North west regional discussion

[Joe Bloggs]

6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Great post Joe..

My childhood snow events were almost exclusively east/North easterlies..

The bbc/meto text is a pretty huge upgrade - and the models could still be underplaying convection at this range.

TBH i think i'm going to give euro 4 a miss this week as it just annoys me every time i look at it!!

If EC is right the cold spell will extend to next sund/mon and by that time i will be happy for spring i think.

 

I will join you in giving Euro4 a miss

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Joe Bloggs said:

I will join you in giving Euro4 a miss

Yeah!

Everyone in the North west just BOYCOTT euro4 !!

It hates us lol.

[karyo]

Guys, the euro 4 is only a problem when we have marginal situations and keeps the snow on the high ground. It should be fun to watch in a day or two.

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, karyo said:

Guys, the euro 4 is only a problem when we have marginal situations and keeps the snow on the high ground. It should be fun to watch in a day or two.

well you might be right K but i have never seen that misery of a model suggest laying snow in our region even when we have had laying snow in our region.

So, with that in mind i'm going to give it a miss

[Iceaxecrampon]

42 minutes ago, iand61 said:

Dodge with that last sentence are you Di Oxberry in disguise. 

i know what you mean though, by mid January 2010 I was sick of shovelling snow and driving on icy roads packed with double parked cars.

Time to Cabin Up 

[Backtrack]

10 minutes ago, Joe Bloggs said:

I’ll just leave the latest Arpege here... ;-)

Yeah top model that. Shows rain falling around the Liverpool Bay Area haahah!! Useless those charts, absolutely useless. 

[Mokidugway]

Defo increased ppn for our region, aperge  is dog food bt.. 

[karyo]

3 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

Defo increased ppn for our region, aperge  is dog food bt.. 

It is the only one that brings the trough here so I will take it! haha

You should do fine with the gfs projection which takes it to Cumbria

[Joe Bloggs]

16 minutes ago, Backtrack said:

Yeah top model that. Shows rain falling around the Liverpool Bay Area haahah!! Useless those charts, absolutely useless. 

Yes no chance of rain that’s for sure. Just powder snow. 

Good to see that we have precipitation forecast though. I’ve just checked all the other models and none of them look particularly dry. 

[Alexis]

23 minutes ago, Backtrack said:

Yeah top model that. Shows rain falling around the Liverpool Bay Area haahah!! Useless those charts, absolutely useless. 

Roll it on an hour and it shows heavy snow over Liverpool Bay!

[Backtrack]

4 minutes ago, Joe Bloggs said:

Yes no chance of rain that’s for sure. Just powder snow. 

Good to see that we have precipitation forecast though. I’ve just checked all the other models and none of them look particularly dry. 

Topographic lift is less relevant when the flow is particular strong. Tied in with hopefully some high(ish) lapse rates and painfully low temps and dps, showers shouldn't have too much of a problem sailing over the Pennines. 

For those saying the rain shadow won't be in effect at all- yes it will. As always, regardless of what it is, topographic lift will always take some 'power' away from the showers, meaning that either side of higher ground receives the highest amount of PPN before the shower dissipates completely. 

Hard to see from current modelling how anywhere west of Manchester's higher routes will see lying snowfall from this setup. Yes it'll be sub-zero by day and night but couple that with the time of year and that's no match for the power of the sun. I'd like to remind everyone that we're only two weeks away from the first moderate UV indexes of 2018 in the SW. That's enough to give those with fair skin sunburn. If it can burn skin, what do you think it'll do to a light covering if snow? Farewell! 

I think our best chance comes from the breakdown. A classic battleground, but then marginality comes back into play. Cold yes, but not snowy for the north west of England as per usual really. 

[Joe Bloggs]

6 minutes ago, Backtrack said:

Topographic lift is less relevant when the flow is particular strong. Tied in with hopefully some high(ish) lapse rates and painfully low temps and dps, showers shouldn't have too much of a problem sailing over the Pennines. 

For those saying the rain shadow won't be in effect at all- yes it will. As always, regardless of what it is, topographic lift will always take some 'power' away from the showers, meaning that either side of higher ground receives the highest amount of PPN before the shower dissipates completely. 

Hard to see from current modelling how anywhere west of Manchester's higher routes will see lying snowfall from this setup. Yes it'll be sub-zero by day and night but couple that with the time of year and that's no match for the power of the sun. I'd like to remind everyone that we're only two weeks away from the first moderate UV indexes of 2018 in the SW. That's enough to give those with fair skin sunburn. If it can burn skin, what do you think it'll do to a light covering if snow? Farewell! 

I think our best chance comes from the breakdown. A classic battleground, but then marginality comes back into play. Cold yes, but not snowy for the north west of England as per usual really. 

I don’t agree with much of this post, simply because it doesn’t correspond with my (admittedly limited) experience of these events in the past. 

Think Feb 1991 and December 1996. On these occasions snow showers pushed as far west as North Wales. We will have to see. 

I have been lucky enough to see the internal Met Office guidance for next week and they make a specific point of saying that because of the significant nature of the cold pool, the sun’s effect will be largely minimal. Thought this was an interesting point and it is very easy to assume that given the time of year, solar influence will be significant - apparently not the case. 

Edited February 24, 2018 by Joe Bloggs

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, Joe Bloggs said:

I don’t agree with much of this post, simply because it doesn’t correspond with my (admittedly limited) experience of these events in the past. 

Think Feb 1991 and December 1996. On these occasions snow showers pushed as far west as North Wales. We will have to see. 

I have been lucky enough to see the internal Met Office guidance for next week and they make a specific point of saying that because of the significant nature of the cold pool, the sun’s effect will be largely minimal. Thought this was an interesting point and it is very easy to assume that given the time of year, solar influence will be significant - apparently not the case. 

Yes and TBH there doesnt look to be all that  much sun around next week anyway..

 

[Day 10]

3 hours ago, Stratocumulus perlucidus said:

I just leave these here! Thise on wirral peninsula wont be complaining if this verifies!

That would be worth the 5 year wait that's for sure, love that chart.

[Oakwell]

2 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

That would be worth the 5 year wait that's for sure, love that chart.

It is the hope that kills you

Still whatever happens I am enjoying the fresh chilly weather with plenty of sunshine

[Backtrack]

8 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

That would be worth the 5 year wait that's for sure, love that chart.

It's forecasting sleet though!

[Mokidugway]

8 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

That would be worth the 5 year wait that's for sure, love that chart.

That chart looks shi t e for south Cumbria ,tut,tut .....

[Day 10]

4 minutes ago, Oakwell said:

It is the hope that kills you

Still whatever happens I am enjoying the fresh chilly weather with plenty of sunshine

Better than being negative 

[Day 10]

1 minute ago, Backtrack said:

It's forecasting sleet though!

It would not be sleet!

[Backtrack]

13 minutes ago, Joe Bloggs said:

I don’t agree with much of this post, simply because it doesn’t correspond with my (admittedly limited) experience of these events in the past. 

Think Feb 1991 and December 1996. On these occasions snow showers pushed as far west as North Wales. We will have to see. 

I have been lucky enough to see the internal Met Office guidance for next week and they make a specific point of saying that because of the significant nature of the cold pool, the sun’s effect will be largely minimal. Thought this was an interesting point and it is very easy to assume that given the time of year, solar influence will be significant - apparently not the case. 

It'll help to fuel some showers over water that's for sure. But usually an easterly in this part of the world isn't a damp squib. We benefit from having the Pennines to our east and it helps us to see sunnier conditions. Wait and see I guess, but I fully expect to see sunshine and scattered light snow showers. 

[Backtrack]

Just now, Day 10 said:

It would not be sleet!

My point exactly. The charts people post are useless!

[Joe Bloggs]

Just now, Backtrack said:

It'll help to fuel some showers over water that's for sure. But usually an easterly in this part of the world isn't a damp squib. We benefit from having the Pennines to our east and it helps us to see sunnier conditions. Wait and see I guess, but I fully expect to see sunshine and scattered light snow showers. 

Yep.

To be honest I agree with you that east of the region is definitely favoured. We shall see. 

Exceptionally cold whatever the outcome. 

[cheshire snow]

Well this is were I say Goodbye to this thread until next Friday(if I can get home)

Wish me luck I am off down to the SE For a Family break(Booked well before this cold spell was forecast)

Hope you guys get snow and enjoy

will obviously be peeking on my phone to see how you guys up here are doing.(Wont post any pictures from down south on this thread probably make you)

Good luck to all.

C.S

[Joe Bloggs]

Latest fax charts show a feature passing across us btw http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack2.gif

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack2a.gif

[karyo]

4 minutes ago, Joe Bloggs said:

Latest fax charts show a feature passing across us btw http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack2.gif

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack2a.gif

Good news! The 6z ICON has also upgraded the precipitation associated with this feature.