recent output.

Things could look very different with new information.

 

 

 

 

Edited February 14, 2018 by Mucka

[snowray]

NAVGEM being remarkably consistent too.

 I do hope we get some agreement by tomorrows runs, this is feeling like a very long and tiring winter now of model watching, lost count of the number of times easterlies have popped up and then just disappeared. And I hope that this SSW does not ruin our chances of a nice Spring, last thing I want is easterlies going in to April and cold rain/sleet.

Edited February 14, 2018 by snowray

[tight isobar]

I won't deny' that the 18z ens are of somewhat concern...

But also have scatter bases' of  'perhaps' more notable colder members!..

Its a tight knit- scenario....

Variant in abundance!!!

The ops need to agree soon on the route in question....

Edited February 14, 2018 by tight isobar

[The Eagle]

1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

I won't deny' that the 18z ens are of somewhat concern...

But also have scatter bases' of  'perhaps' more notable colder members!..

Ifs a tight knit- scenario....

No matter what way we look at it the trend is in the wrong direction and I don't think anyone here believes the evolution of the smaller models will save the day. The weather will do what it will do but we need the GFS/ECM op runs to show change in the next couple of days.

[snowray]

1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

I won't deny' that the 18z ens are of somewhat concern...

But also have scatter bases' of  'perhaps' more notable colder members!..

Ifs a tight knit- scenario....

Well I guess that the colder members see it like our lesser models do, GEM, JMA, and NAVGEM might be on to something though, they would also concur with the Met Office updates. Wont take much I'm sure for one of those colder runs to pop up again as the Op by tomorrows runs.