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Captain Shortwave

SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards

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Just now, Steve Murr said:

 

The only frustration I have ( all be slight ) is we have seemingly lost a day of Easterlies to be replaced by SEasterlies- but cannot grumble - The SE can still deliver with the peak -16c air arriving in the SE flow...

S

Actually we only bend ESE briefly on Wednesday at the steering levels that matter (Wednesday morning) the steering level winds bend back easterly pretty rapidly through to about 15z on Thursday by which time frontal cloud may start to limit instablity anyway.

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7 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Actually we only bend ESE briefly on Wednesday at the steering levels that matter (Wednesday morning) the steering level winds bend back easterly pretty rapidly through to about 15z on Thursday by which time frontal cloud may start to limit instablity anyway.

The frontal cloud could well be a pain if this pans out as many expect with the front stalling across n France. No frontal precip and south of lincs there could be a lack of convective snow due to that shield 

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13 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Yep slap bang in the middle of that

Target is north of 10 inches -

The only frustration I have ( all be slight ) is we have seemingly lost a day of Easterlies to be replaced by SEasterlies- but cannot grumble share the wealth !!!!!!- The SE flow can still deliver with the peak -16c air arriving in the SE flow...

S

Don’t mind it moveing se as that means my location can do good as well. Just hope there is enough water between Dover and the French coast to produce though??

Edited by Tom Jarvis

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5 minutes ago, Tom Jarvis said:

Don’t mind it moveing was as that means my location can do good as well. Just there enough water between Dover and the French coast to produce though??

you need ideally >40 miles- but I dont think we get 'that 'SE as @kold weathermentions

Theres not many scenarios on record with deep cold SE flows but I do recall 2010 which went 100 / 110 degrees for a while &  SE london still did well with a Streamer - sort of Folkstone > Ashford > Maidstone allignment !

Edited by Steve Murr

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12 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Yep slap bang in the middle of that

Target is north of 10 inches -

The only frustration I have ( all be slight ) is we have seemingly lost a day of Easterlies to be replaced by SEasterlies- but cannot grumble share the wealth !!!!!!- The SE flow can still deliver with the peak -16c air arriving in the SE flow...

S

Yes I noticed it drying up with the SEly flow ahead of the LP moving up from the south, this has been brought forward by a day or so. I'm hoping that the milder air stays well to our south, in fact I would be far happier if we could just continue with the easterly and extreme uppers for another couple of days and then take our chances with what happens after that.

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Just drive back from west London to north Kent. Started at 8oC and ended at 4oC. It was dropping 1oC about every 20 miles ....it’s coming 

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This spell of weather looks much more impressive than 2009 synoptics. I’d be surprised if some in the region do not see at least a foot by the end of next week.

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Tomas Schaf., just  ramping it up again, on News24. First snow showers, arriving on the east coast, Monday morning, then suggesting the situation, going downhill, for the rest of the week, or uphill, for us!!:D

Regards,

Tom.

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28 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Yep slap bang in the middle of that

Target is north of 10 inches -

The only frustration I have ( all be slight ) is we have seemingly lost a day of Easterlies to be replaced by SEasterlies- but cannot grumble share the wealth !!!!!!- The SE flow can still deliver with the peak -16c air arriving in the SE flow...

S

Steve,

Are you really that optimistic for us here in NW Kent? 10 inches by end of Wednesday?

Best

Chris

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20 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The frontal cloud could well be a pain if this pans out as many expect with the front stalling across n France. No frontal precip and south of lincs there could be a lack of convective snow due to that shield 

Christmas Eve 2009 springs to mind here. Or may have been 2010. 2009 I think, but that’s precisely what happened. Was a neither nor scenario. 

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15 minutes ago, c00ps said:

Just drive back from west London to north Kent. Started at 8oC and ended at 4oC. It was dropping 1oC about every 20 miles ....it’s coming 

You should have said would have put the kettle on 

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45 minutes ago, Ben Blizzard said:

Sorry if this is a stupid question, but is the Aperge model a High Res. model?  Snow showers looking very thin on the ground as far as the end of Tuesday; I was under the impression that High Res. models were better at picking up shower activity as a result of convection? I'm still VERY new to all of this, so please forgive me if I'm talking utter rubbish! :rofl: 

Excited for this week though! :yahoo: 

I personally don't rate the Arperge model, some on here have mentioned that Met Office use it sometimes, but I find that it can be way out.

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The cold spell and associated met office advisory’s were just mentioned on bbc news. The headline was something like “BIG FREEZE TO HIT UK”. Am I dreaming...?

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41 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Its currently underestimating the precip heading into N.Germany from the Baltic (right disrtrubtion, but not enough) probably will be a trend that will continue into the north sea:

ARPOPSC06_6_4.png

https://m.accuweather.com/en/de/berlin/10178/weather-radar/178087

ps, on the radar, look at Gdansk, that area is topgraphically very similar to the SE and the estuary area, that should give you a good indication of what is to come!

 

Cheers for sharing! Will expect the same here next week.

Also, we will see more widespread snow because the North Sea is warmer than the Baltic, so greater temperature differential.

Edited by CK1981

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if it turns the wind SE there's a chance south coast could get big dumping it happened Dec 2009 a streamer developed and dumped 6inches along south coast when wind backed se

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Memories of the Snow Depth Cup. Good times.

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2 minutes ago, Biggin said:

Memories of the Snow Depth Cup. Good times.

Time to resume?...

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5 minutes ago, Biggin said:

Memories of the Snow Depth Cup. Good times.

Agreed altho you seen that tom is back and what it did to him..... 

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3 hours ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

EAGLESSS!
We love you we love you we love you and when you play we'll follow we'll follow we'll follow cos' we support the palace the palace the palace and that's the way we like it we like it we like it woahhhhhhhh!

Quality team and fans - Do you watch them much?


Plenty of snow for you guys this week, enjoy.

Ta Jay. Sure do watch them home and away mostly on a stream tho.

I will try and send some snow over  to you.

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5 minutes ago, Southender said:

Time to resume?...

Sorry Southender, no chance, my brain has already blown up once!!:D

Seemed to jinx, our snow prospects, anyway. Just as Chris Mantle ( R.I.P.), had designed a fantastic spreadsheet, for me.

Regards,

Tom.

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13 minutes ago, Southender said:

Time to resume?...

We need a volunteer do all the hard work :)

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7 minutes ago, TomSE12 said:

Sorry Southender, no chance, my brain has already blown up once!!:D

Seemed to jinx, our snow prospects, anyway. Just as Chris Mantle ( R.I.P.), had designed a fantastic spreadsheet, for me.

Regards,

Tom.

Yep tom, remember it well. Like I say good times. :)

Edited by Biggin

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