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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards


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5 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

 you're wicked lol.. 

my car park is on an incline so I make sure my car's parked at the top when it snows..

Just make sure you don’t have a Mercedes, even on a straight road they spin and slide. I know that first hand as it did it to me. Probably the worst car we had had in winter conditions. Lol 

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Christ. Had to actually talk to the missus. Wife: You have been glued to that phone lately, you looking at porn or something? Me: Yes, yes I am... Wife: You dirty b****** what exactly a

Good evening Thought I would give a quick update on how things are developing in regards to MOGREPS and ECM (perfered medium range model currently) MOGREPS... Consistent signal throughout th

The SE contingent watching the radar about 4pm Sunday

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The beeb and METO are about the most used (both in terms of read by individuals and contracted to supply weather) of any of he organisations in the U.K. they are not going to call it till it’s firy nailed on.

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Evening all,

Well steady as she goes. The last few days model runs, have produced some of the most wintry looking synoptics, I've witnessed, since I started viewing model runs, on the internet, in 2003/04 and then became a member of this forum, in Jan. 2005!!

Just want to post up a few links. First one explaining the dynamics of "Lake effect snow", or in our case, "North Sea/Thames Estuary effect snow ".

In the United Kingdom, easterly winds bringing cold continental air across the North Sea can lead to a similar phenomenon. Locally it is also known as "lake-effect snow" despite the snow coming in from the sea rather than a lake.[31] Similarly during a north-westerly wind, snow showers can form coming in from the Liverpool Bay, coming down the Cheshire gap, causing snowfall in the West Midlands—this formation resulted in the white Christmas of 2004 in the area, and most recently the heavy snowfall of 8 December 2017.[32] A similar phenomenon can affect the city of Inverness in the Scottish Highlands, where cold north east winds cause heavy snow to form in the Moray Firth; this was the case with the White Hogmanay of 2009, which caused the street party to be canceled. Northerly and north-westerly winds can cause the effect to occur over the Irish Sea and Bristol Channel feeding snow into south-west England and Eastern Ireland. Western Scotland and the north of Ireland can also see snow showers from a north or north-westerly wind over the Atlantic.

263px-Caspiansatelliteimage.jpg
 
Lake effect clouds over Caspian Sea on Jan 07 2008

Since the North Sea is relatively warm (around 13 °C or 55.4 °F at the beginning of winter, typically 10 to 6 °C or 50 to 43 °F by the end), sufficiently cold air aloft can create significant snowfalls in a relatively short period of time. The best-known example occurred in January 1987, when record-breaking cold air (associated with an upper low) moved across the North Sea towards the UK. The end result was over a foot of snow for coastal areas, leading to communities being cut off for over a week. In recent years, lake-effect snow has been much lighter and less frequent. The most recent lake-effect snowfall event along the east coast of England was on 30 November 2017, coming four years after the previous event.[33]

Hopefully, we will develop a favourable alignment, to the flow and we can sit back and watch those bitterly cold 850 temps flowing over  the relatively mild temps, of the Southern N.Sea/Thames Estuary, do their worst.

Now a link to current sea temps, around, our coastal waters.

https://www.seatemperature.org/europe/united-kingdom/southend-on-sea.htm

Finally, a link to the Dutch radar site, to view, what's hopefully coming at us, everything crossed, during this spell.

https://www.buienradar.nl/

Really hope, I havn't jinxed this now.

Regards,

Tom.:hi:

 

 

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955  bbc  news 24 that the best one miles better then country file as for the bbc  i just dont were they geting   it from if you go by gfs ,and others  if they come uk will come to a halt!!

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6 minutes ago, Sweetdream said:

Just make sure you don’t have a Mercedes, even on a straight road they spin and slide. I know that first hand as it did it to me. Probably the worst car we had had in winter conditions. Lol 

lol..Any rwd is bad.. My wife had a Lexus in 2009 and she got stuck on a roundabout:laugh:

I've got a small Mazda which is front wheel drive. Another trick is too deflate your tyres a little in the snow so tyres have a wider grip.

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Just now, shotski said:

I’ve just checked Carols twitter account and there’s no mention of frozen Thames and six foot drifts. Absolutely disgraceful ?

Funny, that. Trying to be upbeat but keep seeing my area getting an inch of slush, as per usual! I just want to see a proper, white out blizzard. Then I’ll be content for another decade.

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2 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

lol..Any rwd is bad.. My wife had a Lexus in 2009 and she got stuck on a roundabout:laugh:

I've got a small Mazda which is front wheel drive. Another trick is too deflate your tyres a little in the snow so tyres have a wider grip.

Yes rwd. Not good at all. The problem with the Mercedes is that it was powerful even when knocked out of auto into gear shift the stupid thing just sat there and wheel spun. I think that’s why the recommend snow tyres lol. 

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6 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Funny, that. Trying to be upbeat but keep seeing my area getting an inch of slush, as per usual! I just want to see a proper, white out blizzard. Then I’ll be content for another decade.

Fingers crossed this time we’ll get lucky ? 

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5 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Funny, that. Trying to be upbeat but keep seeing my area getting an inch of slush, as per usual! I just want to see a proper, white out blizzard. Then I’ll be content for another decade.

Well my area sits in a basin so all the snow goes around the area and gets Peterborough to sawtry and  Cambridge,  so lucky if we get 1cm. I lived in March for 6 years and every year we had snow. Kids loved it. 

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3 minutes ago, Sweetdream said:

Well my area sits in a basin so all the snow goes around the area and gets Peterborough to sawtry and  Cambridge,  so lucky if we get 1cm. I lived in March for 6 years and every year we had snow. Kids loved it. 

I was being a bit flippant but living in the Heathrow area isn’t often great for snow. There's not much to suggest 10 foot drifts of snow and the snowpocalypse just yet. Deep cold is likely, so that’s a good start. Hope your area gets lots more than 1cm, that’s just no good!

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Just now, stainesbloke said:

I was being a bit flippant but living in the Heathrow area isn’t often great for snow. There's nothing to suggest 10 foot drifts of snow and the apocalypse just yet. Deep cold is likely, so that’s a good start. Hope your area gets lots more than 1cm, that’s just no good!

Everyone talks about the great 2010 well we had nothing everywhere else got pasted and an erea in east anglia was dry as a bone. Now that’s what you call bloody ironic. 

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2 minutes ago, Sweetdream said:

Everyone talks about the great 2010 well we had nothing everywhere else got pasted and an erea in east anglia was dry as a bone. Now that’s what you call bloody ironic. 

This! I remember most of the country under snow whilst we were having garden parties. There was a satellite picture of the UK with the wild headline of whiteout yet in Norwich is was as green as a green thing. Fingers crossed for this time round.

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6 minutes ago, runboy said:

This! I remember most of the country under snow whilst we were having garden parties. There was a satellite picture of the UK with the wild headline of whiteout yet in Norwich is was as green as a green thing. Fingers crossed for this time round.

Yeah and we were down for heavy snow only for it to change 6 hrs before the event.  That was also of an easterly flow.  Ne wind is better as that gets all of eastanglia and also a  a wash streamer starts up pushing them inland. 

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Tonights day 5 FAX chart

The beast is already arriving (528 dam line which the usual benchmark for proper wintry conditions).

fax120s.gif

You can also see the potential for showers from the disturbances marked by the troughs on the chart.

Edited by Captain Shortwave
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8 minutes ago, suffolkboy_ said:

For anyone who hasn't seen this, I highly recommend you have a watch! Now we know what some of the BBC forecasters are really thinking! https://weathertrending.com/2018/02/20/bitter-quickchat-next-weeks-extreme-cold/

Ha! My sceptical wife is now beginning to believe me after listening to that!

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45 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Tonights day 5 FAX chart

The beast is already arriving (528 dam line which the usual benchmark for proper wintry conditions).

fax120s.gif

You can also see the potential for showers from the disturbances marked by the troughs on the chart.

That should settle a few nerves - human input and a near perfect alignment for cold . We can but hope.

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54 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Tonights day 5 FAX chart

The beast is already arriving (528 dam line which the usual benchmark for proper wintry conditions).

fax120s.gif

You can also see the potential for showers from the disturbances marked by the troughs on the chart.

Dont think I have ever seen a dry line marked on a surface pressure chart for the UK, like there is to the west on this one.

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I recall the feb 2009 snow event wasnt being definitely forecast by the beeb or anyone else till the thurs/friday beforehand. Snow showers were forecast for the following Sunday and Monday,well we all remember what happened,10 inches here!! Worth noting that they were more concerned about an area of snow moving up from france on the monday evening,never actually happened.

I also remember the huge dump of snow in Hampshire/Berks/Surrey in Jan 2010,that only popped up in the forecast about 12 hours beforehand.

Small features can make all the difference in very cold weather. And looking at the  outlook from met office( wouldn't pay much heed to tv anymore) who have been more or less spot on for the last year or more with their outlooks,we are in for some fun and games!

Exactly where,when and how much snow,who knows? Just sit back,relax,and watch it unfold.

 

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Bbc forecast - will certainly get cold but severity and snow depend on whether main cold diverts to the south....we have all seen that one before, snow on the beaches in spain whilst we just get dry with chilly easterly breeze and a few grains.

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