Jump to content
Holidays
Local
Radar
Windy?
Captain Shortwave

SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards

Recommended Posts

33 minutes ago, Roadrunner said:

Said it before but weather apps on your phone are very poor. Not showing much at all for my area still with best I could find being 2cm for Tuesday. Really? 

Same for me, Met Office app/web page showing less and less everytime it updates (now just light snow on and off) where as the BBC do seem to have it as more prolonged now...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
43 minutes ago, slater said:

 but just once can Norfolk have pics like this from Norwich City Centre Feb 91 

IMG_1260.JPG

That's not Norwich, it's Sheerness in 1987, the other end of the Isle from me. (Of course, I couldn't actually get to Sheerness as we were cut off for a week, with bread and milk airlifted in. It was great as an 8-year-old!)

 

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

First signs of "streamers" appearing on the models. Now I must make it clear, even these models will get it wrong I would put down £50 if I had it that most high res PPN look very different to actual this week. Two things 1) Its an unstable easterly flow, its near impossible unless we know any trough placements where PPN may form. 2) In these situations a very minute change in wind direction can make a massive impact and these are almost real time changes the models do not pick up. Also included within that is geographical location like I mentioned earlier in the week..

But to put it into perspective here are some of the current solutions on showers from  Monday early morning..

HILRAM

overview_048.jpg?2018022400

ARPEGE

overview_048.jpg?2018022400

ICON

overview_048.jpg?2018022400

There is a strong indication later on that Thames steamers are certainly possible also a high current chance of some kind of streamer setting up over Kent and Norwich.. To be quite frank, if someone in this thread gets no snow from now till next Friday I will be absolutely astonished. 

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
22 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

The apps are beyond useless. Ignore them!

i see you’re one of those die hard people who still cling to calling Romford as being in Essex lol!

Haha. I'm actually nearer Brentwood but I'm not the right shade of orange to claim I'm from that area. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looking good for our patch next week, especially further east. That low moving up from the south makes me nervous though. It’s definitely a snow machine for all, but we don’t want it to move too far north as that will mix milder air in for this region. Anyway, that’s a long way off and plenty to enjoy before then!

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A pleasing outlook on the Met Office website for the week ahead, -1C high on Thursday in London, maybe lower than this,

Met_London_weekahead.thumb.PNG.fb1c4f20d6fa08f9a8c9ea10fa50de62.PNG

Friday is still the big question mark with regards to that low coming up from France, but MetO keeping it right side of marginal with snow through much of the day, a brisk NE wind suggesting low staying to the south

5a912517cba6b_Met_London_Friday01_03_18.thumb.PNG.0b41917ef362e7cf10541f7a986d1036.PNG

  • Like 6

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, winterfreak said:

I was only 5 in 79 but do remember it. 1981 I remember clearly as the snow had drifted up against the hedge and our dad crept out and put Rudolph footprints, sleigh lines and reindeer poo (raisins) on Christmas Eve. Us three kids were spellbound looking at it....

What a great dad! 

I’ve got some of my nan’s photos of 1979 and 81 somewhere. I should see if I can dig them out!

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

KCC have just posted this 

 

Quote

We will be fitting snow ploughs to our vehicles for Monday. 
We need more room than usual to get past so if you park on a salting route please ensure there is sufficent width for us to get past.

 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
33 minutes ago, danm said:

Let’s get in the mood with a reminder of Jan ‘87:

 

Thank you for posting those! Well worth a watch.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, Surrey said:

First signs of "streamers" appearing on the models. Now I must make it clear, even these models will get it wrong I would put down £50 if I had it that most high res PPN look very different to actual this week. Two things 1) Its an unstable easterly flow, its near impossible unless we know any trough placements where PPN may form. 2) In these situations a very minute change in wind direction can make a massive impact and these are almost real time changes the models do not pick up. Also included within that is geographical location like I mentioned earlier in the week..

But to put it into perspective here are some of the current solutions on showers from  Monday early morning..

HILRAM

overview_048.jpg?2018022400

ARPEGE

overview_048.jpg?2018022400

ICON

overview_048.jpg?2018022400

There is a strong indication later on that Thames steamers are certainly possible also a high current chance of some kind of streamer setting up over Kent and Norwich.. To be quite frank, if someone in this thread gets no snow from now till next Friday I will be absolutely astonished. 

The HILRAM, pretty close to what the FAX chart is showing Sunday night with a front moving west introducing the cold air.

idossjfdowjodi.gif

That would be an organised area of snow in from the east, probably lasting an hour or so before clearing the region but might mean we wake up on Monday to a dusting quite widely perhaps.

Edited by Captain Shortwave
  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Bloody hell..The NMM LOVES the idea of a Thames streamer as early as Monday morning, also favours showers coming into Norwich and Norfolk Kent dry but fear not..

 nmmuk-26-54-0.png?24-07

Close of business Monday and most have already seen snow.. and thats day one of the 2018 Siberian express..

nmmuk-26-70-0.png?24-07

Also as mentioned by people much more knowledgeable on weather we could be working to quite a high PPN to snow rate. What this means is typically 1mm of shown PPN relates to APPROX 1cm of snow. But with such dry cold air the conversion could be much higher 1mm = 3cm ETC..

nmmuk-25-71-0.png?24-07

Factoring the above into play and taking the PPN total maps for end of play Monday.. Its very easy to see why 15cm is quite plausible in favored spots 10cm widely and 3-5cm elsewhere JUST ON MONDAY!!

 

 

Edited by Surrey
  • Like 8
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

What a great news forecaster Leonard Parkin was.He passed away not many years after the big freeze of 87 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yep the WRFNMM is very keen on streamer kicking off. Here is the total out to the start of the 28th:

nmm-26-96-0.png?24-07

The highest total there for our area is between 25-30cms which given what history has shown us is quite plausible.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
53 minutes ago, lottiekent said:

Morning 

It’s -1.4c with a dew point of -4c here in SE Kent. Lovely sunny start to the day!

Must remember to go out in the garden and put some fresh bird seed out for them today as (hopefully) there won’t be much to find on the ground from Monday onwards.

Thanks for the reminder, seed and peanuts out!

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

"@TomSE12 sorry to hear about what happened, but glad to see you on the recovery road. I do believe I damn well won your trophy for snow depths. I remember what an absolute mission that whole competion became in the end - you spent so much time on it. It was great fun.....thank you for the memories. "

 

Thank you, for those very kind words, Nikki. Yes that blasted, Snow Depth Cup competition, probably one of the reasons, I had a brain haemorrhage/stroke. Think my brain, literally blew up!!:)

Just remembered, didnt I tip you a winner at Cheltenham, on that Sunday before the meeting started. Think it was Mothers Day and a few of you ladies, were drinking, champagne. Think the horse was called Champagne Fever, or something. Good to know, my long term memory is coming back!!

Got up really early with the missus, before starting her 12 hour shift, at a Care Home, Chislehurst/Elmstead Woods border.Was promptly told off for that, "Infernal, constant clicking of your laptop". She does have a point though, her job is very stressful and she wants to relax, before starting work. Fortunately, all model runs will have finished, by the time she returns home tonight, at 7.15. Bless her!!, 

Overnight model runs still looking good , for a noteworthy spell. From my own POV, here in S.E.London, would like to see a bit more ENE, in the flow, for a Thames Streamer but let's wait and see!! Noticed some of the model runs, seemed to want to develop a west based  -NAO, as time goes on but lets enjoy, next week first.

Looking forward to seeing those bitterly cold 850 temps, starting to flow over the southern North Sea, late on Sunday and especially into Monday, should set it "bubbling away".

Like running a hot bath of water, in a freezing cold bathroom, before the days of central heating. You youngsters don't know how lucky you are!!. Try having a bath, in a freezing cold prefab,in Bromley, as a little 7 year old, in the 1962/63 Winter!!:cold:

Couldn't see clearly, to get in the bath safely, for all the steam rising. We're likely to see a temperature differential of 20c >, between the upper air and S.North Sea/Thames Estuary, come Monday. Pfft!! In my Bromley bathroom, it was more like an 80c, differential. "How"to make your own indoor, thunderstorms. Anvil heads, almost formed, in my bathroom!!

I feel a Jack Hargreaves, Fred Dineage and Bunty, moment coming on."How", puts right palm up!!  Don't worry youngsters, I'm not having another brainstorm!! Tv programme, from late 60s/early 70s. Right who said 1860s? :D  Please see link. below.

 

 

My wife, has an early morning shift on Weds but she could well struggle to get in!! Didn't have the heart to tell her this morning, after being told off, about a noisy keyboard!!  

Walked to work with Colette, a few times, in Dec. 2010, after all bus routes were taken out of service.The distance is about 2.5/3 miles ad was very hard going in 4 inches of snow. She works in Elmstead Lane and those of you that know it, it's fairly hilly, in places. In 2010, a gritting lorry, ran up and down the road, with plough attachment ( virtually unheard of in this location ). Elmstead Lane, lies on the northern extent, of the borough of Bromley and borders the borough of Lewisham. 

Anyway, enough of this old fools', ramblings!! Enjoy, the rest of the day and the remaining model runs, hopefully!!

Regards,

Tom.:hi:

Edited by TomSE12
  • Like 7
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, Mark N said:

Hi mate 👋🏻 . Yes thats what i was thinking. Just wondering people’s  views on how unstable it would have to be for showere to get even to central districts and further west. Troughs would be wonderful! 

Hi Saint! Hoping you beat Chippenham today! Help Oxford City out. :) 

Hello Mark,

I cannot make today's match at your place as my wife only came out of hospital yesterday afternoon. Please let us win. Is it true you now have a 3G pitch and therefore will not be affected by frost? At least it will not be as sandy/dusty as last time we met. My eyes itched for days afterwards.

Looking to our home game the following  Saturday, it very much looks as if it will be postponed. We will either find the pitch buried deep in snow, or flooded through  rain moving up from the south, if the depression continues on the route predicted by GFS. For the past 3 years we have not had any home games postponed as we have a good bunch of supporters will spades at the ready to remove the snow, but this time we will have very sharp penetrating frosts before the snow falls. This means the cold will be held in, rather than if the ground was wet/warmer at the time of snowfall the pitch underneath would remain soft.

My feeling is, and judging by the more expert posters on here, we will have snow and it will not turn to rain as the depression follows a more southerly track. 

After today good luck for the rest of the season and you are not relegated.

I will be listening closely to Claret radio this afternoon.

Kind Regards

Dave

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Latest MO forecast data tracks that Azores Low well south by next Friday 12pm, unlike their Ukmo op model. Will keep an eye out but keeps us on the right side of temps for whole duration. Fingers crossed. Might do a slip of the finger later and publish a chart:cold:

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, FiftyShadesofSnow said:

Latest MO forecast data tracks that Azores Low well south by next Friday 12pm, unlike their Ukmo op model. Will keep an eye out but keeps us on the right side of temps for whole duration. Fingers crossed. Might do a slip of the finger later and publish a chart:cold:

Seems the more plausible route. I really can’t see the low making inroads against such a strong cold block.

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
48 minutes ago, Surrey said:

To be quite frank, if someone in this thread gets no snow from now till next Friday I will be absolutely astonished. 

I will wait for you to be astonished then , when I report back no snow l.o.l :cold: :rofl:

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Think we need to strt praying to the ECM Gods. Showers are hit & miss . Some will end up wth 6 inchs plus. Others may get a dusting at best.

Friday is a different story if all goes well & the low slides along N.France/Channel

If thats happens we will all be happy.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

morning all,

So it looks like it could be an interesting week weather wise in the UK.  I am currently working near Munich and this winter has been very mild, according to the locals. I have only seen about 5 days of falling snow so far and none of that more than a couple of centimetres deep.

Anyway, I am flying in to Gatwick on Sunday night and out again on Tuesday and I am wondering what the chances of that happening are.  Getting in on Sunday does not look like  problem but by Tuesday things could be interesting given the way weather patterns work between the north & south downs.

I will be watching this thread with interest :-)

Take care and stay safe

FC

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

"Hmmm again more GFS like. Two runs in a row. Massive snowfall for many but dodgy for the SE. 

But this is still a long long way out in the circumstances".

quote above is just in from Man with Beard over on Mad thread 

 

edit...I dont know why I visit that thread, its like a rollercoaster of information and emotions

Edited by PLANET THANET

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
48 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Yep the WRFNMM is very keen on streamer kicking off. Here is the total out to the start of the 28th:

nmm-26-96-0.png?24-07

The highest total there for our area is between 25-30cms which given what history has shown us is quite plausible.

Great to see it suggesting showers affecting many in the region, hopefully proves right.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Nikkib74 said:

Oh and @yamkin......I have missed your exuberant ramps, I used to wait with baited breath on the whereabouts of the gritters and the news from the MetO, but have been lurking and following/enjoying your posts again recently. Good times!

@Nikkib74 Thanks for your comments. I will be releasing very interesting info soon :cold::yahoo:

  • Like 6
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×