Jump to content
Holidays
Local
Radar
Snow?
Sign in to follow this  
Captain Shortwave

SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards

Recommended Posts

Mogreps-UK just within range of Monday afternoon (54 hrs) 

Itseems to have high resolution ensemble forecasting of convective activity so should have a good handle on what's to come. 

This would seem to tie in with Yamkin comment re upgrade to Amber warning as Met Office will be more certain of disruption 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I see Wednesday has now been given a Yellow warning for heavy snow. Reading through the outlook it looking like it could stay cold up until at least the 24th!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Morning All,

I am a complete novice compaered to most of you. How do you think Crawley West Sussex will do over the next few days.

Cheers

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, Nick F said:

 

But the 06z GFS still wants to end the deep cold on Friday after a spell of heavy snow beforehand, really knife edge to where the low goes now

GFSOPEU06_144_2.thumb.png.b2b6789e63eb245ea3b5693dab71bde0.png

I suspect, as is often the case with the GFS in these situations, that it's far too keen to blow away what is an incredibly dense cold airmass for the time of year in place across the UK.

Generally I tend to have more belief in the ECMWF in such situations as it tends to be the best of a bad bunch in terms of resolving anything cyclonic coming into a blocking situation so will be interesting to monitor this through the week, but I would expect most model runs to bring this feature as far north as the 6z in the next few days before slowly correcting South through the rest of the week. It's a bit unique because usually we are talking about systems disrupting from west to east, but one would assume the same modelling physics apply here.

Anyway regardless of that, looking at modelling for the middle of this week:

ECM1-120.GIF?24-12

We are likely to be in for some very snowy surprises with such a strong flow in conjunction with the intensely cold air in place. The flow by Thursday morning looks a little too SE'ly for us here but through Wednesday with the more direct E'ly flow I suspect we may see some more organised features heading inland which may be pretty poorly modelled - a completely different flow but Jan 2003 springs to mind here in terms of surprise features.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I wouldn't fret about the 06z GFS for the end of the week, synoptically possible but I suspect it will sit right at the top end of its ensembles (though who knows!)

Anyway no real surprise regarding the Met office update, 20cms around the thames estuary is highly probable, indeed could see double that in really favoured spots.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
24 minutes ago, PLANET THANET said:

I know its only one model but look at the coastal strip around thanet towards folkestone.....0 inches

ignore the white bits around the coast . . . it's just that the coloured pixel squares are missing

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Last couple of days things have changed a few times for us living in North East London.

At first both MetO and Netweather had us under Snow on Monday until Saturday, then Monday, Thursday and Friday and now its Tuesday, Friday (snow/sleet).

Really hoping we get enough to make a big snow man this time round otherwise my kids will be very disappointed, since I have been ramping like a school kid since Thursday!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, kold weather said:

I wouldn't fret about the 06z GFS for the end of the week, synoptically possible but I suspect it will sit right at the top end of its ensembles (though who knows!)

Anyway no real surprise regarding the Met office update, 20cms around the thames estuary is highly probable, indeed could see double that in really favoured spots.

Hi Kold. Seem to remember you used to live near me in Thurrock? What do you think chances are for your old area and currently mine up in Romford / Brentwood? 

Edited by Roadrunner

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, snowking said:

I suspect, as is often the case with the GFS in these situations, that it's far too keen to blow away what is an incredibly dense cold airmass for the time of year in place across the UK.

Generally I tend to have more belief in the ECMWF in such situations as it tends to be the best of a bad bunch in terms of resolving anything cyclonic coming into a blocking situation so will be interesting to monitor this through the week, but I would expect most model runs to bring this feature as far north as the 6z in the next few days before slowly correcting South through the rest of the week. It's a bit unique because usually we are talking about systems disrupting from west to east, but one would assume the same modelling physics apply here.

Anyway regardless of that, looking at modelling for the middle of this week:

ECM1-120.GIF?24-12

We are likely to be in for some very snowy surprises with such a strong flow in conjunction with the intensely cold air in place. The flow by Thursday morning looks a little too SE'ly for us here but through Wednesday with the more direct E'ly flow I suspect we may see some more organised features heading inland which may be pretty poorly modelled - a completely different flow but Jan 2003 springs to mind here in terms of surprise features.

Surprised GFS doesn't show LI of -15 as well :D

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, wintermaster said:

Morning All,

I am a complete novice compaered to most of you. How do you think Crawley West Sussex will do over the next few days.

Cheers

hi mate, i'm in horsham, basically anywhere in the region could get anywhere from a couple of inches to a couple of feet. if we get a thames streamer over us (which is fairly likely) then expect deep snow...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, wintermaster said:

Morning All,

I am a complete novice compaered to most of you. How do you think Crawley West Sussex will do over the next few days.

Cheers

Well I’m here in Horley/Gatwick, which isn’t the best topographically, tending to be shielded somewhat by the South Downs. I’m ‘expecting’ between 2-5cms by Weds here in Horley, using local knowledge as a guide, but with areas south and east of here and not far away (somewhere like Uckfield for example) to fare a bit better, and deeper into East Sussex better still. The high risk potential frontal event progged for Friday better for here.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Roadrunner said:

Hi Kold. Seem to remember you used to live near me in Thurrock? What do you think chances are for your old area and currently mine up in Romford / Brentwood? 

Yep your right I did. I think it will get hammered with snow, even moderate streamers have given several inches. the closer to the Esturary the better, I'd say for example somewhere like Lakeside shopping center could be looking at a foot, further NE you go totals will decrease but I still think its going to give very good totals to anywhere within 20 miles of the Thames, especally on the southern side.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

These two charts below, depict,, the 850 temp situation, close enough to the time of 2 thundersnow events,

25th DEC.1970

archives-1970-12-25-0-1.png

Thames Streamer event, which gave 4 inches of snow and a huge crack of thunder overnight, when I lived in Bromley, N.W.Kent. More snow showers, during the day, made it one of the few, truly white Xmases, I've witnessed, with snow falling on the day itself.

2nd FEB.2009

archives-2009-2-2-0-1.png

Fantastic Thames Streamer event, except for poor Paul Shermam, in Southend. Lived here, in Lee, London SE12 at the time. Stayed up most of the night, radar watching. Heard thunder, with Steve M., when Steve lived in Bexleyheath. Gave between 4 and 6 inches, here in Lee and Bromley but unusually more, further WSW, Croydon where I worked, had nigh on 8 inches, in the town centre and places like Guildford, closing in on a foot. A very unusual T/S event and superbly analysed by Paul S., at the time.

So you can see, the temperature differential, is expected to be more, in the early part of next week. It doesn't guarantee, thundersnow, of course, but the potential, is certainly there.

Regards,

Tom.

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, snowking said:

I suspect, as is often the case with the GFS in these situations, that it's far too keen to blow away what is an incredibly dense cold airmass for the time of year in place across the UK.

Generally I tend to have more belief in the ECMWF in such situations as it tends to be the best of a bad bunch in terms of resolving anything cyclonic coming into a blocking situation so will be interesting to monitor this through the week, but I would expect most model runs to bring this feature as far north as the 6z in the next few days before slowly correcting South through the rest of the week. It's a bit unique because usually we are talking about systems disrupting from west to east, but one would assume the same modelling physics apply here.

Anyway regardless of that, looking at modelling for the middle of this week:

ECM1-120.GIF?24-12

We are likely to be in for some very snowy surprises with such a strong flow in conjunction with the intensely cold air in place. The flow by Thursday morning looks a little too SE'ly for us here but through Wednesday with the more direct E'ly flow I suspect we may see some more organised features heading inland which may be pretty poorly modelled - a completely different flow but Jan 2003 springs to mind here in terms of surprise features.

Yes, I been thinking along on the same lines that the low keeps just south of the UK on Friday, the ensemble MSLP mean supports this and EC has kept it south and filled the low so far. GFS does seem to have an in built bias at removing entrenched cold too easily.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Even the good old weather Channel app has picked up on convective activity 🤗 “potential for significant accumulation” on Tue - never read that on there before!

CE43B22B-63BB-4B48-A17A-C52AFAD942A9.png

Edited by seb

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, Planet Stow said:

Last couple of days things have changed a few times for us living in North East London.

At first both MetO and Netweather had us under Snow on Monday until Saturday, then Monday, Thursday and Friday and now its Tuesday, Friday (snow/sleet).

Really hoping we get enough to make a big snow man this time round otherwise my kids will be very disappointed, since I have been ramping like a school kid since Thursday!

Slight issue, it'll be so cold that the snow may well be too powdery to actually build snow men with! 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
28 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Indeed, if the flow is near perfect anyone in and around the Thames Valley would do very well I think. The mouth of the estery is around 6-7 c with - 15 air that creates a temperature difference of 21 degrees and in the factor of the sun add all of sudden you have an environment that favours some pretty mega snow showers 

Not to mention elsewhere in the region too very encouraging stuff in the right direction for some pretty nice totals 

I totally agree, Surrey!

A few years back we did very well here in east Berkshire from a Thames streamer, with several inches falling in a short space of time.

This goes to show, it’s not necessarily an east only event.

Edited by CK1981

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Us brits are so fickle spotted a couple of comments ending this cold spell before it’s even begun lol, 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Wednesday is looking exceptional at the moment, massive lapse rates and ever lowering pressure combined with the wind shifting from E to briefly a touch south of east and back to ENE means nearly everyone will have skin in the game on Wednesday. Going real unlucky if you don't get at least one decent fall of snow in this cold spell, favoured locations are going to get buried for sure.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Very new to this forum but been following all the developments avidly. It’s looking good for East Anglia but Norfolk never seems to get much of a mention anywhere. 

Any ideas how Norfolk will fair? Specifically, the Norwich area. 

Thanks

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yh also not buying the GFS Solution for Friday. Have a feeling the Low will be around 50-100 miles south of the Uk probably near the Brest peninsula and keep the SE in strong North Easterlies. If thats the case I would not expect too much snow North of the M4. Now thats rare in itself saying that. Does have the look of a classic South Central and SW event though.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

And now AccuWeather as well. All falling into place 🤗

3-6cm Monday daytime, locally higher amounts in heavier snow bands.

 

19C11A5E-9245-47AD-92D4-949DD6C8B48A.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Set up looks great generally.  I hope the wind veers around a bit though. Would be nice to see the wind forecast to veer NE/NNE for a little while from my point of view. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, slater said:

Us brits are so fickle spotted a couple of comments ending this cold spell before it’s even begun lol, 

It’s not us doing that, it’s the GFS 😂

I don’t think it’s anywhere near verifying though, and expect corrections south over the next few runs.

That would really bury this region in snow.....fingers crossed!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Yh also not buying the GFS Solution for Friday. Have a feeling the Low will be around 50-100 miles south of the Uk probably near the Brest peninsula and keep the SE in strong North Easterlies. If thats the case I would not expect too much snow North of the M4. Now thats rare in itself saying that. Does have the look of a classic South Central and SW event though.

GFS 6z from 126h seems too progressive in bringing in milder air. I can see another outlier again!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...