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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards

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7 minutes ago, Frostbite1980 said:

Just had an email from JH warning of the the cold for next week.....certainly starting to ramp up the snow possibility from Sunday night onwards and comparing with the years 09/10 and March 2013 :friends:

Good afternoon Frostbite 1990.

Please excuse my ignorance but who, or what, is JH? Not John Holmes?

Kind Regards

Dave

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31 minutes ago, yamkin said:

That's very bad of Susan Powell spreading misinformation. I too have tweeted @bbcweather for an explanation as this is misinformation...............we should all tweet @bbcweather

Saw your tweet about Susan Powell on twitter 

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1 minute ago, Uxbridge90 said:

Why is there such a contract between the MetOffice and BBC? Doesn't MeteoGroup and MetOffice use similar/same charts? 

Seems irresponsible of the BBC to forecast dryness when there's a possibility of disruption - I imagine BBC Weather is probably the most viewed by those that don't have as much of an interest as many on here have. 

 

The MetOffice and Meteogroup are both service providers. Just like any other service provider they have to bid for the contract. Meteogroup undercut the MetOffice and hence why they now provide the BBC with the forecasts and data for both the TV forecasts and that on the website/Apps.

The BBC will only distribute the information that is given to them!

I don't know much about MeteoGroup, but the MetOffice have some of the best forecasters in the world, so I will continue to refer to their website.

 

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1 minute ago, claret047 said:

Good afternoon Frostbite 1990.

Please excuse my ignorance but who, or what, is JH? Not John Holmes?

Kind Regards

Dave

Hi Claret, no John Hammond from the Met :D

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Hellloooooo...

Long time member very little poster...

however here I am joining in in the run up to what could be a great week next week.

i need to dig out the sledges from the shed, my son hasn’t really seen large snowfall, he’s just turned 7. Having missed the great winters of 2009/2010!.

i have however purchased some proper snow boots! I don’t drive so I think (and hope!) they will be used next week!. 

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Unreal forecast ,people think their be no snow next week if the see that forecast 

 

ED53581D-2946-4944-8F6D-9FDC03CEC61F.png

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2 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Unreal forecast ,people think their be no snow next week if the see that forecast 

 

ED53581D-2946-4944-8F6D-9FDC03CEC61F.png

This means she has not even bothered to research the coming Big Freeze............very misleading by Susan

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People are looking at me blankly and like I'm from outta space when I warn them of the upcoming temperatures and snow risk. No one wants to believe me - had people at work say they bet me a tenner I'm wrong- tempting to take them up on it as could do with some spends for my boozy weekend on 2nd.

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1 minute ago, Essex Chelle said:

People are looking at me blankly and like I'm from outta space when I warn them of the upcoming temperatures and snow risk. No one wants to believe me - had people at work say they bet me a tenner I'm wrong- tempting to take them up on it as could do with some spends for my boozy weekend on 2nd.

I would have taken that bet and raised them £50 :rofl:

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Hi everyone, I asked a question but it took 45 min to be approved here so people didn't see it. What do you think about below:

What is the chance of good snow showers for Brighton on Sunday night and Monday? Or again are we going to see snow for Scotland and northern parts of the country?

Also, do you guys think we can get sea effect snow as the very cold air moving from the east and I checked sea tempratures they are warmer than the air.

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Yep everyone at works says I’m talking rubbish,it never snows here at end of feb they keep saying.

seem to forget mid March 2013 and the snow then.

NVM perhaps Susan Powell is correct and no snow next week then at all.

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What we have to remember most cold east winds is Dry air..may be that's why BBC and metO are being cautious. The flow needs to be with a bigger track over the north sea to give a snow event..The North Sea is at its  yearly coldest this week.

 

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10 minutes ago, Frostbite1980 said:

I would have taken that bet and raised them £50 :rofl:

There's still time - think I might be brave and say "bring it on" 😂

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9 minutes ago, clactongaz said:

What we have to remember most cold east winds is Dry air..may be that's why BBC and metO are being cautious. The flow needs to be with a bigger track over the north sea to give a snow event..The North Sea is at its  yearly coldest this week.

 

 

 

Edited by london-snow
Twice posted

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14 minutes ago, yamkin said:

This means she has not even bothered to research the coming Big Freeze............very misleading by Susan

No mention whatsover of Snow or even Risk !! How ??,

Given what all the models are suggesting, surely she has to mention Risk of Snow nxt week or am i missing something.

Is this pattern now just a bitterly cold dry  evolution.?:sorry:

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4 minutes ago, clactongaz said:

What we have to remember most cold east winds is Dry air..may be that's why BBC and metO are being cautious. The flow needs to be with a bigger track over the north sea to give a snow event..The North Sea is at its  yearly coldest this week.

 

SST’s are above average on the east coast including the SE corner. That combined with upper air temperatures of below -10 and a strong easterly wind is a recipe for large convective snow showers and that’s even before we talk about Thames/Wash streamers. If this easterly (as long as it develops as currently shown) is dry I will run round my local park with my pants on my head!

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2018/anomnight.2.19.2018.gif

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7 minutes ago, clactongaz said:

What we have to remember most cold east winds is Dry air..may be that's why BBC and metO are being cautious. The flow needs to be with a bigger track over the north sea to give a snow event..The North Sea is at its  yearly coldest this week.

 

 

Erm meto forecast entirely different than the bbc when it comes to precipitation. Have a look at the text in the outlook 👍

 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/mobile/forecast/gcpu7tnmn#?date=2018-02-20

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1 minute ago, Frostbite1980 said:

I will run round my local park with my pants on my head!

frostbite on the extremities  ouch !!

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Maybe the beeb will be correct, we just don't know yet but it seems odd not to mention the risk.

I thought someone posted the other day that they are using a lower resolution version of the ECM, so maybe it's not very good at picking up convection.

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I'm no fan of the BBC - it's output has become so dumbed down over the years, however on this occasion I think we have to remember that there's a significant cluster in the ECM ensembles that raise pressure over the UK and keep the lowest thicknesses South of the UK.  Whilst this cluster currently has no real backing from any of the other models that we see, the Beeb are probably right to wait another day before going too big on the Snow word.

Maybe if that cluster is hugely reduced tonight, we might see them become a lot more bullish; on the other hand if the number of members in that cluster suddenly increases, then they're going to be relieved they didn't go all in snow.

If they weren't so dumbed down though, they would be giving out percentage risks - e.g. 60% chance of disruptive snowfall next week as things stand etc.

 

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6 minutes ago, snowblind said:

Maybe the beeb will be correct, we just don't know yet but it seems odd not to mention the risk.

I thought someone posted the other day that they are using a lower resolution version of the ECM, so maybe it's not very good at picking up convection.

BBC's so called 'Dry' forecast for next week does not tie in with the the MetO's latest written forecast

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5 hours ago, Katrine Basso said:

It is the second day of moderate to heavy rainfall for Thurrock. The dampness in the air is affecting me badly as I am experiencing a lot of pain in my joints, more than usual.

It’s been horrible last 2 days hasn’t it - dry cold is the best thing for rheumatoid type pain can’t wait for the lower dew points and dry cracking air - might start seeing signs of it by end of today ..??

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1 hour ago, turkishfella said:

Hi guys, what is the chance of good snow showers for Brighton on Sunday night and Monday? Or again are we going to see snow for Scotland and northern parts of the country?

Also, do you guys think we can get sea effect snow as the very cold air moving from the east and I checked sea tempratures they are warmer than the air.

Brighton usually does good in this set up.. plus your location is good for sliders too.

I would keep checking in here for more updates nearer the time:good:

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40 minutes ago, PLANET THANET said:

frostbite on the extremities  ouch !!

Chilly Willy? :shok::cold:

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1 hour ago, Frostbite1980 said:

I will run round my local park with my pants on my head!

snow balls would take on a whole different meaning :cold::oops:

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