SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards

[shotski]

1 minute ago, exodus said:

Does anyone actually have any ideas about whether we'll get uch snow or will it just be really cold?

No one has a clue at this range. 

36-24 hours before at best. 

[snowrye]

2 minutes ago, exodus said:

Does anyone actually have any ideas about whether we'll get uch snow or will it just be really cold?

Too early for that yet,troughs will show up at very short notice,and streamers can set up as well,just keep an eye out as it gets nearer,plenty of great people in this thread with superb knowledge,that will keep us all informed

[Mark Bayley]

Ignore the metoffice and bbc apps. They'll significantly underestimate the shower activity (especially at this range). Every model would give significant accumulations in the east of our region, with decent falls elsewhere.

 

Edited February 20, 2018 by Mark Bayley

[E17boy]

Goodmorning wonderful people just got to Milton Keynes for work from London and the sun is shining here but I can feel the nip in that wind today.

Hope you all have a great Tuesday 

Fingers still crossed the time is getting closer but still stay cautious. 

All the best 

regards ????

 

[Mark Bayley]

1 minute ago, E17boy said:

Goodmorning wonderful people just got to Milton Keynes for work from London and the sun is shining here but I can feel the nip in that wind today.

Hope you all have a great Tuesday 

Fingers still crossed the time is getting closer but still stay cautious. 

All the best 

regards ????

 

Won't be doing that next week.. ?

[exodus]

8 minutes ago, Mark Bayley said:

Ignore the metoffice and bbc apps. They'll significantly underestimate the shower activity (especially at this range). Every model would give significant accumulations in the east of our region, with decent falls elsewhere.

 

The likes of GFS precip charts currently show ore in the way of convective snowfall in the North rather than SE...

[Katrine Basso]

It is the second day of moderate to heavy rainfall for Thurrock. The dampness in the air is affecting me badly as I am experiencing a lot of pain in my joints, more than usual.

[Mark Bayley]

2 minutes ago, exodus said:

The likes of GFS precip charts currently show ore in the way of convective snowfall in the North rather than SE...

There is a longer fetch. It will require the likes of the NAE, NMM etc.. to provide more accurate forecsts (especially for our region). The current graphics are based on the mesoscale models. In any case shower and trough activity is hard to predict, in most cases it will be nowcasting. Only thing to be weary of is winds veering SE.

[Wivenswold]

2 minutes ago, Katrine Basso said:

It is the second day of moderate to heavy rainfall for Thurrock. The dampness in the air is affecting me badly as I am experiencing a lot of pain in my joints, more than usual.

Yep same here. Actually got a Hospital appointment this afternoon for my Rheumatoid Arthritis and at the moment, I'm not sure I can make it. 

Really cold, dry weather hurts too but in a slightly better way, if that makes sense.

[exodus]

6 minutes ago, Mark Bayley said:

There is a longer fetch. It will require the likes of the NAE, NMM etc.. to provide more accurate forecsts (especially for our region). The current graphics are based on the mesoscale models. In any case shower and trough activity is hard to predict, in most cases it will be nowcasting. Only thing to be weary of is winds veering SE.

What also seems quite interesting is a number of models are hinting at an undercutting channel low towards the end of their runs.... now that would be something special.

[Laurence Hill]

7 minutes ago, Mark Bayley said:

There is a longer fetch. It will require the likes of the NAE, NMM etc.. to provide more accurate forecsts (especially for our region). The current graphics are based on the mesoscale models. In any case shower and trough activity is hard to predict, in most cases it will be nowcasting. Only thing to be weary of is winds veering SE.

What will happen if the wind veers S.E.

[Chris101]

9 hours ago, Bricriu said:

I don't think there was a SSW  prior to the cold outbreak in 2010

Thanks for the correction @Bricriu and @Daniel*, i always thought it had started just before.

Cheers

[Mark Bayley]

2 minutes ago, Sharpedge said:

What will happen if the wind veers S.E.

Is less good for widespread snow showers, albeit good for the south coast etc..

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Thames streamers anyone? 

[username home]

2 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Thames streamers anyone? 

still won’t see snow in Kingston!!!

[FetchCB]

9 minutes ago, username home said:

still won’t see snow in Kingston!!!

Feb 2009 Thames Streamer living in Teddington.... Absolutely buried 

Workedin Canary Wharf but didn't believe me that I couldn't get into work as all they had was 5cm Paul Shermans definitive guide 

 

[throwoff]

Every run seems to get better and closer!

This is feeling good!

[Dami]

Although i'm not excited about this cold and snow, am washing cozy clothing and making a list of slow cooker meal stuffs, making sure we have enough hot chocolate mix and worrying about parents evening tomorrow although not necessarily in that order. 

Bubs is doing the north/south poles for project this term, so if it snows again it will at least help with the 'visit somewhere cold' part. 

Edited February 20, 2018 by Dami

[Mark Bayley]

So to summarise the 6z GFS

Sunday: Light snow showers in the east

Monday: Widespread snow showers 

Tuesday: Widespread snow showers 

Wednesday: Widespread snow showers

Thursday: Show showers

Friday: Heavy snow

Saturday: Heavy snow 

Sunday: Heavy snow...

Monday: Snow showers 

Tuesday: Snow flurries 

Wednesday: Dry

 

An insane run for snow, with very significant accumulations in flaoured areas. Although just for fun I'd suggest 20-30cm as a minimum (widely)

 

Subject to change of course, but shows how crazy some of these runs are!

Edited February 20, 2018 by Mark Bayley

[alexisj9]

11 hours ago, lottiekent said:

I thought you’d be getting excited by now@alexisj9? Like me, you couldn’t be more SE if you tried! 

I am just not got internet at the new house yet. Can't join in the fun here.

[Ellozee]

I'm remaining hugely sceptical in the face of all this.. accumulating evidence. So many of the runs from all the models look amazing, but if I had a penny for every time I've been disappointed by a 'cold spell' possible 'snow shower' or a huge 'spanish plume' thunderstorm that either missed by miles or never materialised.. I'd be a rich man! (I'm a poor man damnit) so for now it's fingers crossed and keep patiently watching for evolution of patterns. I was born in '89 so missed the 87 snows and was too young to fully recall 91. I'm also a hobby landscape and wildlife photographer, so this forthcoming promise of winteryness is tantalising as ever! Just stay grounded and expect sleet ?

[Southender]

Well just been having this discussion with @ThamesStreamer offline.

How long until the METO update the cold weather alert?.....if everything stays as it is currently showing, then there has to be a Red alert by the weekend?....It smashes the thresholds out the park?

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/cold-weather-alert/#?tab=coldWeatherAlert

Keep those fingers crossed everyone, no balls up now, we are so close to something very special....

Edited February 20, 2018 by Southender

[Essex Chelle]

So if this happens - what's the timescale and duration? Just 1 day of snow falling 2 3 10?

[Southender]

5 minutes ago, Essex Chelle said:

So if this happens - what's the timescale and duration? Just 1 day of snow falling 2 3 10?

Detail hard to pin down yet Chelle. But IF and a big IF everything stays as currently modelled, then most if not all of next week will see temps at or below freezing during the day and with it the chance of snow cropping up from showers/streamers or even frontal. It can all still go very Pete Tong and we need to get to at least Thursday/Friday really before we can be assured the "deep" cold is coming. IF we do, then during the weekend and into early next week we can start looking for the snow.

Edited February 20, 2018 by Southender

[Ellozee]

7 minutes ago, Essex Chelle said:

So if this happens - what's the timescale and duration? Just 1 day of snow falling 2 3 10?

Current predictions could range from 1-2 days of light snowfall, all the way through to around a week of showers. Of course, due to the nature of snow, regional differences are likely, some places may see little to no snow, whereas others may see some accumulation. An uneducated guess from me - if you are based in Essex, expect to see some light flurries over the coming weekend, although not much, and then if current models are correct, the possibility of a more organised snowfall during Monday night or Tuesday. Until we reach Thursday or Friday this week, it's almost impossible to nail the details.

Edited February 20, 2018 by Ellozee
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