North west regional discussion

[Mokidugway]

 Meanwhile in the NW ...........

[Spah1]

I don’t really care if I only get 10cm if everyone else gets 40cm. 

My kids will still love it.

[Spah1]

Just now, Mokidugway said:

 Meanwhile in the NW ...........

Dude don’t even joke. 

I feel physically sick thinking of missing out. 

[Spah1]

But hey ho let’s see what happens. 

[SP1986]

I'm almost speechless at the overwhelming consistency in the models. I can't quite believe what I'm seeing.. usually I'm quite sceptical and reserved about these things, but it is looking like historic cold spell.

My gardens time is up almost certainly, but I'll just start it again later on in the Spring.

[iand61]

1 minute ago, Mokidugway said:

 Meanwhile in the NW ...........

No it can’t be the NW, it’s not drizzling.

[chicken soup]

Just now, SP1986 said:

I'm almost speechless at the overwhelming consistency in the models. I can't quite believe what I'm seeing.. usually I'm quite sceptical and reserved about these things, but it is looking like historic cold spell.

My gardens time is up almost certainly, but I'll just start it again later on in the Spring.

How do you us faring...grimly?

[Cheshire Freeze]

It really depends how far N the instability gets. if we manage to find ourselves under the blue areas on the pressure charts then, given the projected uppers, there is no reason why showers wouldn't be able to penetrate this far in land. Bear in mind that by now the sun is strong enough to initiate some over land convection. Therefore, any showers during the daytime should be able to sustain over land where they might not be able to in December and January.

Even if we miss the core instability, there seems to be a wide spread of low 850s outside of this core zone which would bring night temps down to about -10C IMO under clear skies.

[SP1986]

Just now, chicken soup said:

How do you us faring...grimly?

Not at all.. if you are talking snow.. I think we will all get snow in the next 2 weeks.

[Spah1]

We need some serious troughs to make their way over the Pennines. 

[Mokidugway]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

It really depends how far N the instability gets. if we manage to find ourselves under the blue areas on the pressure charts then, given the projected uppers, there is no reason why showers wouldn't be able to penetrate this far in land. Bear in mind that by now the sun is strong enough to initiate some over land convection. Therefore, any showers during the daytime should be able to sustain over land where they might not be able to in December and January.

Even if we miss the core instability, there seems to be a wide spread of low 850s outside of this core zone which would bring night temps down to about -10C IMO under clear skies.

Initially you would but increasing snow cover to the east would decimate any convection Aaroony old bean ..

[Deep Snow please]

Just now, Spah1 said:

We need some serious troughs to make their way over the Pennines. 

But surely if, and it's a big if, charts like "that ECM 2.0" come off we will?

Whilst I'm going be mighty jaffa cakesed off that I'm not in the north east for this event where I used to live if it comes off, I can still see a decent amount coming from this.

[chicken soup]

1 minute ago, SP1986 said:

Not at all.. if you are talking snow.. I think we will all get snow in the next 2 weeks.

Hope your right SP but my experience of easterlies are we miss out on the snow....cant recall an easterly as powerful as this one though.

 

[Wardlegacy]

12 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

We need some serious troughs to make their way over the Pennines. 

A proper easterly like this (if it happens) has brought us deep  snow in the past. 1987 brought us a foot of drifting powder snow. 1995 (think) brought us 8” 1991 I was living in South London so not sure what it was like up here but I lived in london in its snowiest ever spell!

Edited February 19, 2018 by Wardlegacy

[Spah1]

6 minutes ago, Wardlegacy said:

A proper easterly like this (if it happens) has brought us deep  snow in the past. 1987 brought us a foot of drifting powder snow. 1995 (think) brought us 8” 1991 I was living in South london ao jot sure what it was like up here but I lived in london in its snowiest ever spell!

How? 

[iand61]

1 minute ago, Wardlegacy said:

A proper easterly like this (if it happens) has brought us deep  snow in the past. 1987 brought us a foot of drifting powder snow. 

Agreed, some of the best snowfalls i’ve seen over the years up here have come from easterlies.

just need a strong enough flow and embedded troughs and bingo.

oh and usually non of that crap marginality we get from the west and northwest.

[dodge]

1987 was 31 years ago, how many times since then as an Easterly brought us nothing but snow grains, ice pellets and snizzle at best.  Yes the charts are giddy beyond next weekend, but i'm taking them with a pinch of skepticism at the moment.  Just up to the weekend is all I'd lay a bet on at present.

[Wardlegacy]

1 minute ago, dodgeredee said:

1987 was 31 years ago, how many times since then as an Easterly brought us nothing but snow grains, ice pellets and snizzle at best.  Yes the charts are giddy beyond next weekend, but i'm taking them with a pinch of skepticism at the moment.  Just up to the weekend is all I'd lay a bet on at present.

Absolutely I am not convinced yet. The last proper easterly was 1996 maybe? 2009 brought us a fair depth even if it was a short spell. Does anyone know what it was like in 1991 in the northwest?

[Deep Snow please]

There's discussion of a potential path to a Greenland high on the back of this Scandi high in the mod thread, that's more to our benefit, right?

[Day 10]

8 minutes ago, Wardlegacy said:

Absolutely I am not convinced yet. The last proper easterly was 1996 maybe? 2009 brought us a fair depth even if it was a short spell. Does anyone know what it was like in 1991 in the northwest?

Not really checking site (honest) as i'm away. But quick answer is 6" of powder snow here on the Wirral Feb 91, I'd take that again in a heartbeat!

[dodge]

9 minutes ago, Wardlegacy said:

Absolutely I am not convinced yet. The last proper easterly was 1996 maybe? 2009 brought us a fair depth even if it was a short spell. Does anyone know what it was like in 1991 in the northwest?

I should do but I wasn't really into weather in 91 just finishing high school.  I do remember '87 and possibly one a few years before that because I was in junior school and recollect making Ice Igloos and sledging down hills full of snow.  I always thought the 90's beyond 91 were pretty barren and snowless.

[janmac]

I remember Feb '91. It started snowing one evening, just before half term! I remember listening to the footy on radio five and kept peering out of the letter box at the ever deepening snow!! Can't be accurate with depth, but it was enough snow to disguise the edges of the kerbs! Proper snow!! I also remember the year when the fire brigade had to come out and remove snow from the troughings as they were in danger of breaking away from the roofs!

[Wardlegacy]

3 minutes ago, janmac said:

I remember Feb '91. It started snowing one evening, just before half term! I remember listening to the footy on radio five and kept peering out of the letter box at the ever deepening snow!! Can't be accurate with depth, but it was enough snow to disguise the edges of the kerbs! Proper snow!! I also remember the year when the fire brigade had to come out and remove snow from the troughings as they were in danger of breaking away from the roofs!

I being stupid, young and probably drunk was convinced that it must snow in london that much every year. We had well over a foot of snow in Wimbledon! 

[Jan]

1 hour ago, shadowfax said:

  I have driven down to the South of France for many years which is 10 hours from Calais, now I drive to Dover and get the tunnel and go to bed at a Travel lodge place in Calais and then go to sleep, this means I get a good nights sleep. I get up at about 7 French time and start driving, if im on my own I would stop after 5 hours in somewhere like Beaune and then continue the next day.  On the way home I usually push it to Reims so I only have 1.5 hours to Calais as I usually drive home from Dover.  It was much easier when I lived in London!

Ive just looked up where you are driving to - that's one hell of a long way!

 

I know it's a long way, my other half has done it before, we are going to stop and we'll take turns in driving

[itsnowjoke]

Better to get off to the 24 hour garage as it's the ball and chains Birthday tomorrow